Updated NCAA Seeding

[Clarkmeister]

Lots still to be decided, particularly in the Big East and Big12 tournaments, but here's how I would seed the teams as of right now. Note that there is some expectation built in that Oklahoma and UConn will advance at least to their tourney finals due to their relatively easy draws. Late season collapses by KU (could've lost their last 6 and went 2-4 in that stretch)and OSU (lost 3 of last 4) are factored in

#1 seeds:
Illinois
UNC
Wake
Kentucky

#2 Seeds:
Duke
BC
UConn
Gonzaga

#3 Seeds:
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Michigan State

#4 Seeds:
Kansas
Louisville
Pitt
Villanova

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
#1 seeds:
Kentucky


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I know no one has really earned the 4th #1 right now, but with the loss to Florida today and the fact that they very well may not win the SEC tourney, I dont see this one happening anymore, but then again if its not kentucky who? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Popinjay]

Where's the University of Washington?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the University of Washington?

[/ QUOTE ]my thoughts as well.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
but then again if its not kentucky who? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. That's exactly where I was at. I had no one else to put there.

[MicroBob]

I haven't been following it that closely.....

but are Pitt and Nova really 4 seeds?

I thought they were in the 6 or 7 seed range.


I don't think gonazaga lands a 2 seed either.

and I would be surprised if Syracuse and Washington were in the 5 or 6 seed range.

not sure what to make of Okla and Okla St lately.

[hoyaboy1]

Right now Nova is a 4. Pitt I think might be a bit lower.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the University of Washington?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had 3 teams left for the last 2 spots. I gave the edge to the Big East teams because their conference is so deep. Pitt has some bad losses but their road record is freaking amazing. Nova is playing incredible. The Huskies had some great non-con wins, but just missed it. I certainly wouldn't argue with someone putting them in at a 4.

[Clarkmeister]

Pitt and Nova sure look like it to me. Nova is one of the really scary teams out there right now. Pitt has road wins @BC, @UConn, @Syracuse, the top 3 seeds in that conference. That goes a long way in my book.

The Zags play in what I think is a very underrated conference and they have an impressive non-conference slate with wins over Washington, @Okie St, vs. GaTech. 4 losses, but one is to Illinois. I just look at them and the 3 seeds and I see no reason to put them below any of them.

Washington certainly has an argument to be in the top 4 seeds based on their non-con schedule. No doubt about it. Syracuse just has too abysmal a record against the other top Big East teams to be in there right now IMO.

Oklahoma won the Big 12 and is their #1 seed and finished strong, beating KU and avenging a loss to Okie St and crushed both Texas and Texas Tech on the road. They earned that seed IMO - they are playing really really well right now.

[Rob Blackburn]

#1s:
North Carolina
Illinois
Wake Forest
Boston College

#2s:
Duke
Kentucky
Kansas
Louisville

#3s:
Oklahoma
Washington
Gonzaga
Arizona

#4s:
UConn
OSU
Pitt
Michigan State


Had to switch OK and OSU, I still think Kansas get the higher seed.

[Reef]

go Zags

[Rob Blackburn]

[ QUOTE ]
Where's the University of Washington?

[/ QUOTE ]

Washington is def. a 4 if not a 3.

[Rob Blackburn]

I think if the talking heads on tv are putting 7-8 teams from the BE in the tourney than BC leaps to a 1 by default after Kansas and Kentucky loses today.

[siccjay]

No way BC is a #1.

[JTG51]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if the talking heads on tv are putting 7-8 teams from the BE in the tourney than BC leaps to a 1 by default after Kansas and Kentucky loses today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you assuming BC will win the BE Tournament, or do you think it doesn't matter?

[Rob Blackburn]

I don't like them as a 1, but can you really leave Kansas or Kentucky in as 1s after todays loses? When its all done next week I don't even know if Kentucky will be a 2 seed even.

[Clarkmeister]

I don't think Kansas deserves any part of a 2. They've lost 4 of their last 6, *should've* lost 5 of 6, and barely won the other game. You just can't stagger into the tourney like that IMO, especially when you have the softest schedule in your conference (no road game @OSU, or @Texas). A home win squeaker over OSU and a nice win over Kentucky only go so far when you are falling apart right before the tournament.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
#4 Seeds:
Kansas
Louisville
Pitt
Villanova

[/ QUOTE ]

No way on both. Nova doesn't have a chance of a 4 seed and Pitt only has a chance if they take the Big East Tournament. They also meet up in the 2nd round of the tournament on Thursday.

[Rob Blackburn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think if the talking heads on tv are putting 7-8 teams from the BE in the tourney than BC leaps to a 1 by default after Kansas and Kentucky loses today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you assuming BC will win the BE Tournament, or do you think it doesn't matter?

[/ QUOTE ]

Clark just said give me your seeds as of TODAY, thats how I would do it, will it look like that next Sun., I seriously doubt it.

I only think two teasm have seeds locked up right now, thats Illinois and UNC.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like them as a 1, but can you really leave Kansas or Kentucky in as 1s after todays loses? When its all done next week I don't even know if Kentucky will be a 2 seed even.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about recency of losses unless there's a distinct trend. Kentucky's resume looks better than BC's right now when taken as a whole. BC has lost 3 of their last 5, don't forget. They don't get to jump over Kentucky just because Kentucky "lost last".

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]

I only think two teasm have seeds locked up right now, thats Illinois and UNC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wake doesn't need to win another game. They are a 1.

[JTG51]

[ QUOTE ]
Nova doesn't have a chance of a 4 seed...

[/ QUOTE ]

List the 20 teams in the country that are better than Nova right now.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
#4 Seeds:
Kansas
Louisville
Pitt
Villanova

[/ QUOTE ]

No way on both. Nova doesn't have a chance of a 4 seed and Pitt only has a chance if they take the Big East Tournament. They also meet up in the 2nd round of the tournament on Thursday.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, and I'm sure Washington will take the place of whoever loses that game (and maybe move higher if they win the PTT). But right now, Nova is smoking hot and Pitt has those great road wins.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I only think two teasm have seeds locked up right now, thats Illinois and UNC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wake doesn't need to win another game. They are a 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

BTW, they are playing right now on FoxSportsNet.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Nova doesn't have a chance of a 4 seed...

[/ QUOTE ]

List the 20 teams in the country that are better than Nova right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would only have to list 16 and that I could do. I'm also factoring in there that Nova's getting beat on Thursday. They're so hot, they barely squeaked by St Johns yesterday.

[ClassicBob]

OU was won the Big 12 regular season championship. If they win the Big 12 tourney, they would seem deserving of a number 2 seed, having come out on top of a tough conference. Maybe the conference's parity hurts it's members, but it's my opinion that it should help the winner. But that's just me.

[JTG51]

[ QUOTE ]
I would only have to list 16...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm... you've got me there.

[Rob Blackburn]

I gave the 2 to Kansas because of their 1 RPI rank.

I still rate Jayhawks stronger than OSU or OK overall, OK strong play at the end of the season leaps OSU and their #3 RPI rank, but cannot leap Kansas with the #1.

That was my thought process.


All RPI were based on Monday report.

[Rob Blackburn]

You think if Wake blows it out early in the ACC tourney, UNC takes a dive mid-tourney and Duke ends up taking the whole thing down. Duke can't leap frog Wake.

I think this may catapult Duke to a 1, maybe drop Wake to a 2.

This is a hard to believe scenario, but do you think Duke has no shot at a 1?

The Maryland loses and GT beat certainly seem to point to no shot at a 1, but the committee loves Duke as a 1.

[Clarkmeister]

The problem is that the RPI is terribly flawed. KU is a great example. Look at their schedule side by side with Oklahoma's and tell me how their RPI SOS is 1 and OU's is 36. There is no way in hell that their schedule was tougher. None. Let alone 36 spots tougher.

KU needed a miracle to beat OSU at home. They got spanked by OU. They had the same conference record despite a much eaiser conf schedule than either. Plus, they staggered home 2-4 in their last 6. I just see no reason to put them above either of those teams based on what actually happened on the court.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
You think if Wake blows it out early in the ACC tourney, UNC takes a dive mid-tourney and Duke ends up taking the whole thing down. Duke can't leap frog Wake.

I think this may catapult Duke to a 1, maybe drop Wake to a 2.

This is a hard to believe scenario, but do you think Duke has no shot at a 1?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Duke controls its own destiny for a #1. I just don't think that what they do impacts Wake at all. If they win the ACC tourney, there will be three #1 seeds from the ACC, that's all. I literally think Wake can lose tonight (up by 11 right now) and lose in the first round of the ACC and still be a #1.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
You think if Wake blows it out early in the ACC tourney, UNC takes a dive mid-tourney and Duke ends up taking the whole thing down. Duke can't leap frog Wake.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you need UNC to take a mid tourney dive? I think a better scenario is Wake blows it early, Duke beats UNC in championship game.

How are the seeds effected if Duke beats Wake and UNC in back to back games to take the ACC tourney down?

[Rob Blackburn]

You don't need a mid-tourney dive by UNC, you just need Duke to take the whole thing in any scenario. This is simply what I thought up as I looked at the projected layout of the ACC tourney.

Beating Wake and UNC would be the most ideal for the 1 potential with out a doubt an surely has to secure a 1.

[Clarkmeister]

hehe, I'm with MEBenhoe you certainly made it sound like Duke needed UNC to lose to someone else in order to win the ACCT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Rob Blackburn]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like them as a 1, but can you really leave Kansas or Kentucky in as 1s after todays loses? When its all done next week I don't even know if Kentucky will be a 2 seed even.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not about recency of losses unless there's a distinct trend. Kentucky's resume looks better than BC's right now when taken as a whole. BC has lost 3 of their last 5, don't forget. They don't get to jump over Kentucky just because Kentucky "lost last".

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not basing it on Kentucky losing last, I agree Kentucky resume is better without a doubt.

But BC higher RPI, better w/l and the fact that they didn't get smoked by any top teams(the only lose that was ownage was Pitt), which happens to be simply because they didn't play any is lucky for them and what pushes them to the 1 for me.

Kentucky, got the wood layed to them by UNC, they looked horrendous vs. USC, as well as in both Florida games.

Both teams non-conferance schedules look like crapola, but Kentucky especially so.

At the end of the day I think that 1 goes to whichever team wins their conferance tourney, with Duke in there to f it up if they win the ACC. All three winning Kentucky gets the lean.So your Kentucky at 1 is probably more correct han my BC at 1.

[Rob Blackburn]

Hey I am a UNC alum and huge fan, I obviously have to talk up my team somewhat just because.

I did the mid-tourney thing subconciously, thats the story I am going with.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think if Wake blows it out early in the ACC tourney, UNC takes a dive mid-tourney and Duke ends up taking the whole thing down. Duke can't leap frog Wake.

I think this may catapult Duke to a 1, maybe drop Wake to a 2.

This is a hard to believe scenario, but do you think Duke has no shot at a 1?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think Duke controls its own destiny for a #1. I just don't think that what they do impacts Wake at all. If they win the ACC tourney, there will be three #1 seeds from the ACC, that's all. I literally think Wake can lose tonight (up by 11 right now) and lose in the first round of the ACC and still be a #1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wake in a dogfight now, 39-39 with 12:00 to go.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]

Wake in a dogfight now, 39-39 with 12:00 to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 point game, 1:23 left, NC State with the lead.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Wake in a dogfight now, 39-39 with 12:00 to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 point game, 1:23 left, NC State with the lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great comeback by Wake. Paul runs and executes the play I expected us to try this afternoon. What a game, what a weekend of awesome hoops.

[wonderwes]

I am running a $25 bracket pool. If anyone is interested, send me a PM.

[nothumb]

[ QUOTE ]
No way BC is a #1.


[/ QUOTE ]

Unless they just absolutely rape everyone in their path in the BE tourney. Even then it's not a gimme, and I suspect UConn will bend them over big time anyway if they meet.

NT