The Ol' Check-Min-Raise

[jimdmcevoy]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($237.40)
SB ($186.15)
BB ($208.45)
<font color="#C00000">UTG ($203.75)</font>
UTG+1 ($103)
UTG+2 ($82)
MP1 ($203.70)
MP2 ($281.80)
MP3 ($576.85)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($222.45)</font>

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $9</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $7.

Flop: ($21) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, UTG calls $15.

Turn: ($51) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $35</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $70</font>

Villian had VP$IP of 76% and PFR of 14%

The way I see it, I have three options:

fold
call
all-in

For those who advocate the call, what's your plan for the river?

[MathProf]

I'm a noob, but I gotta think he has you beat here. I think he has a set. I can't see him playing an A9 or 10 10 this way. Flush draw does not seem likely. I fold.

[maldini]

what're his stats post flop? i struggle with this too but i think you're supposed to call more often than raising or folding with a maniac. but, i suspect he picked up a draw on the turn and is hoping to blow you off of big overs like AK-AJ or KQ. the smart play is probably to push but i'm not sure i could do that here. there are so many cards on the river that put the fear of god in you. seems like if you're gonna play you should do it on the turn.

[kongo_totte]

The weak-tight devil on my shoulder yells "fold". I haven't developed a nemesis to this devil yet, so fold.

[jimdmcevoy]

Villians stats:

W$WSF 34.44%
Went to Showdown 34.44%
Won money at showdown 38.71%

[jonnyUCB]

i like the bet sizes on both streets. Now its time to fold. Unless you've seen him bluffing before or he's seen you fold to this before, he has a small two pair or set. If he's semi-bluffing youre going to face a large bet on the river which you really can't call (too many bad river cards) unless you put him on a total bluff. Don't make "his call with any ppair" play correct by giving him the implied odds when he hits. you have the power.

[MisterKing]

Methinks he's got you here, but since you have position a call might not be horrible. You do have a small number of ways to improve even if he does have the straight, raggedy two pair, or a small set; and you may still be ahead with UTG making the all-too-common mistake of putting all raising opponents on AK. As4s/As2s seem possible as well.

All-in seems to be -EV here, since he's not going to fold a better hand, but will certainly call with one. Folding doesn't seem horrible, but I admit I'm uneasy about advocating that you do so here. You'd be waving goodbye to ~1/4 of your stack, but if you think you'd have a few more orbits vs this maniac, then I'd be more inclined to wait for a later hand where my edge was larger and better defined.

[swolfe]

is he position aware? how often has he limped UTG and with what?

i wouldn't like it, but i'd probably fold this

[jimdmcevoy]

I agree with most of you that this should be a fold. A tough fold, hard on the ego, but a good fold.

It was too bad I thought differently during the hand. I thought my hand was best, went all in, and was called by A/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif

[jimdmcevoy]

And btw I did not get unlucky, I was outplayed as I gave him better than the 10:1 implied odds he needed to call on the flop.

[soah]

Did you consider checking the turn with the intention of getting in one bet on the river (either calling or betting when checked to)?

[jimdmcevoy]

It crossed my mind, but I couldn't bring myself to do it on such a draw heavy board. I mean, every single river card was gonna scare me, some in more ways than one.

[soah]

They'll be scarier in a $120 pot than in a $50 pot.

[Allinlife]

I honestly don't see any hand that that loses to JJ here he'd check-minraise. I see slow played sets, and straights. just remember check-minraise, especially on later streets often signify great strength.

[maldini]

that explains why i have been paying off the nuts left and right lately. clearly my biggest leak. i keep thinking people are bluffing. they're not.