from bad to horrible

[dfscott]

I held off posting anything for a while, but I can't hold off anymore -- I don't think I have any idea how to play these things. I've played 150 11s, and while my ITM has held steady at around 40-45, my ROI has gone steadily down. It started around 25%, and now it's down to 7%. I'm at a loss at what to do. I've been trying to use Aleo's "Beating the Party 10+1", but either I'm misunderstanding it, or I'm just really, really unlucky.

I know most people will say "post some hands," but I don't have any idea what hands to post. I'm only playing 5 or 6 hands per tourney, and they don't seem particularly remarkable. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose, but that's just poker. I think the problem is more in the hands that I don't play, but without posting every hand I folded, I'm not sure how to get a check on that.

As far as "education," I've read HOH, but I think I actually got a little too loose after reading that, so I went back to strict 2+2 strategy. Most people said that there's not many books that might help, but someone suggested watching the 200s to see how they play, so maybe I will try that. But it seems like so many pots are won without a showdown, it would be hard to see what hands people are chosing to play.

I guess this is a cry for help. If most people's advice is "play 500 and then tell me if you're still losing," then that would be good news and I'll be glad to go back in my cave and quit whining. But I know that even over this small of a sample, these results are atypical. Do numbers like these likely indicate a gaping hole in my game, and if so, how should I go about finding and fixing it?

Thanks in advance for any responses.

[Voltron87]

So you have a 7% ROI for 150 SNGs and you're worried?

"Bad, horrible", "or I'm just really, really unlucky".

Wait until you start losing money to proclaim how bad your streak is. And wait a bit longer.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
So you have a 7% ROI for 150 SNGs and you're worried?

"Bad, horrible", "or I'm just really, really unlucky".

Wait until you start losing money to proclaim how bad your streak is. And wait a bit longer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I don't understand the stats exactly, but I thought you needed to post a 9% ROI in order to beat the rake?

[lorinda]

You've been playing SNGs for VERY little time and you're winning 16% above the rake.

The first thing you need to do is realise just how good this is.

I'll get around to being more constructive later, but when you hear of people who are getting 35% ROI and the suchlike, many of those people have been brought up on this style of poker for years.

You are now being paid to learn.

Lori

[lorinda]

Maybe I don't understand the stats exactly, but I thought you needed to post a 9% ROI in order to beat the rake?

The rake should be included in most stats packages.

Do you have more money than you started with? /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe I don't understand the stats exactly, but I thought you needed to post a 9% ROI in order to beat the rake?

The rake should be included in most stats packages.

Do you have more money than you started with? /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh! When stated that way, it certainly seems obvious. Yes, I have about 10% more than what I started with.

I'm not sure where I got that 9% figure from. You'd never guess that I was a math minor in college.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
You've been playing SNGs for VERY little time and you're winning 16% above the rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I understand this math.. can you elaborate?

[ QUOTE ]

The first thing you need to do is realise just how good this is.

I'll get around to being more constructive later, but when you hear of people who are getting 35% ROI and the suchlike, many of those people have been brought up on this style of poker for years.

You are now being paid to learn.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, and you make an excellent point. I'll go back to my studies now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

Meh. I don't see what your beef is.

You're winning. Your ITM is very nice. You haven't played enough STTs to even have signficiant stats to begin with.

So, good job! Keep up the good work....:)

Yugoslav
PS You better hope Citanul is still his temporarily reformed self when he reads this! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[lorinda]

I'm not sure where I got that 9% figure from.

That's the rake, but you are accounting for that in the $11 entry instead of $10 entry.

If you were booking entry fees as $10 , then you would need a 9% ROI to be level.

Edit:

I don't think I understand this math.. can you elaborate?

Sure. You pay 9% rake, which you've won back, and you've made 7% on top of that.
If the game was fair, you'd be winning 16% /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lori

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where I got that 9% figure from.

That's the rake, but you are accounting for that in the $11 entry instead of $10 entry.

If you were booking entry fees as $10 , then you would need a 9% ROI to be level.

Edit:

I don't think I understand this math.. can you elaborate?

Sure. You pay 9% rake, which you've won back, and you've made 7% on top of that.
If the game was fair, you'd be winning 16% /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah -- got it.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh. I don't see what your beef is.

You're winning. Your ITM is very nice. You haven't played enough STTs to even have signficiant stats to begin with.

So, good job! Keep up the good work....:)

Yugoslav
PS You better hope Citanul is still his temporarily reformed self when he reads this! /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks -- I guess I somehow expected that it was typical to at least be in the 20s for ROI for any Joe Shmo. I'm happy to work my way up.

I'll dry my tears and go back to playing poker.

[The Yugoslavian]

20% ROI isn't trivial....not any Joe Schmoe can maintain that at any buyin (do you see why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

Yugoslav

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
20% ROI isn't trivial....not any Joe Schmoe can maintain that at any buyin (do you see why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely misspoke there. Obviously, 20% ROI couldn't be the average. However, I meant that it seemed that most of the posters here seemed to sustain that. I now realize that it's not a common achievement.

[raptor517]

everyone that posts on 2+2 posts 100 hands and thinks they are going to become a professional. 9% over 100 is NOT a bad run. over 100 ive been probably -30% and +50%. also, even if u are a 15% roi or better player, you can still have an insane streak of breaking even. up to 700. its terrible.

anyway, on a brighter side, keep playing, keep reading and posting on 2+2, and your game will constantly improve. holla.

[Voltron87]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20% ROI isn't trivial....not any Joe Schmoe can maintain that at any buyin (do you see why? /images/graemlins/smile.gif ).

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

I definitely misspoke there. Obviously, 20% ROI couldn't be the average. However, I meant that it seemed that most of the posters here seemed to sustain that. I now realize that it's not a common achievement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far fewer 2+2ers earn a 20% ROI than you think. It is not easy. A lot of posters have a basic understanding of bubble play, the gap concept, etc, but most of them are about break even. The rake will beat them. They do not have the attention to detail and all around endurance to be 20% players.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Far fewer 2+2ers earn a 20% ROI than you think

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, I think there is a lot of truth to this statement.

Let's focus on the positives and some constructive criticism. The positive is your ITM percentage. If you're truly averaging 40-45% ITM, that's tremendous. I think a continuation statement to the above quote, is that Far fewer 2+2ers are averaging over 40% ITM over 500 SNGs than you think (I would predict that there's a lot of 34-38% ITM 2+2ers). I tend to think that your ITM results are easier to 'discover' as they probably require a smaller sample size to define. Good work, if you're able to maintain these numbers over the next 150+ SNGs, that's starting to tell you something.

On to the criticism. It's difficult to predict if there's anything going on with your ROI. I have an idea to consider. For the next 25 (ideally more) keep track of your starting stack when it gets to 3 handed. I would think these stats might lead to some intuitive criticisms than posting a few HHs. Get back to us (or me) when you're done.

One last thought. If you're ITM 40+% on the $10s, I think you should move to the $22s as soon as possible. There's the same amount of fish on the $22s, and more (marginal) folding equity on the bubble

[davehwm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Far fewer 2+2ers earn a 20% ROI than you think

[/ QUOTE ]
One last thought. If you're ITM 40+% on the $10s, I think you should move to the $22s as soon as possible. There's the same amount of fish on the $22s, and more (marginal) folding equity on the bubble

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. I've played about 170 SNGs (10+1) - I used to play limit. My ITM is ~40% and my ITM is ~18%. I have a little over the 30 buy-in bankroll for the 20+2s, should I be testing them out? I've always been timid.

[beeyjay]

yes, i agree with scuba chuck that the 20s are extremely minimally harder games for twice as much money which means you should be playing them if possible.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
For the next 25 (ideally more) keep track of your starting stack when it gets to 3 handed. I would think these stats might lead to some intuitive criticisms than posting a few HHs. Get back to us (or me) when you're done.


[/ QUOTE ]

Easy enough to do with PT (unless you specifically wanted the next 25). Here's the last 25 that I was ITM:

5100 - 2nd (the longest 3-handed game I ever played - 32 hands until HU)
2200 - 1st
1600 - 3rd
1600 - 3rd
3300 - 2nd
1400 - 3rd
1600 - 2nd
3200 - 1st
2200 - 2nd
710 - 2nd
1500 - 3rd
1200 - 1st
2500 - 2nd
1300 - 1st
1200 - 3rd
3800 - 2nd
3900 - 1st
660 - 1st
1650 - 2nd
2000 - 3rd
2600 - 3rd
2400 - 2nd
1700 - 2nd
3200 - 3rd
6000 - 1st

FWIW, I went on a tear last night and finished ITM 5 out of 6 times in a row, bringing my ROI up to 13% (I'm ignoring my 5 out of 6 losses at the 22s) and my ITM to 43%.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I went on a tear last night and finished ITM 5 out of 6 times in a row, bringing my ROI up to 13% (I'm ignoring my 5 out of 6 losses at the 22s) and my ITM to 43%.

[/ QUOTE ]
nice pic

[Paul2432]

If you are really concerned, try and get someone who you respect here to review an entire tournament. If you send someone the HHs they can use the replayer and review the entire tournament in 20-30 minutes and then post the hands where there is disagreement.

I will do it if you like, but I have not posted enough in this forum to have all that much credibility.

Paul

[raptor517]

it actually only takes about 15 mins to review a tourney with the replayer. holla /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
nice pic

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Stumbled on it on the web and I found it both appropriate and slightly amusing.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
If you are really concerned, try and get someone who you respect here to review an entire tournament. If you send someone the HHs they can use the replayer and review the entire tournament in 20-30 minutes and then post the hands where there is disagreement.

I will do it if you like, but I have not posted enough in this forum to have all that much credibility.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be great -- at Scuba's urging, I played a handful of 22's (about 10) with less than steller results (2 ITM, both 2nds). One or two of those might be good candidates, since I felt lost a lot of the time (I'll skip the one where I busted 10th). I'd love to have someone that knows what they're doing figure out what I'm doing wrong. I'd be glad to pay you for your time as well.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
That would be great -- at Scuba's urging, I played a handful of 22's (about 10) with less than steller results (2 ITM, both 2nds). One or two of those might be good candidates, since I felt lost a lot of the time (I'll skip the one where I busted 10th). I'd love to have someone that knows what they're doing figure out what I'm doing wrong. I'd be glad to pay you for your time as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

DF, you have like 2,000 posts. What other part of the forum are you coming from?

PM with some of your HH questions.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

DF, you have like 2,000 posts. What other part of the forum are you coming from?


[/ QUOTE ]

He's posted a ton in the Zoo and SSH.

It took me 30 seconds to figure this out.

It's taken about that long to write this post, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

I'll let others elaborate if necessary, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

DF, you have like 2,000 posts. What other part of the forum are you coming from?


[/ QUOTE ]

He's posted a ton in the Zoo and SSH.

It took me 30 seconds to figure this out.

[/ QUOTE ]

And don't forget the micro-limits.

I spent the last year or so working my way up from the .05/.10 limit games to the 3/6 games. I basically got sick of the grind and switched for a change.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
DF, you have like 2,000 posts. What other part of the forum are you coming from?



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



He's posted a ton in the Zoo and SSH.

It took me 30 seconds to figure this out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



And don't forget the micro-limits.

I spent the last year or so working my way up from the .05/.10 limit games to the 3/6 games. I basically got sick of the grind and switched for a change.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo, can you see the difference between your response and OP's?

[KJ o]

If you have PT, look at your VP$IP per level. It should be quite low on the first 2-3 levels (below 20?). It should then rise steadily. At levels 6+, it should probably be at 50+.

If you play HU where the one with the smaller stack has 8BB, and your opponent is a maniac who always pushes and always call your pushes, you will win 53% of the games. Almost all players who don't know this are too passive late, even if they are "maniacs" on level 1.

[swarm]

This comment: "I'm only playing 5 or 6 hands per tourney, and they don't seem particularly remarkable"

Paired with your listings of in the money with TOO high of percentage of 2nds and thirds compared to your 1st's leads me to believe you are playing a little too tight. There is a fine line between too tight and too loose, it takes some game experience to identify it.

I really suggest finding someone to look at full tourney histories and suggesting a few more plays that you could make throughout the tourney. Especially around bubble time.

Other things to look at are your big and short stack plays. These are very different approaches you need to take with each of these starting in level 3 in my opinion.

The main thing is your winning, not a lot, but your winning money which is going to allow you to learn more.

I remember feeling as confused as you are but starting 3 months ago a light turned mostly because of my trial and error experience and relentless scouring of boards and hand histories and my ROI has vastly increased and held at a higher level even as I have moved up into the 30's and 50's.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
If you have PT, look at your VP$IP per level. It should be quite low on the first 2-3 levels (below 20?). It should then rise steadily. At levels 6+, it should probably be at 50+.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... I don't get quite that loose. FWIW, my numbers are:

Lvl 1: 9%
Lvl 2: 8%
Lvl 3: 11%
Lvl 4: 18%
Lvl 5: 23%
Lvl 6: 28%
Lvl 7: 34%
Lvl 8: 35%
Lvl 9: 42%

[ QUOTE ]
If you play HU where the one with the smaller stack has 8BB, and your opponent is a maniac who always pushes and always call your pushes, you will win 53% of the games. Almost all players who don't know this are too passive late, even if they are "maniacs" on level 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm generally more aggressive then my opponents when playing HU. However, I'm not quite up to pushing/calling hands like 62o or 83o, but I will push with T9s and such. I generally end up getting caught calling with KJs and finding out my opponent has AJ.

It's really fun being everyone's science project...

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
This comment: "I'm only playing 5 or 6 hands per tourney, and they don't seem particularly remarkable"

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, maybe I'm exaggerating -- 5 or 6 is down to the bubble. Once we're there or ITM, I get mixed up in a lot more.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
DF, you have like 2,000 posts. What other part of the forum are you coming from?



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



He's posted a ton in the Zoo and SSH.

It took me 30 seconds to figure this out.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



And don't forget the micro-limits.

I spent the last year or so working my way up from the .05/.10 limit games to the 3/6 games. I basically got sick of the grind and switched for a change.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo, can you see the difference between your response and OP's?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm not a total trash poster, but I do tend to reply a lot to threads I start (as evidenced by this thread). /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ironically, I started a thread (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=micro&Number=868095&Forum= c4&Words=posts&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=868095&S earch=true&where=sub&Name=9546&daterange=1&newerva l=1&newertype=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Pos t868095) a while back complaining about having too many posts for my limited knowledge.

[barry111]

dfscott, Do you play on Stars at all? I play the 10+1 on PokerStars and I could swear that I have played you.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
dfscott, Do you play on Stars at all? I play the 10+1 on PokerStars and I could swear that I have played you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have, but I doubt you've seen me there at the SnGs. I cut my poker teeth at the PS .05/.10 limit tables back in March of last year before I built my roll large enough to move to Party/Empire around July (seems like years ago).

The only SnGs I played at PS were 20-30 5s and 6s back in June/July of last year. I also played about 1/2 dozen 5s in January of this year, but haven't played there since.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy enough to do with PT (unless you specifically wanted the next 25). Here's the last 25 that I was ITM:

5100 - 2nd (the longest 3-handed game I ever played - 32 hands until HU)


[/ QUOTE ]



Are you kidding???? 32 hands is the longest you've taken to get to HU on party?

As previously stated, I need to get on party.

[brad the fish]

Last week I was in a 10+1 game where it was heads up in level 2. That was fun to watch.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
5100 - 2nd (the longest 3-handed game I ever played - 32 hands until HU)


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you kidding???? 32 hands is the longest you've taken to get to HU on party?

[/ QUOTE ]

32 hands from 3-handed to HU -- not 32 hands from the start.

Party's fast, but it's not that fast.

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy enough to do with PT (unless you specifically wanted the next 25). Here's the last 25 that I was ITM:

5100 - 2nd (the longest 3-handed game I ever played - 32 hands until HU)


[/ QUOTE ]

Understood. I almost made a deposit!