NCAA Tourney: Take Illinois *and* NC or everyone else?

[Clarkmeister]

Basically, one can make this bet right now on the NCAA Tournament and get a little better than even money if one takes Illinois and UNC to win it all. IL is +312 and UNC is +336, both at Pinny.

Frankly, I think it's a great bet. I think they are heads and tails above everyone else this year and there's a huge chance they meet up in the finals as they are likely to end up in opposite ends of the bracket. Any reason to not make this bet? Do teams like KY, KU, Okie St., Wake, Duke, etc really scare anyone? I'm really thinking this is a good bet at a shade more than even money.

[MicroBob]

On Pinnacle you can make a specific wager on NC and ILL vs the Field.
It is +133 for NC and ILL....-150 for the field.


I didn't quite take EVERYONE else.

I took a handful of teams that I thought were realistic to win it and am getting about 2 or 3 to 1 on average on the whole thing.

I think there is a very good chance ILL and NC gets knocked out somewhere along the way.

ILL is good...but I think the Big 10 is pretty weak. (I made these picks and thought this before they lost to OSU today btw).

I'll be interested to see how NC does in the ACC tournament...obviously the ACC is better than the Big 10 and they are a good team. But not so much so that I think they can just mow through the field.


I think any of the top 16 teams (each region's top 4 seeds) stands a reasonable chance of winning it.

ILL and UNC could even be vulnerable in the 2nd round against a decent 8 or 9 seed like a Villanova or something.

I would put them at only 60-65% favorites perhaps against some of their sweet 16 through semi-final opponents like KAN, UK and even Duke, Syr, MSU, WAS and others.

Maybe they're 70% faves against some of these teams. But that could be 3 straight games with a 30% chance of getting knocked out in there before they even make it to the finals. And I would still give them a 15-20% chance of getting eliminted in the 2nd round against certain opponents.

Perhaps I'm underestimating them.

I just think the hype that ILL and UNC are getting as top seeds hurts the price you're getting on them.


FWIW -
I picked 7 teams:

WAS +2441
LOU +3140
SYR +2928
UK +1834
Duke +1523
KAN +1433
Mich St +3989

So i'm spending 7 units with a chance to win anywhere from
14 to 40 units and I'm reasonably happy with it.


Interesting to look at how the lines have changed since I made the picks a few days ago. I got a better price on WAS, LOU and Duke then what I would now. But I'm getting a worse price on SYR, UK, KAN and MSU:

WAS +1884 (-557 move)
LOU +2703 (-437 move)
SYR +3444 (+516 move)
UK +2034 (+200 move)
Duke +1390 (-133 move)
KAN +1731 (+298 move)
Mich St +4296 (+307 move)


I might add UConn at +1800 to this mix too....and mabybe AZ at +2616.

WF concerns me of course but at only +903 I'm not ready to take the plunge with them yet.

[slogger]

I'd be interested to hear what percentage of the time you guys think Ill./UNC is expected to win.

Given the typical volatility of the NCAA tournament, I can't imagine that one of the two will win more than 25% of the time.

Do you think I'm way off? I assume Clark thinks I am.

[Clarkmeister]

New prop on Pinny offers +525 on IL to win out. Since their price on IL to win the BTT is -265, that's an implied +381 on them to win the NCAA tourney, which I think is definitely an overlay. A stand-alone IL bet is +331, so it's a free .50.

I do like the UNC-IL vs the field bet. This reminds me a lot like the Duke-UConn year where simply no one else looked like they were for real. I just think the other teams are all massively flawed. The big concern with this is that McCants STILL isn't back. At this point, they are either being very conservative to keep him OK for the tourney, or he is very very seriously ill and won't make it back at all. Its starting to look like the latter.

Of the 7 teams you bet, I think only UK and Duke really have a chance. KU is a fraud and could easily be 0-6 in their last 6 instead of their still-unimpressive 2-4, and now Langford is hurt. SU is something like 1-6 vs the top 25. Louisville IMO isn't that good, I think CUSA is severely overrated. Michigan State simply cannot beat a good team on the road, I don't see how they win it all. I suppose Washington has a chance, so may as well take a flier on them at 24-1.