Calling an all-in when the EV is barely positive...

[chesspain]

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney ($20+2), Big Blind is t100 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

chesspain (t1170.00)
UTG (t3030.00)
MP (t1620.00)
CO (t660.00)
Button (t1720.00)
SB (t1800.00)

Preflop: chesspain is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of t50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t660</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, chesspain calls t560.

As illustrated above, I was the fifth stack out of six. If I put my opponent on any ace, I'm approx. a 40/60 dog. If I put him on any pair, I improve to closer to 45/55. According to a straight EV calculation, I need to be at least 41/59 for this to be an EV neutral call.

Given my position in this tournament, should I be looking to gain chips from someone who may be pushing a bit light (i.e. any PP). Or should I avoid a barely +EV play that will cripple me if I miss?

[TT_fold]

Even though this play may be slightly +EV in terms of CEV, it is almost definitely -$EV. Due to the gap concept and the nature of the payout structure, calls with a barely-positive chip EV become incorrect dollar-wise in single-table tourneys.

Just mess around with the ICM a bit and you'll see that calling here against the range [AK-A2, AA-22] is incorrect. Even if you knew your opponent had 22 here, you would be correct to fold.

[flytrap]

I'm assuming the bb is t100. If this is so, you have plenty of time to wait for a better hand. When the EV is close to neutral, you should pass when you have enough chips to hang around a while. It's the whole being a better player thing. That being said, he could easily have you dominated. KQ is a sucker hand, throw it in the muck.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Even though this play may be slightly +EV in terms of CEV, it is almost definitely -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. 3 reasons:
- He has a smallish stack now.
- There are 6 people left.
- Losing the hand leaves him with a playable stack of 510.

Running the ICM:
- Fold = 0.118
- Call/Win = 0.19, Call/Lose = 0.059

If he has a 45% chance of winning, the ICM is 0.11997.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you knew your opponent had 22 here, you would be correct to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQ wins 47.98% vs. 22. This gives an ICM of 0.129. Calling is clearly better than folding (0.118).

The OP has the 5th biggest stack. At some point, he has get to get some chips. You aren't going to get from 1100 to 10000 chips against 5 players with only blind steals.

[Beck]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is ICM?

[Khern]

The way I understand it, the "being a better player" thing refers mostly to postflop play and passing up marginal situations early in a tournament. There is very little "early" part of a SnG where post flop play is important.

I'm happy to see this thread. I've been making these calls, but I suspect the payout structure/survival aspect of tournaments might dictate that you should not. I'm eager to see more discussion.

-John

[microbet]

He might be good to go against 22, but I get he has 39.7% against Ax, any PP. Cutting out some of the low offsuit aces might be a better range which would make it worse.

I could be wrong though. This is the first time I've tried out pokerstove.

This makes me think of another factor in analyzing these range of hand situations that I think should be a separate post. Some kind of weighted range of hands. You can be pretty sure about the top end of the range, but only guessing about how low it goes, so maybe it should be weighted.

- To the ICM question - It is Independent Chip Model (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

[stupidsucker]

I fold this without thinking.

[Allinlife]

avoid coinflip calls unless dictated otherwise by great potodds, instead use those "calling chips" to bet/raise.

[raptor517]

yupp, fold is in order

[curtains]

I fold here too. The chips you are winning really are worth less than the chips you are risking in this scenario.

[Bigwig]

I would fold. I think you're getting the right price to call for chip EV, but unless you're not a winning player, or are in a tough MTT far from the big payout, it's a fold.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I know "call" is a 4 letter word in this forum, but come on guys. You bring up some nice concepts, but let's talk about the hand. This comes down to what cards you put the villain on.

I was going by the OP's 45%, but now you've forced me to use pokerstove. I really doubt the villian has AA-QQ. Pushing with these hands in this spot is silly and uncommon.

So, JJ-22 and Ax. Pokerstove gives me 40.88%. OK, that's probably a fold.

If I add any 2 broadway cards, it is 47%. As we saw with the 22 example, 47% is clearly +$EV.

Let me address some of arguments against calling that I've seen in this thread....
- "The Gap Concept"... You can use it to try to see what hands the short stack might push with here, not as an excuse to fold. According to the Gap Concept, the villian will push with hands worse than he might call with. Therefore, I can easily see him pushing with KJ, JT, or worse. Remember, he is going to post blinds on the next 2 hands and needs to do something fast.

- "Plenty of time to wait for a better spot". If you wait a 8 more hands, the blinds may have gone up to 100/200. If you don't steal before then, your stack will be blinded down to 770. That's less than 4BB. If you call now and lose, you have 510 or 5BBs.

- "Being a better player". Better players do not turn down +$EV plays, especially when they are one of the shortest stacks.

- "Chips you win are more valuable than the ones you lose." Maybe so, but he'll still have 510 if he loses. 510 is definately workable at the 50/100 level. It is these last 510 that are REALLY valuable, and these chips are not at risk. Instead of calling, you advocate folding, and then putting ALL your chips at risk to steal 150 in blinds on another hand. Can't you make this same argument against any blind steal?

- "Need better pot odds". Everyone seems to be saying that they would fold and then try to push and steal. In that case, you are betting 1070 to win 150, and you can be eliminated from the tournament. Are these pot odds better?

I know this is made up for by folding equity. I'm sure that pushing to win 150 is slightly +$EV despite the risk of elimination and bad pot odds. Actually, let's look at the $EV of a blind steal....

Let's say you fold, then its folded to you in the SB on the next hand. You push with a pretty good hand. Let's say the BB folds 90% of the time, and you win 40% of the time when he calls. I think these are both very generous numbers. According to this, the ICM is 0.12.

Calling with KQ at 47% gives an ICM of 0.12.

So 0.12 or 0.12. What's the difference? Pushing is cool. Calling is lame.

You can argue the UTG's range of hands, but you cannot just dismiss this question.

[flytrap]

There is still some postflop play, and you can certaintly use your skills in knowing when to steal, and when to fold, call, etc later in the tourney.

[pooh74]

Fold...At best a coin flip...but could be dominated too...its early yet and why would this guy be pushing with a suspect hand...therefore you will not likely be dominating any of his possible holdings (KJ, QJ) and only the opposite will be true (him having AK, AQ). Then the only options would be that you're looking at an underpair which is a cointoss which with your pot odds makes this about an even call...why do you want that situation right now?

Dont want to pick a situation where you know you're not ahead and 50/50 at best.

[sofere]

I think Phil raises an excellent point. Many people just say "Call? What are you crazy? Never call unless you have Aces." And in most cases I agree with them. I'm not sure about this one, many better players than me have advocated fold, and I am leaning towards agreeing.

But I think the range of hands that we put the villain on is way too small. He has the blinds comin up on him and has the 2nd smallest stack in the BB. I personally would put him on Ax, K8+, suited connectors 78+, any PP, any two broadway. I don't have pokerstove available so I don't know what his win % would be. But I have a feeling its pretty close in terms of $EV either way.

As for AA-QQ I would not discount these hands as a minraise or call with 6xbb would seem pretty suspicious unless he had been doing it consistently.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
- "Being a better player". Better players do not turn down +$EV plays, especially when they are one of the shortest stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it's +$EV. I don't think calling here is.

[pooh74]

i would even go as far to say "better players" DO turn down +EV calls (chip EV)...this is nothing new though and should be obvious.

[pooh74]

"Plenty of time to wait for a better spot". If you wait a 8 more hands, the blinds may have gone up to 100/200. If you don't steal before then, your stack will be blinded down to 770. That's less than 4BB. If you call now and lose, you have 510 or 5BBs.

this is such a misleading statement to prove your point. Using future BBs to show the downside and present BBs to show the upside is just ludicrous.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
this is such a misleading statement to prove your point. Using future BBs to show the downside and present BBs to show the upside is just ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that there isn't that much difference between having 770 at the 100/200 level and having 510 at the 50/100 level. You have more chips with 770, but you have more folding equity with 510.

If you are willing to "wait" and be blinded down, why not just take a shot now?

Clearly, the 770 case is better, but it's not that much better to give up a 47% shot at 1800.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's +$EV. I don't think calling here is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already said that I'd fold if I was only 40% to win.

I've also done that math and shown that it is +$EV at 47%, which I believe is a more accurate number.

Do you fold if it is 47%?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is such a misleading statement to prove your point. Using future BBs to show the downside and present BBs to show the upside is just ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm saying is that there isn't that much difference between having 770 at the 100/200 level and having 510 at the 50/100 level. You have more chips with 770, but you have more folding equity with 510.

If you are willing to "wait" and be blinded down, why not just take a shot now?

Clearly, the 770 case is better, but it's not that much better to give up a 47% shot at 1800.

[/ QUOTE ]

how about folding here and having great fold equity to steal blinds with? The point is not getting into a race with an ok hand but getting chips w/o turning the cards over at all...

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it's +$EV. I don't think calling here is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already said that I'd fold if I was only 40% to win.

I've also done that math and shown that it is +$EV at 47%, which I believe is a more accurate number.

Do you fold if it is 47%?

[/ QUOTE ]

If i feel that there is still an opportunity to "outplay" the table (he more the blinds catch up to your stack obviously this diminishes) then I definitely fold this...if I have low confidence then I perhaps gamble.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it's +$EV. I don't think calling here is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already said that I'd fold if I was only 40% to win.

I've also done that math and shown that it is +$EV at 47%, which I believe is a more accurate number.

Do you fold if it is 47%?

[/ QUOTE ]

47% is too high without a good read.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
how about folding here and having great fold equity to steal blinds with? The point is not getting into a race with an ok hand but getting chips w/o turning the cards over at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

I always write posts that are just too long. By the time anyone gets to my point at the end, the reader has lost interest or consciousness. I completely understand, so let me restate my main point.

Calling with KQ and a 47% chance of winning gives an ICM of 0.12.

Let's say you fold, then its folded to you in the SB on the next hand. You push with a pretty good hand. Let's say the BB folds 90% of the time, and you win 40% of the time when he calls. I think these are both very generous numbers. According to this, the ICM is 0.12.

Your hand is pretty good, nobody tried to steal ahead of you, and there is only 1 player left to act. This is a PERFECT spot to steal. Would you fold because you are a better player? Would you fold and wait for a better spot (ie getting dealt AA)?

Of course not.

So why are you folding your KQ when your ICM is exactly the same as an IDEAL blind steal?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how about folding here and having great fold equity to steal blinds with? The point is not getting into a race with an ok hand but getting chips w/o turning the cards over at all...

[/ QUOTE ]

I always write posts that are just too long. By the time anyone gets to my point at the end, the reader has lost interest or consciousness. I completely understand, so let me restate my main point.

Calling with KQ and a 47% chance of winning gives an ICM of 0.12.

Let's say you fold, then its folded to you in the SB on the next hand. You push with a pretty good hand. Let's say the BB folds 90% of the time, and you win 40% of the time when he calls. I think these are both very generous numbers. According to this, the ICM is 0.12.

Your hand is pretty good, nobody tried to steal ahead of you, and there is only 1 player left to act. This is a PERFECT spot to steal. Would you fold because you are a better player? Would you fold and wait for a better spot (ie getting dealt AA)?

Of course not.

So why are you folding your KQ when your ICM is exactly the same as an IDEAL blind steal?

[/ QUOTE ]

because you dont need to commit your entire stack on that blind steal necessarily. Did you calculate the ICM using a push on the steal or a 3bb raise?

i think the crux of our disagreement comes over not which is the better EV move, but, instead, i prefer spreading my risk where you are advocating making the 47% move right here...over half the stack. Instead, why not make 3 such moves when you still have room and skill will dictate that the more moves u can make, the better play will prevail.

otherwise to answer ur question, there probably is not a whole lot of difference when calculating EV and ICM.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you calculate the ICM using a push on the steal or a 3bb raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the energy for this, and I'm quite certain the result wouldn't be that interesting.

My point is that ANY blind steal is a very small +$EV play. You are only going to win the blinds, so it's not going to have a huge impact on the ICM number.

You can't say "it's only a small $EV increase, so I'll fold and then steal blinds" because a blind steal is just as small and likely smaller.

[ QUOTE ]
Instead, why not make 3 such moves when you still have room

[/ QUOTE ]

As stated above, a blind steal is no better than calling here in terms of $EV. In addition, you are going to be blinded down in the next 8 hands. It is very unlikely that you will see 3 perfect steal opportunities in the next 8 hands.

To do this, you will have to steal with almost any 2 cards and with several people to act behind you. This much worse than my steal example and therefore much worse than calling with KQ.

[ QUOTE ]
skill will dictate that the more moves u can make, the better play will prevail.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skill is vastly overrated at this point. You have the 5th biggest stack. You can try to steal multiple times, but if someone wakes with a hand, you are probably going to lose.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did you calculate the ICM using a push on the steal or a 3bb raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have the energy for this, and I'm quite certain the result wouldn't be that interesting.

My point is that ANY blind steal is a very small +$EV play. You are only going to win the blinds, so it's not going to have a huge impact on the ICM number.

You can't say "it's only a small $EV increase, so I'll fold and then steal blinds" because a blind steal is just as small and likely smaller.

[ QUOTE ]
Instead, why not make 3 such moves when you still have room

[/ QUOTE ]

As stated above, a blind steal is no better than calling here in terms of $EV. In addition, you are going to be blinded down in the next 8 hands. It is very unlikely that you will see 3 perfect steal opportunities in the next 8 hands.

To do this, you will have to steal with almost any 2 cards and with several people to act behind you. This much worse than my steal example and therefore much worse than calling with KQ.

[ QUOTE ]
skill will dictate that the more moves u can make, the better play will prevail.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skill is vastly overrated at this point. You have the 5th biggest stack. You can try to steal multiple times, but if someone wakes with a hand, you are probably going to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

fine, my point (and the others' points) was only that someone may have already "woken" with a hand and you're calling it. Its maybe a toss up $EV but I think saying you will be blinded out in 8 hands by folding this is just another exaggeration...lets just agree to disagree...probably not a lot of room for disagreement anyway...its close.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
fine, my point (and the others' points) was only that someone may have already "woken" with a hand and you're calling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you feel that the short stack wouldn't be stealing with KJ or QT, just say that. We can disagree on that.

However, when others say things like "if you knew your opponent had 22 here, you would be correct to fold", it may be "close", but it is also quite wrong.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fine, my point (and the others' points) was only that someone may have already "woken" with a hand and you're calling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you feel that the short stack wouldn't be stealing with KJ or QT, just say that. We can disagree on that.

However, when others say things like "if you knew your opponent had 22 here, you would be correct to fold", it may be "close", but it is also quite wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok..yeah, that was point i made earlier...that at best YOU are a cointoss and you are not dominating him...only the other way around that he would be dominating you. if for some reason you put him on these hands then of course...but just given the scenario w/o reads this I would fold. I am not sure I wanna call 22 here either...you have pointed out why it could be correct and I respect your reasoning...i think we also disagree on how close to panic mode this game is. I think I have more time left to maneuver, you dont...thats the fulcrum.

[microbet]

My pokerstoving puts you at 47% to win against that range.