Another Bubble Decision

Australia FPP NLHE satellite, 9 seats given away, down to 13 players (from 105). You have T7800 (10th of 13) with blinds at 300/600 ante 50.

In MP of the 7 player table you pick up AKo.
2UTG(T17000) makes it T2400 to go.

Its on you.



Thanks for all answers and comments.

From the bubble /forums/images/icons/wink.gif ,
Packerfn1

I reraised all-in.
EP went into the think tank for a good minute.. and called with JJ.

Flop came J high and IDNGTAN (I do not go to Australia now) /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

My thoughts:
1. I can't blind my way in. I need to win at least one hand to pick up one of the 9 seats.
2. He does not have to call here. Even with QQ or less he can lay down and still be pretty sure of a getting a seat.

Eager to read your thoughts. Thanks again.

Michael

[prd_mnky]

Tough choice. How long have you seen this player play? If he is a solid player, I would fold pre-flop and wait for a premium hand. You don't want to tango with bigger stacks at this point. You have 13x BB, so you aren't in desperate shape here. it's a tough lay down, but I think it's the correct move.

Flop came J high and IDNGTAN (I do not go to Australia now) what is the point of saying IDNGTAN if u say what it means lol

TWTexas /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[ohkanada]

In a normal payout structure it is an easy all-in decision.

In this situation I think it really depends on the other stack sizes. You do have sometime to fold but playing 6 or 7 handed the blinds come up quick.

Ken Poklitar

We need more info.
How many small stacks are there?

He can probably blind his way to the end, so he must have a hand. I doubt he has AQ,AJ or KQ.

With the given info, I fold.

Hard to answer definitively without other stack sizes, still you are so close to the money and 9 pays the same as first--I think it is an easy fold.

I would rather move in dark on the button that re raise an interested player without a pair. The problem with your hand is that anytime he calls you are behind, it is just a question of degree (unless you think he is bad enough to call with AQ, KQ, etc). If he has AA you are dead, and if he has QQ (or JJ) you are still a small dog. I really dont want to get involved here.

[Bozeman]

I said raise because a good player will call only with AA, KK, since he is a virtual lock for a seat, while the 3k+ in the pot would probably put you in a secure position, while right now you are probably out.

If I think he calls with QQ-TT, I muck, unless he also calls with AQ, AJ

Craig

If you think he only calls with AA or KK then AK is perhaps the WORST hand to move all in with. If he folds everything but AA or KK then you could move in with a totally random hand (J-6 for example).

Never underestimate the ability of an opponent to make an bad call under pressure. People rarely make bad laydowns, but often bad calls.

[Shaun]

I used to go all-in in this spot and would win some lose some, as is inevitable. If he has more chips than me, however, nowdays, I fold. I would rather be the one making the initial raise in any hand I was to get involved in so late, unless I have AA or KK. If he raises from the cutoff and I am the button however, I am more likely to and probably go all-in. If he raises from early to middle position, I would rather lay down and choose the path of least resistance. It doesn't matter if I never see a hand as good as AK until the final table, because making the initial raise with a weaker hand is more likely to net me the blinds and insure my survival until the final table. Of course if you win this hand, which you will almost half the time, you are in great position and can relax and play more aggressivley.

So I suppose your play here was an acceptable risk if you are shooting for more than just the final table. If, however, you are sad like me and fold all sorts of good stuff in order to limp into the final table in one of the last 2 chip positions, this was a gross error! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif