PP Million AK bubble hand

[SeriousStudent]

Tournament pays $900 for places 180 to 220 up to $275k for first

225 left, average stack about t15,000

At my table stacks range from t2700 ( me) to t13,000, avg around t10,000. Blinds have around t10000 each. Everyone pretty conservative in bubble mode.

I find myself with AK in MP2. Call, all in, fold?

My thought process was a fold means I almost certainly would make the money, but then at less than 2x the BB only have a 4 or 5 hands to catch something before I must go all so my chances of placing anywhere above the $900 payout is slim. ( $640 buy in)

On the other hand, at least the BB will almost certainly call as he gets 4:1 pot odds. And if I prevail, I am sitting with t6000+ or 4x the BB and have a shot at moving up. But I would have to place 90th to double the payoff to $1800.

I didn't spend any tme thinking about just calling ( but maybe I should have).

What is the right move?

[SeriousStudent]

I reread my post a few times, but now I see that I neglected to mention the all important blind sizes of t750/t1500

Tournament pays $900 for places 180 to 220 up to $275k for first

225 left, average stack about t15,000

At my table stacks range from t2700 ( me) to t13,000, avg around t10,000. Blinds have around t10000 each. Everyone pretty conservative in bubble mode.

I find myself with AK in MP2. Call, all in, fold?

My thought process was a fold means I almost certainly would make the money, but then at less than 2x the BB only have a 4 or 5 hands to catch something before I must go all so my chances of placing anywhere above the $900 payout is slim. ( $640 buy in)

On the other hand, at least the BB will almost certainly call as he gets 4:1 pot odds. And if I prevail, I am sitting with t6000+ or 4x the BB and have a shot at moving up. But I would have to place 90th to double the payoff to $1800.

I didn't spend any tme thinking about just calling ( but maybe I should have).

What is the right move?

[davidross]

I can't believe I'm saying this but you should probably fold. You clearly needed to make a move before this (maybe you just lost a big pot and this is where you find yourself, but you gain $900 by folding in, and need to move up to around 80th to make another 900. My guess is that the EV money play is to fold, but if you want to win you have to play this.

[SeriousStudent]

I lost a big pot about 10 hands before and dropped from t7500 to t2700, and that is how I found myself in this predicament.

I have heard the rule of thumb that says that the percentage of total chips you have is about the percentage chance you have to win it all. Surprisingly, with my t6000 I would have if I won the pot and with 2200 entrants at t1500 each, the EV of 1st place of $275k alone is $508.

How would you calculate the EV of placing 90th for example? Or better yet, is there an easy way to calculate your overall EV for all possible places?

[sdplayerb]

i agree. i think it is a clear fold. i think i fold anything but Aces and Kings, and maybe those should be folded.
Just cash your $900 and be done with it, it is highly unlikely you'll do much better even if your hand holds up.

[SeriousStudent]

At the time I didn't consider just calling. The rationale for just calling might be:

If anyone raised before the flop I would fold and make the money. If I didn't catch the flop and checked, and the BB or other players in the hand bet into me, I would fold and make the money. If I caught a K or A on the flop, I would go all in.

That way I still make the money but with just 1/2 BB left, or even if I win with it checked to the end, I have an extra set of blinds for a chance to move up.

Does that logic make any sense?

[davidross]

i don't know any formula to calculate it, I'm just saying you will have to move up a lot of places to match the $900 jump from 225 to 220, and the difference between trying to move up with 2700 and 6K after teh bubble won't improvve your chances enough to cover the 40% chance of you busting(just a lowball guess) and losing the first $900.

[Rednax]

If you can call, and then fold if necessary, and still make the money, then I think you're right: as insane as it sounds, that's your best strategy in this situation. No downside (you barely make the money either way) and a possible upside that would give you enough to where your steals might be respected and a double up would make you table leader and nearly average.

[sdplayerb]

you'd be knocked out in the bb then. you want to be able to get through your blinds to give you like 8+ hands to blind into the money.
and if you limp, even if you hit an A or K, it does ensure you win.

[nsj]

225 left and you're in MP.... which basically means that if you fold this and your next few hands, you're down to $450 ($2700-1500-750), and can survive an orbit.

Calling and check-folding a blank flop is HORRIBLE. You'd get blinded out. Just stall and auto-fold the next orbit and a half to limp in for $900, or push here, double up, make the money and have at least a marginal stack that, if you can double up a couple of times, allows you to make a run into deeper money.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Unfortunately, your only reasonable course of action here is to try to fold into the money. If the next level is 1,000/2,000 you'll really need about 30,000 at that point to be comfortable about playing your way into the bigger payoffs. That means you have to double through at least 3 times. At this point, just getting some payback for your time is reasonable even though it will feel like the booby prize.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I lost a big pot about 10 hands before and dropped from t7500 to t2700, and that is how I found myself in this predicament.

Sorry, but if you had 7500 instead of 2700, you'd still be basically in the same predicament, just with a bit higher probability of folding into the money.

[DonButtons]

Your options-

Call) If its heads up and checked to you-do a stop and go
Mulitiway pot?-check/fold? So if you fold now will
you make the money?

Push) Never bad to push with ak, unless you have a sure lock on cashing, but like you said, in the long run, just cashing sucks in these tournaments, its the one big hit which pays out in the long term. But what Im wondering is how much a double up here would help you out. Your still will below the avg by 2.5x, so it helps your chances, but barely. And since the next pay out difference is so far away I think the +EV play is to fold, even though a double up here might start a crazy rush to the final table which might prevail in EV.

Fold) Win $900

[b0000000000m]

Just another vote for the laydown.

[SeriousStudent]

See Harrington on "bubble" EV thread, for more on this hand

[RiverDood]

If the math is close -- which most of us think it is -- I think this ultimately comes down to asking yourself: "Why am I playing in this tournament?"

That's going to mean adding some non-economic factors to the mix. If it would be great for self-esteem/vindication to say that you cashed in this major tournament, on any basis, then fold and wiggle into 218th place. Or if your own overall finances are "on the bubble" right now and you really need that $900, then it's wise to fold into the money, too.

If higher finishes in the tournament have a sizable psychic value to you -- beyond the probability-adjusted cash value -- then push and play on. It sounds as if that subliminally led you to push right away, and that's not a bad decision. Heck, even when it didn't work out, you got an interesting bad beat story (four words that hardly ever belong together) and a chance to talk it over with Dan Harrington. That has some value, too.

Of course, if you start playing the state lottery or playing gutshot straights for big raises, then you've let thrill-seeking get totally out of control. In this case, though, the stakes/penalty for taking the riskier road are manageable, and the non-economic gains sound meaningful.