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View Full Version : When to bet money line vs. spread?


hogua
03-05-2005, 11:06 PM
How do you decide to bet the money line rather than the point spread (or vice versa)?

For example, let's say I like a favorite at -6. So, I'm thinking about laying the 6 at -110, but there is also a money line to consider. In this case, it may be something like -260 (just a guess). Taking the money line, means my ROI for the wager, if I win, will be lower than if I lay the points. However, taking the money line offers less risk.

By taking the money line over the spread, I'd basically be buying the six points. So how do I know if the taking the money line would offer a good enough price for buying the points?

tech
03-06-2005, 12:15 AM
[ QUOTE ]
By taking the money line over the spread, I'd basically be buying the six points. So how do I know if the taking the money line would offer a good enough price for buying the points?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to look at historical data for the sport you are talking about. Each number has a certain "price" in each sport. So in your example, you would look to see how often a 6-point favorite wins the game outright. In the NBA, 6-point favs win at about 72% (without adjustments for home/away), meaning the true money line is about -258. Once you have the true ML, you simply see if you are getting a better line from the book. The best spot for this is when you feel that the pointspread is wrong. If it is, then the accompanying ML is probably also wrong.