Mid-limit Commerce Questions

[weevil]

I made my third trip to Commerce on Wednesday. The first two times I got my feet wet at 1/2 and 2/4 LHE, and sat in an incredibly loose aggressive 4/8 game this last time. I turned out a $600 profit in 10 hours of play, but this was despite the loss of more than a handfull of $200+ pots to longshots. The whole time I was there, I didn't run into any decent players (save one , and most were gamb00ling asians or laggy TV wanabees. It's insane how soft these tables are. I'm wondering if this is normal for the Commerce 4/8, and what kind of expected profit someone can make here? I was thinking $15-20/hr to be pretty reasonable, is that too high?

What about the 9/18 game, how soft is that? I've read the archived posts, and it seems like most people agree that it's very laggy. Are there any posters that play that limit regularly, and if so what do they think their average expectation is? How many decent players play regularly? Are they predictable or tricky?

And last, to that filthy Full Tilt shirt wearing, pedophile moustache wearing, Horseshoe Casino Chip toting jackass.. get a clue. If you know a 2outer to the river is 11:1, and still think a sixway capped preflop pot is horrible, you deserve to have lost that $400.

[Michael Davis]

The $9-18 game is nowhere as laggy as everyone says. Often it is quite loose-passive. And frequently you will be in a relatively bad game if you don't use good table selection.

There are a fair number of maniacs and if you like that sort of thing (I do but a lot of people would prefer loose-passives) you can follow them around.

All that being said the quality of play in the $9-18 is generally a joke.

If you can consistently play in a $4-8 game with multiway pots and lots of bets going in $15-20 an hour is quite reasonable. If the game gets passive and you're playing lots of heads up pots the drop will eat away a bunch of your profit.

-Michael

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the 9/18 game, how soft is that? I've read the archived posts, and it seems like most people agree that it's very laggy. Are there any posters that play that limit regularly, and if so what do they think their average expectation is? How many decent players play regularly? Are they predictable or tricky?

[/ QUOTE ]

These Commerce 9/18 games are very soft. Probably some of the best around town. A great advantage also, as you may have seen, is that you will normally have around 5-6 tables from which to choose. A good, solid, creative player can make 2BB+/hour without a doubt. As Michael had already mentioned, it can be loose-passive at times. I play this game regularly and have found the regulars to be poor to mediocre players. Although, in completely honesty, I have seen more students of the game tackling this specific game in the last three months. Undoubtedly, the rumor that this game is a great fishing pond is spreading rapidly, and I would much rather have you go play the 8/16 or 10/20 at the Bike. Good luck.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
I would much rather have you go play the 8/16 or 10/20 at the Bike.

[/ QUOTE ]

Equating Bike 8/16 to Bike 10/20 is bad, bad mojo. Sorry for the hijack.

[BoxTree]

Commerce 9/18. Yah.

You can usually find at least one Wild table (eight or nine-way, capped preflop on 75% of hands) at various times. I hate these games. HEPFAP recommends only playing AA, KK, QQ, and AKs here. I'd rather play a real game than wait for miracle pockets.

Sometimes the tables get quite passive and only somewhat loose. I usually table change every two to three hours at Commerce. If you don't table change when the game starts to change, you'll start to notice how large the rake is.

That said, I do not think it is at all ambitious to strive for 1 BB/hr. at 9/18. 2 BB/hr. is doable but you really need to keep switching tables.

If you're making $15-20/hr. at $4/8, you should be able to make $25-30/hr. at $9/18.

[onegymrat]

Equating Bike 8/16 to Bike 10/20...

Never said that. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[BoxTree]

Hrm...okay. I guess it was just how I read that line.

[OrangeCat]

I was thinking $15-20/hr to be pretty reasonable, is that too high?

Yes, it is high. I’ve played in those games a lot and had some incredible days. However, I think you are very much in error to use your short experience as a basis for $/hr projections.

I don’t like the 8/16 game. It has a lot of rude and disrespectful people who make playing there very unpleasant. Most players fall into three basic groups: the wannabe semi pros (out of work actors, college kids, iPod/sunglasses/BackwardsCap types), the total maniacs and the folks who wander in with some money (suits and BlingBling bangers) who don’t want to play the top section. IMO, there are not nearly enough of the last group to make this game worth sitting in. I dropped it for the 200max NL several months ago. The NL games also suffers from an over overabundance of mega tight college kids but there is more room for the bad players to make big mistakes in NL so that’s why I like it.

The problem with the 6/12 and 9/18 games is you MUST catch cards to win. Who is at your table makes all the difference in the world. It takes a week or so to figure out who is who and, of course, the other regulars know you by then as well. That is where all the requests for a table change come in. Tossing the floor man a few chips once in a while does not hurt.

Good luck.

[fimbulwinter]

If you play NL, The commerce 200 game is about as good as they come for that kind of financial commitment/skill level. the expectation on that game is blinding compared to limit poker.

fim

EDIT:'ed to brag:
My last session, 1 hour before leaving. 8 hours of play total. results not unique. (thumbnail linked to full pic)
http://img16.paintedover.com/uploads/thumbs/16/chips_2.jpg (http://paintedover.com/uploads/show.php?loc=16&f=chips_2.jpg)

[me454555]

Commerce 9/18 = Party 3/6

Very swingy and can go anywhere from laggy to passive. The games are always soft though. I just wish I had the bankroll to sustain it.

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
Commerce 9/18 = Party 3/6

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't agree with this. I have never seen an eight-way pot at Party 3/6. This happens more often than you'd expect at Commerce 9/18.

Commerce 9/18 also can get wild. The same cannot be said of PP 3/6.

All things considered, Commerce 9/18 is noticeably easier than PP 3/6.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
I have never seen an eight-way pot at Party 3/6.

[/ QUOTE ]
Seriously? I haven't played it in a while but I have seen about a million of them. I really have a hard time believing that game has changed and gotten as tight as much as people make it out to be.

[BoxTree]

After applying a filter to my 3/6 PT stats, here's what I get:

No. of hands (out of 32,949) that had 8 or more players see the flop: 32.

7 or more: 213.

6 or more: 1,170.

So, I lied. I have seen an 8-way pot at PP 3/6 less than 0.1% of the time.

[Evan]

Eh, okay. Either I have a bad memory or the game is worse than it used to be.

[BoxTree]

My stats are from September 2004 to early January 2005. I don't think the game was markedly worse at the end of 2004 than it was in early-mid 2004 (I assume that's when you were playing 3/6).

So...I guess less than perfect memory is the culprit. (But I'd rather find that to be true than discover that the games are actually getting tight.)

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
The NL games also suffers from an over overabundance of mega tight college kids but there is more room for the bad players to make big mistakes in NL so that’s why I like it.


[/ QUOTE ]

The LA blind structure does a good job of judiciously punishing my megatight bretheren such that their play is so far from optimal that it may be losing long term.

fim

[me454555]

My assessment is based on small sample size so I could be wrong but that was the general vibe I got from the game. Some bad players, a couple of decent players 1 or 2 good ones. It got pretty laggy at times but I didn't notice too many family pots.

[onegymrat]

I just wish I had the bankroll to sustain it.

You know where to find it...med school = overrated.

[me454555]

Your right, I'm dropping a new car every year I attend. Thank god its only 4 years. I should just quit and start playing the 9/18. Those players have much hygene than most of the pts I see.

[beta1607]

You may also want to check out the 6/12 game at commerce. The few times I have played in that game there would be hands capped 6 ways preflop-turn and then 3 ways on the river. It is probably the best game I have ever played in and from my limited experiance better then the 4/8 game there.