Way ahead or way behind?

[colgin]

I don't have stats on villain but based on a few orbits he seems to be loose-passive (surprise).

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Turn: (5.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.66 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 7.66 BB

Comments appreciated.

[Grease]

Looks like he was going for check/call check/raise on you, and he whiffed. Since he was passive, I'd probably lay this down on the river, since you're probably not good 1 out of 6.66 times (too early to figure out the math). Calling wouldn't be bad, because you could get some info, but nevertheless, money is better than info.

[sthief09]

bet the turn and fold to a raise. the only advantage of checking the turn is you can avoid being bluffed out of the pot. he's loose passive though, so that's nto a concern.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like he was going for check/call check/raise on you, and he whiffed. Since he was passive, I'd probably lay this down on the river, since you're probably not good 1 out of 6.66 times (too early to figure out the math). Calling wouldn't be bad, because you could get some info, but nevertheless, money is better than info.

[/ QUOTE ]


this is really weak tight. he bets the river and you automatically assume he has a K? even a loose passive type could take a stab at it. colgin's play there was weak

[BigEndian]

Nice hand Colgin. Until you look a the hand history and see he's was going to call you with 83os the whole way. Still a nice hand, imo. Sometimes it's easy to you give your opponents more credit than they deserve though.

- Jim

[BigEndian]

I disagree with this. The Ace is a scare card for all players. Very often you will fold a hand you had the whole way and be called by a player fishing for an Ace. Checking the turn through is not bad at all on the whole.

- Jim

[StellarWind]

Let me preface my comments by observing that the read is vague and apparently not very reliable. We don't really know what this player will do. This is a very common theme in online play.

[ QUOTE ]
the only advantage of checking the turn is you can avoid being bluffed out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not true.

1. When you bet the turn and get checkraised by Kx/88/Ax you lose your chance to spike a jack. That is about -0.3 BB when it happens.

2. Given the arrival of the ace it is very possible a 2-out hand like 87 or 44 is going to fold to a turn bet. Checking should allow you to collect a bet on the river (induced bluff or bet your hand) which is more profitable than forcing him out. Even if he would call a turn bet there is no advantage in betting because you need to take the free showdown with an ace on board. It's just as easy to get this bet on the river.

3. How do you intend to handle a turn call followed by a river bet? If you call you will usually lose an extra bet. If you fold you will sometimes lose the entire pot. Either way you lose a lot of EV by allowing this situation to arise.

I think Colgin handled this well.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like he was going for check/call check/raise on you, and he whiffed. Since he was passive, I'd probably lay this down on the river, since you're probably not good 1 out of 6.66 times (too early to figure out the math). Calling wouldn't be bad, because you could get some info, but nevertheless, money is better than info.

[/ QUOTE ]


this is really weak tight. he bets the river and you automatically assume he has a K? even a loose passive type could take a stab at it. colgin's play there was weak

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but doesn't the A on the turn really complicate things? If any other card hits, I think it is an easy call

[Trix]

It may also get you a bet more from a weak pair.

[krishanleong]

Perfect.

Krishan

[Bob T.]

Checking the turn through is not bad at all on the whole.


I agree. Especially if sometimes you bet the turn in similar situations.

[chson]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree with this. The Ace is a scare card for all players. Very often you will fold a hand you had the whole way and be called by a player fishing for an Ace. Checking the turn through is not bad at all on the whole.

- Jim

[/ QUOTE ]

On the whole against LAPs, I think you're going to miss out of a lot of value bets.

[Grease]

Yeah, maybe I am weak tight. If it were me, I would bet the turn and fold to a check raise. On second thought, you really need to call down here. Thanks for correcting me.

[rmarotti]

[ QUOTE ]
Perfect.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

If by "Perfect" you mean "Instead of what colgin did he should've bet the turn and folded to a checkraise" then I agree with you.

[tetonpete]

after rereading this hand, I'm thinking UTG has shown absolutely no aggression of any kind, and that it's possible that he may have picked up a backdoor flush draw on the turn and you gave him a free look at the river. I usually don't like to bet/fold without better reads (and a few orbits is probably not enough), but here only a maniac is going to checkraise bluff you and you are drawing way to slim to call if behind.

[colgin]

I was going to give my thinking on this hand but StellarWind already said what I was basically going to say (except much more articulately, of course):

[ QUOTE ]
1. When you bet the turn and get checkraised by Kx/88/Ax you lose your chance to spike a jack. That is about -0.3 BB when it happens.

2. Given the arrival of the ace it is very possible a 2-out hand like 87 or 44 is going to fold to a turn bet. Checking should allow you to collect a bet on the river (induced bluff or bet your hand) which is more profitable than forcing him out. Even if he would call a turn bet there is no advantage in betting because you need to take the free showdown with an ace on board. It's just as easy to get this bet on the river.

3. How do you intend to handle a turn call followed by a river bet? If you call you will usually lose an extra bet. If you fold you will sometimes lose the entire pot. Either way you lose a lot of EV by allowing this situation to arise.


[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, REULTS: Villain has 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to give my thinking on this hand but StellarWind already said what I was basically going to say (except much more articulately, of course):

[ QUOTE ]

2. Given the arrival of the ace it is very possible a 2-out hand like 87 or 44 is going to fold to a turn bet. Checking should allow you to collect a bet on the river (induced bluff or bet your hand) which is more profitable than forcing him out. Even if he would call a turn bet there is no advantage in betting because you need to take the free showdown with an ace on board. It's just as easy to get this bet on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, RESULTS: Villain has 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that this is Party Poker...meaning that the occasional, idiotic opponent will "value" bet 8x even though someone in Colgin's shoes will almost always have no worse than 99, and is almost certainly calling the river. Consequently, I don't agree that a turn checkthrough will encourage a bluff or a bet from 8x/77/66/55 enough of the time to make it profitable (vs. betting the turn and folding to a c/r).

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I was going to give my thinking on this hand but StellarWind already said what I was basically going to say (except much more articulately, of course):

[ QUOTE ]

2. Given the arrival of the ace it is very possible a 2-out hand like 87 or 44 is going to fold to a turn bet. Checking should allow you to collect a bet on the river (induced bluff or bet your hand) which is more profitable than forcing him out. Even if he would call a turn bet there is no advantage in betting because you need to take the free showdown with an ace on board. It's just as easy to get this bet on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, RESULTS: Villain has 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and MHIG.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess that this is Party Poker...meaning that the occasional, idiotic opponent will "value" bet 8x even though someone in Colgin's shoes will almost always have no worse than 99, and is almost certainly calling the river. Consequently, I don't agree that a turn checkthrough will encourage a bluff or a bet from 8x/77/66/55 enough of the time to make it profitable (vs. betting the turn and folding to a c/r).

[/ QUOTE ]

Chesspain,

I'm having trouble following your reasoning here, and I'm hoping you'll explain.

After Hero checks behind on the turn, StellarWind did recommend betting the river if checked to again then.

If Villain might fold his two-outer on the turn, but Hero can count on either getting bet into or getting called on the river, then I'm not sure I see what Hero gains by betting on the turn.

Do you think Hero will get called on the turn by a worse hand more often than on the river by that hand after the turn gets checked through? Does the risk of a checkraise (by a worse hand) go up on the river?

Wait. I think I may have just figured it out. Are you saying that Hero should bet the turn, because Villain will call and then bet on the river with his worse hand, and Hero can then call that river bet? If so, I guess the question is whether Hero will be best more often than not when he faces a stop-n-go.

StellarWind presented the stop-n-go as something to fear:

[ QUOTE ]
3. How do you intend to handle a turn call followed by a river bet? If you call you will usually lose an extra bet. If you fold you will sometimes lose the entire pot. Either way you lose a lot of EV by allowing this situation to arise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't like facing a stop-n-go on the river, and I like Colgin's line in this hand. But I guess facing a stop-n-go would be good, if Villain will call the turn with a worse hand and then bet the river unimproved.