what's your move?

[curtains]

***** Hand History for Game 1687630335 *****
400/800 TOURNEYTEXASHTGAMETABLE (NL) (TOURNAMENT 10110821) - SAT MAR 05 03:19:29 EST 2005
Table Table 12343 (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: SevynPM (3720)
Seat 3: jsb2003 (2295)
Seat 7: curtainzz (2310)
Seat 8: cannibeezy (1675)
curtainzz posts small blind (200)
cannibeezy posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainzz [ 4h, Kc ]
SevynPM folds.
jsb2003 folds.

[citanul]

hm. maybe this is just me or something, and maybe i should think more about this, but i think i push here nearly 100% of the time. i don't know any of those players though, or the images going around or anything like that. but i don't think it's that close of a decision.

citanul

[Pepsquad]

I fold, but cannot persuasively argue against a push. You're no more desperate than anyone else - a read against BB could push this in either direction.

Pep.

[johnnybeef]

you have a ton of fold equity and very likely are a slight fav. but is 600 worth the possibility of going broke?

edit: i dont think it is...you will be able to find a better spot.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
you have a ton of fold equity and very likely are a slight fav. but is 600 worth the possibility of going broke?

[/ QUOTE ]

explain to me how what you just wrote is any different than the original post's question.

citanul

edit: nice edit!

[johnnybeef]

check out the edit

[curtains]

Wow fast 3 responses. I'll wait for a few more and post results and etc.

[lorinda]

I think you have more fold equity next hand.

Lori

[curtains]

Wow I cant even type a sentence fast enough before its 3 more responses. I'm happy to have captivated the audience with this hand!!

[Pepsquad]

Also, something people RARELY consider, but I have recently found helpful in making these types of decisions, how many more hands do we have at the 400-800 level? There is a HUGE difference between this being the first v. last hand of this blind level.

Pep.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have more fold equity next hand.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

i find this interesting. we should discuss it more.

citanul

[Pepsquad]

Curtains, at this time of night...ANY new post captures the attention of all 12 of us that are still up! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[citanul]

er, 200/400 level, but, yes, that is an underconsidered factor in late game hands in general.

citanul

[lorinda]

Ignore my previous post, I thought both short stacks were going to be the blinds.

Lori

[citanul]

exactly, captive audience + fairly interesting topic = floods of replies.

citanul

[lorinda]

i find this interesting. we should discuss it more.

citanul


I actually misread here, but sometimes I find that folding to a guy who is slightly short stacked will build him up enough to allow me to comfortably steal the next hand.

I didn't however see that the big stack was bb next hand, I thought it was the other 2k guy.

Lori

[curtains]

This blind level was about halfway through....

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Ignore my previous post, I thought both short stacks were going to be the blinds.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

boooooooooo... i thought that there was going to be something really, really cool discussed.

citanul

i'd be willing to talk about why you'd have more folding equity with both short stacks in the blinds instead of just one of them hu with you as well, which is fairly interesting also.

edit: wow, and before i finished my post, you'd started discussing it. nice.

[curtains]

How come there is one response every 2 milliseconds on this thread? We are going to hit 50 pages soon.

[curtains]

Heres a hand history for everyones amusement....the 215s are strong tonight... (my heart was broken that I couldnt play the 99) Incredible read by the A8o and even better read by the 77. I should've known my 99 was out in front!!^%


***** Hand History for Game 1687936243 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:10113004 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Saturday, March 05, 05:09:12 EDT 2005
Table Table 10874 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 9: curtainzz ( $915 )
Seat 10: gary8888 ( $2815 )
Seat 6: SanDiegoGuy ( $445 )
Seat 5: hombregrande ( $630 )
Seat 7: cannibeezy ( $865 )
Seat 4: mdud1 ( $710 )
Seat 8: haachee ( $1220 )
Seat 2: SKULLSC ( $1425 )
Seat 3: STM_7 ( $975 )
Trny:10113004 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainzz [ 9c 9d ]
STM_7 folds.
>You have options at Table 11893 Table!.
mdud1 calls [30].
hombregrande folds.
SanDiegoGuy calls [30].
cannibeezy calls [30].
haachee folds.
curtainzz calls [30].
gary8888 calls [15].
SKULLSC raises [130].
mdud1 is all-In [680]
SanDiegoGuy is all-In [415]
cannibeezy folds.
curtainzz folds.
gary8888 folds.
SKULLSC calls [550].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kh, 3h, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kd ]
SKULLSC shows [ Jd, Ks ] three of a kind, kings.
mdud1 shows [ 8h, Ad ] a pair of kings.
SanDiegoGuy shows [ 7s, 7h ] a full house, Sevens full of kings.
mdud1 finished in ninth place.
SKULLSC wins 530 chips from side pot #1 with three of a kind, kings.
SanDiegoGuy wins 1425 chips from the main pot with a full house, Sevens full of kings.
mdud1 has left the table.

[lorinda]

i'd be willing to talk about why you'd have more folding equity with both short stacks in the blinds instead of just one of them hu with you as well, which is fairly interesting also.

The 1675 guy is sat there looking at 1275 chips and everyone else with 2k +. He's feeling it, he's ready to swear, he's telling his cat that it's yet another bubble. He's about to hit call.

Suddenly the SB moron folds, he has 1875 chips and all is right with the world.

He's not calling next hand, and neither is the guy with slightly more chips than mr. 1800.

Lori

[johnnybeef]

my instinct tells me to fold and after a little bit of thought i can verbalize why. you are 2nd in chips in a fairly even field. right now it is all about jockying for stack sizes and you really are in no need to make a move. if you had a 2:1 chip dissadvantage i would push in a heart beat, but as i see it you are sitting pretty at this current moment in time.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]

How come there is one response every 2 milliseconds on this thread? We are going to hit 50 pages soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

i find that bubble short stack pushing strategy is basically one of the facets of everyone's games that needs working on at some point. i'm lately tuturing a couple of players, and it's aggressive moves that many of them have problems making.

personally, i'd push here with K6o, as well as many weaker hands, though knowing something about the bb would help quite a bit, and knowing a bit about the way the table has been playing has a lot to do with the decision as well.

i think that many players i've come in contact with basically go in cycles with their bubble play, from too tight so they lose to too weak so they lose. of course, this is also something that changes dramatically based on the buyin/skill level of the game...

citanul

[curtains]

I really want to know the answer here. I feel one of my biggest weaknesses in these is that I'm too aggressive around the bubble.

I did push and the BB called with J3s (and of course J3s won, or else this hand would have been long forgotten, as I'm purely results oriented).

[BeerGolfPoker]

I push here. You are favored over a random hand, and have a lot of fold equity. When this steal succeeds, it pretty much puts the short stack in desperation mode.

A push has gotta be +$EV.

Edit: Uhhhhh, I guess you didn't have as much fold equity as I figured. J3s, solid call.

[curtains]

btw yes - I feel like sometimes I'm too tight and sometimes too aggressive, and sometimes I'm unsure of whether I'm being tight/aggressive at the right time...

This push is basically automatic for me, but I'm thinking that maybe it shouldn't be. Why do I look at K4o and see AA? Anyway my instinct tells me it's right to push but I really know I could be wrong here.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do I look at K4o and see AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

because your opponents keep calling with J3o?

citanul

[lorinda]

With the stacks as they are I push, swap UTG and Button around, and I fold.

Lori

[curtains]

No he was suited, otherwise it's a terrible call.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]

I really want to know the answer here. I feel one of my biggest weaknesses in these is that I'm too aggressive around the bubble.

I did push and the BB called with J3s (and of course J3s won, or else this hand would have been long forgotten, as I'm purely results oriented).

[/ QUOTE ]

...and this is just simply what you need to live with if your bubble play is "any two will do". Lorinda was right on as it turns out. SB had finally reached the point that he was hell-bent on calling. This guy would have called with 64 on this particular hand.
Controlled aggression. Why is it that when it comes to bubble time, people seem to forget the "controlled" part?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
btw yes - I feel like sometimes I'm too tight and sometimes too aggressive, and sometimes I'm unsure of whether I'm being tight/aggressive at the right time...

This push is basically automatic for me, but I'm thinking that maybe it shouldn't be. Why do I look at K4o and see AA? Anyway my instinct tells me it's right to push but I really know I could be wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

k4 vs random hand

2,097,572,400 games 4.938 secs 424,781,773 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.3275 % [ 00.50 00.02 ] { Kc4d }
Hand 2: 47.6725 % [ 00.46 00.02 ] { random }


---


your push is +ev when you consider that you have a considerable amount of FE, but i think that this is one of those situations where survival becomes more important tham ev as if you call and lose you are done and out of $400

[citanul]

i like this post. i like it a lot in fact.

now, let's say that you're the big stack, and you've seen the "mr moron sb" fold hand 1. do you ever do the "lockout push"?

i've been thinking more and more about this, and it seems like as big stack, you can make a ton of plays by stealing in spots where another guy was going to steal, and it's obvious he was going to steal. i do it sometimes, but clearly not enough. meh. pretty obvious stuff, but i'm starting to get in the rambly kind of mood, as can be told by me 20 posts in this thread so far.

citanul

edit: but yeah, back to why i like this post so much, it's because it's all about stepping back for a second, letting tempers cool down a sec, and then knifing them in the back when they're not looking. i like that.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
With the stacks as they are I push, swap UTG and Button around, and I fold.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

why?

[Seadood228]

BUT he still has decent FE against the big stacks, and argueably a fold here will boost his FE on the next hand, at least as far as table image goes.

Presuming of course that the player in question is a relative unknown to the others.. oh crap, I think I argued against my own point /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Anyway I agree that you can pick a better spot. If you switched stacks with the BB, then I'd probably push.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
No he was suited, otherwise it's a terrible call.

[/ QUOTE ]

is this humor?

citanul

[curtains]

Just assume anything I say that sounds stupid is humour /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Pepsquad]

I'm just seeing if I'll be the next person to post on this thread or not.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]

Just assume anything I say that sounds stupid is humour /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope - curtains beat me to it.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
your push is +ev when you consider that you have a considerable amount of FE, but i think that this is one of those situations where survival becomes more important tham ev as if you call and lose you are done and out of $400

[/ QUOTE ]

meh. you can't let the 400 bucks get to you. it's a 3rd place. remember, all those times he's called and wins, he now has a servicable stack, and a much better chance at 1st. (ooh, $1k?)

personally, i find that as often as i push with hands like K4o, they call me with hands that *are actually dominated by me* a fair amount. that's part of the beauty of the whole "they get ready to call with any two" thing, sometimes, you push with K4o, and they call with J4o, or whatever, and you're way better off than 55/45. (though it never seems like it on the bubble.)

meh.

citanul

[lorinda]

" humour "
Loc: NY

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Lori

[Seadood228]

But does being too aggressive on the bubble mean a lower ROI???

How many times will Curtains hyperaggressive play on the bubble and end up a) winning a ton of uncontested pots b) getting called by a worse hand and ammassing a very nice stack ITM or c) get caught and suck out against a better hand (my favorite /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

I wish I knew the answer to that one.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]

Just assume anything I say that sounds stupid is humour /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

will do sir.

glad to see you posting more.

citanul

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
" humour "
Loc: NY

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe he's been reading a lot of pratchet lately?

citanul

[citanul]

indeed, that is once again, a nicely done restatement of the original poster's original question.

citanul

[mackthefork]

I'd fold this one, K4o beats a random hand but if villian is a decent player he should call with about 40-50% of hands, plus if the table is tight you can always push any two next hand.

Mack

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
You are favored over a random hand, and have a lot of fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
When this steal succeeds, it pretty much puts the short stack in desperation mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh.. I think these two contradict themselves. I don't think you have that much FE because a steal puts the shortie into desperation mode.

[curtains]

I think I had a lot of fold equity, but ok he woke up with J3s, what can I do.

[Seadood228]

I forgot the question...

[citanul]

what can i say, my response to this thread should have basically been my synopsis of my theory of bubble play, which directs one to play aggressively, because:

people fold too much. except when they don't.

citanul

[citanul]

i know it's way back there, but go back and check it out.

citanul

[Seadood228]

yeah sometimes the deck just runs over some people.

[curtains]

Im a bubbling machine tonight

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]

Im a bubbling machine tonight

[/ QUOTE ]

worthless statement without the hand history proving the lame crap someone called you with to bust you.

citanul

[curtains]

Nah it's not that, just bubbled 3 straight...working on my 4th right now.

[Seadood228]

excellent point.

[curtains]

Ok took care of number 4. That was fun!

[Seadood228]

well good luck to you then. I found that the best way to bubble is to raise all but one chip UTG and fold to a reraise.

seriously hope things turn around soon, but we all know it's not up to us.

[citanul]

sweet. well, since you're having doubts about your bubble play and all, maybe you should consider posting 4 threads for the morning crowd, one with each of your 4 handed play hand histories. i, for one, would love to look at them.

citanul

ps: sweet does not actually mean i think you bubbling is sweet.

[curtains]

They were nothing exciting. Just normal bubbles. One hand I had 1300 on button blinds were 200-400 and I moved allin with 98s and got called by AK. That was about as risky as I got.

[citanul]

boo. like i said, i think that in general, we are at a somewhat lack for good high end bubble analysis.

personally i've been thinking of late of starting a thread just to discuss 25/50 and 50/100 strategy at the 1k chip tournaments. that's the other section of tournaments i think doesn't get covered enough in the general discussion sort of way.

citanul

hope your luck turns around.

[curtains]

I've been on bad streak my last 100-200 S+G's - going to play $100s until I get my groove back.

[citanul]

if you want some real relaxation, try some 55s between 11pm and 2am east coast time.

serious though, post some extended chunks of some "almsot ran" tournaments.

citanul

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold this one, K4o beats a random hand but if villian is a decent player he should call with about 40-50% of hands, plus if the table is tight you can always push any two next hand.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?
What is the "decent" villan's calling range if pushed?

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
i like this post. i like it a lot in fact.

now, let's say that you're the big stack, and you've seen the "mr moron sb" fold hand 1. do you ever do the "lockout push"?

i've been thinking more and more about this, and it seems like as big stack, you can make a ton of plays by stealing in spots where another guy was going to steal, and it's obvious he was going to steal. i do it sometimes, but clearly not enough. meh. pretty obvious stuff, but i'm starting to get in the rambly kind of mood, as can be told by me 20 posts in this thread so far.

citanul

edit: but yeah, back to why i like this post so much, it's because it's all about stepping back for a second, letting tempers cool down a sec, and then knifing them in the back when they're not looking. i like that.


[/ QUOTE ]
Please elaborate on teh "lockout push"? Does this mean steal w/ any 2 as the big stack? alittle help

[citanul]

I was thinking about making a seperate thread on the "lockout" push soon, since I've been thinking about it a ton. I'm not going to claim that this is "all that original" or anything like that, but here goes a quick start before I go to lunch.

Scenario, happens all the time, I'm hoping not to just me:

4 handed, you're the short stack, 2 evenish stacks, and a slightly larger stack to a very large stack. Hey, it even works if there's 2 pairs of stacks, one larger than the other. At some moment, there's often a spot where you've been folding for a while, and you're looking ahead, and you know that your last truly good spot to push is going to be on a certain hand. But there's someone who gets to act before you on that hand, and he decides to push/raise instead!

Often, the case is that there are two decent stacks, neither of whom want to gamble, in the blinds, and you are on the button. The utg player doesn't have to have much of a hand, or even much of a stack, his play just needs to make it so that you cannot push with any two, having to yield to his raise/push.

I'm sure that others know that sinking feeling of "aw, crap" when your great steal shot that you're going to need to maintain fold equity gets ripped away from you, and suddenly you're left with the only options of pushing any two on the next hand, or playing through/on the blinds.

I think that in this situation, the utg player gets a huge "gap boost" from the stack positions, above and beyond other considerations. So utg can push/raise even weaker than he usually would, I think... Mostly the important thing is that the blinds should be unlikely to call, the other two stacks can be a variety of setups.

I guess that the point of the particular play is sort of not detailed, but to spell out my thinking one more step, it's to make the short stack totally screwed NEXT orbit, if he doesn't win his utg hand.

Alright, I'm gonna take off to brunch and a movie, I'll be back later to see 50 "duh"s written following this post.

citanul

[willie]

i don't know how this post is so long....

i push this every single time.

[DonButtons]

I think finding the correct answer here is finding out how tight is the big blind with blind defense?

Obviously if he's loose, this is a -1.4BB hand, and since he called with J3s, he's even looser and will can with more than 64% of his hands.