MisterKing
03-05-2005, 01:35 AM
Most of this hand is 100% straightforward. I don't think the bet I made on the turn is particularly controversial, but I thought I'd see what you expert-types have to say. Clearly, the 9 unseen clubs will make me a winner, add in the 3 other unseen deuces and 7's, and you're at 15 outs. The aces LOOK clean, but I can't be sure about that. Heck, the 6's might be good too. Betting the turn here is a no-brainer, right?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.
Turn: (5 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds, MP2 folds.
River: (7 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.
Final Pot: 8 BB
Assuming the aces are partial outs and the 6's are worthless, you're still around 17 outs, or 37% of the deck. If he folds the turn 20% of the time, the EV of betting is: .20*5BB= +1BB.
Of the 80% of the time I'm called, I win 7BB and probably more (lets say 7.75 as a guess). .37*.80*7.75= +2.23BB, and lose only my 1 turn bet when I miss .63*.80*1= -0.5BB.
So 20% of the time I win 1BB when I bet & he folds, and the other 80% of the time I expect to make 1.73BB for a total EV of 2.73BB.
Check-raising seems dubious, since I'm behind and might not be able to get extra bets on the river from villian if I do make my hand after C/Ring the turn. Check-call gives me the same win% on the river, but no way to win on the turn. I imagine the EV on both of these plays is much lower... so long as he's not raising my turn bet very often, leading out is right, eh?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: (6 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, SB folds, BB calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.
Turn: (5 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds, MP2 folds.
River: (7 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.
Final Pot: 8 BB
Assuming the aces are partial outs and the 6's are worthless, you're still around 17 outs, or 37% of the deck. If he folds the turn 20% of the time, the EV of betting is: .20*5BB= +1BB.
Of the 80% of the time I'm called, I win 7BB and probably more (lets say 7.75 as a guess). .37*.80*7.75= +2.23BB, and lose only my 1 turn bet when I miss .63*.80*1= -0.5BB.
So 20% of the time I win 1BB when I bet & he folds, and the other 80% of the time I expect to make 1.73BB for a total EV of 2.73BB.
Check-raising seems dubious, since I'm behind and might not be able to get extra bets on the river from villian if I do make my hand after C/Ring the turn. Check-call gives me the same win% on the river, but no way to win on the turn. I imagine the EV on both of these plays is much lower... so long as he's not raising my turn bet very often, leading out is right, eh?