Bluffing at micros: worth it?

[Ric]

Obviously, stealraises in certain games are profitable (like Party 1/2), but what about bluffs on other streets? Here's an example:

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

I think the pot was big enough to give it a shot.

[Vern]

No, unless you are the first to bet it. IMHO. He bet the river, unless he is a total LAG he has you beat or is bluffing. He will only call your raise if he has ace high beat.

I think raising the flop, check behind the turn when the three flush hits then call the river is a better line.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer, I am by no means an expert at any of this.

[DavidC]

Yes.

Edit: Except, I call it, "Betting for value with nothing."

[milesdyson]

IMO average players are not folding winning hands enough for this to be profitable. I'd say against a typical player, this pot would have to be about 20 BB to make this an approximately break-even proposition.

[Lucena]

I think to have a chance with this you would need a scare card to work with or to have done this on the flop.

[cmwck]

Yet another example of Fancy Play Syndrome.
There is really no need for this type of play at these limits.
-C.

[Bizot]

i agree if you do raise and are 3 bet and fold people will notice that and bet/raise into you accordingly. Or if you are called with crap people will notice that also.

I am guilty of this alot too trying to out think an idiot makes you one too /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[cyorg]

not unless you are at a super passive table. sometimes if you are last to act it will work out. but you should play pretty standard poker.

[DavidC]

Oh, and I didn't look at the hand, I was just responding to the subject of the post. Sorry for any confusion.

(I will now look at the hand.)

Okay, now that I've looked at the hand, I don't think this bluff was a good one.

There's no way of telling what this guy might have, and there's nothing that would suggest that you just beat that hand that he's representing.

[Ric]

I figured as much. I didn't really plan to bluff raise the end until the river, so a better line should have more success. Typically, I would fold in this situation, having missed my outs.

Anyway, he thought about it for a little bit, and 3bet. I then folded. After this hand, he made some pretty loose calls so in retrospect I definitely picked the wrong person to try a bluff against.

[detruncate]

First thing to consider: people are far less likely to fold for 1 more bet if they've already put money into the pot on that street.

Second thing to consider: average folk think about how much they've "committed to the pot" when making a decision about whether to call.

Third thing to consider: the single most common mistake made by average opponents is calling too much.

Fourth thing to consider: Semi-bluffing is much more a much more useful tool than bluffing, as it gives you two ways to win.

You need to pick your spots carefully. Scare cards, perceived weakness, boards your opponent is unlikely to have hit, opponents who are easily scared or capable of making a big laydown. There are bluffing opportunities, but bluffing too little against generally loose/passive players is a much less serious mistake than bluffing too much.

[OrianasDaad]

Bad play. Very bad play, and here's why:

If you thought (on the flop), that calling down the flop and turn and raising the river was going to win you the pot without any improvement, then you have a play that is more profitable.

First off, you need to have a good hand to call. AK is a good hand by itself against a loose player. You're practically even money on the flop and turn against a random hand (given this board). You are a 2-1 underdog on the river, however. Your true odds aren't this good. Your opponent probably doesn't have a random hand, after all.

Second, the pot isn't big enough for you to call down with with overcards on the flop. I count your outs at an even six. 1.5 discounted aces, 3 kings, and 1.5 for the backdoor flush draw. Mabye even less outs since the board is semi-coordinated. Calling down is -EV, and we all hate that.

Raise the flop. Your slight disadvantage on the flop is somewhat decreased by increasing your opponent's fold equity. If it buys you a free turn, then it's worth it. If it doesn't, then you can fold the turn unimproved. You did pick up a flush redraw that is good heads up. You may be able to raise the turn for value here since it's unlikely he has the flush. This will increase the likelyhood that you'll see the showdown for free, which you definately want to do with unimproved AK against aggression.

Think about how you play different hands on the flop, turn, and river BEFORE you get to the flop, turn or river.

Give up the bluff as a weapon in Micro. Sometimes it works against tight players - but not often enough unless you have an excellent read on them.

Long story short - bluff raises on the river are not going to work often enough to include them in your limit game arsenal. Fold these hands when they don't pan out and save some bets. AK high is an underdog against any 5-card unpaired non-flush board where you didn't make a pair.

One last note. I used to think that "fold equity" was non-existant at micro limits. I have since learned that it can be created in the way you play a hand. Increasing the liklyhood that someone will fold a hand from 25% to 40% (incalculable, I know), is a huge advantage to have. You did nothing in the hand to give you this leverage, though.

[Ric]

I agree with most of your post, but I think that the pot is big enough to see another card on the turn. If I have 6 outs, that's 20+% equity, and getting 7.5:1 that's an easy call, even better with implied odds. It isn't the best idea if I plan to try the bluff (raising would be better), but like I said in my other post I didn't think of it until the river, since I've never tried it before.