Probability for unsuited connectors

[jen]

Can someone tell me what the probability is of flopping an open-ended straight-draw or straight with a mid-level unsuited connector?

Specifically, I'm wondering how many people need to be in a raised pot for a 15-30 game in order for me to come in from the SB (two chips already in) with something like 78o.

Thanks.

[Jimbo]

I believe you play any two cards in the SB in an unraised pot with a 10/15 blind structure. An unsuited connector such as 7/8 is a pretty good random hand preflop. An exception may be to fold heads up to an overly aggressive BB who often raises but even that is a close call.

Jimbo

[drewjustdrew]

I think it depends on your table image and the texture of the game. (I know you wanted a better answer than that). If it is a loose or a tight table I think you can call with fewer people than an average table. At a loose table you will get paid when you make your hand. At a tight table you can win more bluffs. Like I said, these factors are related to your table image as well. Are you a bluffer or an ABC player?(Rhetorical). At an average table, I would call with two callers if I felt the big blind would also call. I don't know if this is right based on any computer simulations, it's just my rule. At 20-40, of course, I would come in less often.

[Jimbo]

drewjustdrew that is a very interesting answer but has little to do with calling the extra $5. If it is folded to you, now you are getting 5 to 1 pot odds on your hand, remember at this time there is $25 in the pot already. If there is one limper you are getting 8 to one odds for your $5 call and it just keeps getting better the more people that limp in front of you. Now if you get 4 limpers and the button raises you still call unless you have a good reason to suspect a three bet behind you because now you are back to your 5 to 1 pot odds on your $20 call with higher implied odds.

If for any reason this does not seem correct to you simply ask youself this question: Against how many random hands is mine worse than a 5 to 1 dog? The answer is very few if any.

Your statement about the 20/40 game is correct because now you have only $10 invested when it is folded to you and must put $10 more into a pot containing only $30.

Jimbo

[Homer]

You are making it sound as if the button's raise is beneficial, helping your implied odds. Is this what you are saying, or am I interpreting wrong?

[drewjustdrew]

Jimbo misread the original post. It is about a raised pot, not an unraised pot.

[Jimbo]

Good Question Homer,

I am not sure it is beneficial as you put it but it doesn't really hurt. If there were 4 limpers already how many more do you expect will call another bet? At least two, often three and sometimes all four which gives you greater implied odds to call in this circumstance than if you knew they would all fold to this raise. Even if you knew this to be a fact it is still worth a call most of the time depending on the raising requirements of the button and how well you play after the flop.

Assuming two of the previous four limpers call and the BB folds, this makes the pot equal $165 (minus the rake) of which you voluntarily added only $20 which now gives you 7 to 1 pot odds on your $20 call. Of course you would prefer the button not raise or if he did for all 5 people behind you to call and not three bet the pot but I simply and looking at a fairly reasonable scenario in a loose 15/30 game.

If on the other hand it is folded to the button and he raises and you know the BB to be agressive just write off your $10 SB and buy a fruit plate with your savings! /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Jimbo

[Jimbo]

Am I an idiot or what????? Please do not answer that. LOL
Gee and I gave an incredibly lucid answer to a question that was never asked!!!

Jimbo