heads up, o-e straight draw, $5-10 HELP

[russ harnew]

last night my father and I were playing $5-10 @ party. After reviewing this hand the next day, we had an [ridiculous] arguement about the best line for this hand and about the math calculations involved. help pls. No reads.

hero (pop) is UTG+2 and it is folded to him, he limps with Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, it is folded to CO who raises, SB and BB fold, and hero calls.
Flop is 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif. pot lays 27$ (5 SB)
hero checks, UTG+2 bets, hero calls.
Turn Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif. (5.5 BB)
hero checks, UTG+2 bets, hero calls.
River 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif. (7.5 BB)
hero checks, UTG+2 bets, hero calls.

The arguement that insues is whether or not the hand should have been folded, and what the proper math behind the scenario is.

My father claims that on the flop the pot was 25$ and his bet was 5$ (even though it was 30, just assume this math was hypothetically correct.) He then claims the pot "lays 25-5 or 5-1." He continues that 5-1 means "you will win 1x for and lose 5x," or "1 time out of 6," or "a 1 and 6 chance." (1/6=17%) He finishes "I have 8 outs: I'll make my hand 32% of the time by the river....16% by the turn, 16% by the river."

I disagree and say even if it was 25/5; 25/5=100/x, x=20, or 20%. therefore he is getting 5-1 pot odds. with 8 outs he'll make his straight 16% of the time, (4.75-1) approximately 5-1, or a "one in four chance." I suggest that since the outs are slightly under (close enough to even) with the pot odds he will not be making enough money long run, and he should fold. My father then says that the math i did is wrong; that a percentage is x/100 not 100/x. So i flip it the 25/5 (5/1) to 5/25 (1/5). He then argues that I cant just flip the number that we're dealing w/ 25/5, and according to his definition of a percentage (x/100) it should be 25/5=x/100 =500% which is utterly wrong, and that I cant just flip it because "I want to." I try to explain it to him but he disagrees vehemently and procedes to get enraged questioning the reason he pays for me to go to college.

Could someone please confirm that my math is correct, or show me the correct math if i am wrong (which I doubt.) Finally, thoughts on flop play (or all streets if there is disagreement.)

I believe it is either fold or raise (hoping to get a free card on the turn.) I cannot fathom that check, call. on the flop ( and all following streets is correct.)

HELP! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Demana]

[ QUOTE ]

The arguement that insues is whether or not the hand should have been folded, and what the proper math behind the scenario is.


[/ QUOTE ]

Fold preflop

[russ harnew]

pf fold is was another thought I had; could someone please confirm that my math is correct, and that i'm not losing my mind *PLS*?

[Demana]

Although a lot of people here can explain the math, you'll get a faster answer in the probability forum.

[Phlatline]

Hello there,

I would fold PF, but since he has limped...

Your father is 4.75 to 1 to hit his OESD.
The pot is laying a little over 5 to 1.
He only needs 4.75 to 1 pot odds to break even.

This suggests that he is correct in calling as long as your father believes the pot will likely continue to lay 4.75 to 1 or better for the subsequent streets.

I'm a newbie here, haha, so pls take this post and the next thousand or so with a grain of salt. LOL. I am ego free, so any corrections/advice are welcomed.

Phlat________

[pyroponic]

Check-raising the turn might be decent as a semi-bluff, although it was appararent that he was not going to fold this hand. You probably had 10 live outs on the turn. Although if he calls the raise and you don't hit you're almost forced to bet into him on the river which could just be leaking chips.