AK Marginal pot-odds situation, Strong Read

[NiceCatch]

This is from a 2-5NL online game, 5max. I don't have the hand history, this is from memory. My read on the villain was that he was pretty TAG (too tight for a 5max game), and had made several laydowns on hands he had raised preflop, and then raised again on the flop. So basically he was bluffable. I had just bluffed a big pot off of him where I knew he had something like KK or QQ, and the board was ATx. After the bluff, I showed my T8o.

So on to the hand in question. I'm on the button with $800, he's in the BB with $400. I have been playing aggressively on the button; the hand mentioned above, I was on the button as well. I have AK. Two limpers in front of me. I raise to $40. SB folds. BB raises to $210. Limpers fold. I think about this for quite a bit. I'm fairly sure he has QQ. I don't read him to be raising with either KK or AA in such a manner; also, he had been standard raising if at all preflop until this hand. I sense that he was slightly on tilt, which gives me some implied odds. Finally, I call.

Pot before the flop is $430. Board comes with three undercards, ten high. No draws that either of us would really worry about. Villain goes in for his remaining $190. I deliberate... then call.

Comments? General comments on marginal situations such as this?

Results in white below.
<font color="white">I hit my Ace on the turn, river was a blank.
Villain had QQ, I take down $810 pot.</font>

[freemoney]

your play is very fishy, you are calling 170 into a 260 pot when you hit your A or K 32% only on the flop, if blanks come you call 190 into a 420 pot with 6 outs AT BEST, to say villian cant have AA or KK is wrong and also on your previous bluff out, how did you know he had KK or QQ, you raised from the button and call his re-raise from BB when you put him squarely on KK and QQ? You cant possibly put an opponent on such a narrow range of hands, its pretty impossible. There is nothing marginal about your play, its real bad.

[radioheadfan]

Let's see. Played miserably preflop. Played miserable on the flop.

At least you're true to your name. Nice catch!

[AZK]

so you're pretty confident he has a pair and you don't but you call anyway (without the odds) in the hopes of catching 1 of your 6 outs? If you wanted all the money in, the better move would have been to just get it all in preflop and see 5 cards with your 58/42 dog hand. Calling with roughly 2:1 on the flop when you are 3:1 is pretty bad.

[NiceCatch]

I've gotten this comment regarding his possibly having AA or KK in both forums.

Please base your judgements and advice on what I have laid out, i.e. he has QQ and I have implied odds on the preflop. Or don't. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[NiceCatch]

[ QUOTE ]
if blanks come you call 190 into a 420 pot with 6 outs AT BEST

[/ QUOTE ]

I had to call $190 for $620 pot on the flop.

[freemoney]

how do you have implied odds hes committing half his stack into a pretty small pot when you only have a 32% of hitting on that flop (dont even count when you hit and still lose) so you are calling 50% of a stack when you have a 32% chance, its not brain surgery.

[NiceCatch]

Let me clarify what I meant by implied odds, maybe I used the term incorrectly. I was fairly sure he wasn't going to let me bluff him out of a pot on the flop. So if the board paired my A or K, he would have still gone to the felt.

BTW, I'll give you my take how I played the hand after I get some more comments. You might be surprised.

[Huskiez]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me clarify what I meant by implied odds, maybe I used the term incorrectly. I was fairly sure he wasn't going to let me bluff him out of a pot on the flop. So if the board paired my A or K, he would have still gone to the felt.

[/ QUOTE ]

The whole problem I have with this hand is that I find it hard to put him on exactly QQ by his play. You say you're fairly sure, but fairly sure doesn't cut it.

If you know he has QQ, then the play is fine.

You can't commit your stack preflop with AKo (I'd assume you would mention if you had AKs) v QQ, because you're getting 450:360, or a 56:44 on a 57:43 dog. Barely -EV. So don't push preflop.

However, you can more than make up for this by calling preflop. Since you say he will commit on any flop, you should then fold any flop containing a Q except QJT. Call almost any other flop (except for something like JT9).

A moderate amount of QQ's equity vs. AK is from flopping a Q. By not investing your entire stack in those situations, you can make this a +EV situation.

To repeat, if you know he has QQ, and you know he will commit on any flop, then the play is fine. Otherwise, I don't think it's good at all.

Just to note, I don't think the original responders were wrong in saying your play was bad, given that in your original post you said you were fairly sure (and not certain) he had QQ.

[freemoney]

alright if you want to justify getting all your money in as an underdo at every spot be my guest. your play was very bad, you arent gonna fold when flop comes a-q-4, its just a really bad play.

[NiceCatch]

I'm not trying to justify my play. I'm looking for technical explanations as to whether it is correct or not, and to what degree. Reads on the other player are simply part of forming a line of play, and can't really be discounted in short-hand.

[NiceCatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to note, I don't think the original responders were wrong in saying your play was bad, given that in your original post you said you were fairly sure (and not certain) he had QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the analysis. I thought about how sure I was that he had QQ, and the best way I can put it is: after his preflop raise to $210, I would have been willing to wager $400 at 1:1 that he had QQ. (Or more precisely $360 for the pot and the rest of his stack.)

[NiceCatch]

Alright, here's my take on the hand.

I rarely make marginal plays with AK. I never call a half-stack bet with AK, in position or not, if the bettor is not a maniac. I was playing decent poker, but it was very late, and I was tired. I felt I had badly misplayed the hand, especially on the pre-flop. I decided that I was not making good decisions. I quit after that hand.

Then I thought about the hand this morning. I thought about each phase of the hand, preflop and flop, and realized that, given my reads, each play was marginal.

Like I said before, I avoid such marginal situations; I prefer great pot-odds or great implied odds. I don't think you could say either was "great" in this situation.

The reason I posted is because I wanted to find out how other high-stakes cash game players approach such marginal situations. Do they also avoid them? I.e. supposing you have correct pot-odds or implied odds to play a hand, how big an edge do you need to play it?

[nokona13]

1) Why are you calling off 25% of your stack with 1.5:1 pot odds (~2.6:1 if you assume you'll still get all his chips if a A or K falls) when it's worse than 2:1 against hitting on the flop?

2) Why are you calling with ~3.1:1 pot odds when it's ~3.1:1 against you hitting? You win money by pushing edges. Go play craps...

3) Why are you making such marginal plays when there's of course a chance that villain has KK or AA, thus making all of the calculations above look even less favorable?

[NiceCatch]

I'm not going to defend my play, because I'm not convinced it's correct. Regarding your other comments:

Do most people fold on the flop here, needing to call $190 into $620 with AK, assuming the opponent has QQ?

The reason I was sure he had QQ is because I had set him up earlier by showing my bluff with the ace on the board. He raised big preflop in order to not allow me to bluff him out of the pot on flop, in case an Ace or King fell. He basically made it so that he didn't have a decision on the flop; obviously he partly raised for value with QQ, probably anticipating a fold. With AA you don't have to worry about getting bluffed out of the pot on the flop. KK you only have to worry about the A. That was my read, and I'm sticking to it. I make these reads based on experience, I rely on them, and usually they help me out.

BTW, I really don't think you can play shorthanded high-stakes poker very profitably without making these types of deductions. As I said, this player was not tricky, which is why I had alot of confidence in my read.

That being said, I'm not trying to justify my play. I was confident in my reads, but (at least initially) felt I badly misplayed the hand.

[freemoney]

I mean getting in as a dog for all of your chips is that technical enough?

[NiceCatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean getting in as a dog for all of your chips is that technical enough?

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to read my posts more carefully. This was not for all of my chips.

[freemoney]

all of his chips, its irrelevant really.

[NiceCatch]

So you're saying you never take pot-odds into consideration when all of your chips or someone else's chips are at risk, and you're an underdog? You just autofold? That doesn't sound +EV to me.

[freemoney]

you dont have pot odds thats the whole point.

[NiceCatch]

Actually I did, given my read; read Huskiez' post.

Anyways Freemoney, you're missing the point. This thread was not about judging my play on the hand. It's about how much of an edge a good cash-game player needs in marginal situations.

[freemoney]

weell I mean if you have an unlimited bankroll and no capped buy in any advantage no matter how marginal the situation should be taken

[NiceCatch]

Hmmm... ok. I buy that. Now assuming a realistic scenario, can one tie the edge to one's bankroll? A poster on the SSNL forum said it all depends on how risk-averse on is... My line of thinking is, if you play consistently, why wouldn't you take advantage of marginal situations? Is it because variance may eventually bust you?