AQ - middle pair on flop

[joop]

Not sure how to play middle pair in this situation.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[shadow29]

Looks good.

[joop]

Thanks.

[memphis57]

Any reads? I'll assume average opponent.

In .50/1, I would always bet the flop here. He called your pre-flop raise but didn't reraise, you have the lead, he doesn't know if you have AK or AQ or KQ or even A/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/heart.gif if you usually raise them all. If you always bet out even when you miss a flop, he still doesn't know, which I think is to your advantage, which is one reason I always bet out miss or hit. But that's another topic - the topic here is when you hit the middle pair.

So anyhow, I'd always bet out, if he has better he can raise if he wants. Okay, so here he does raise, so next street we check and he bets - now what?

Well, in absence of reads and assuming an average (decent - I never assume fish) .50/1 player (which may be different for you in 1/2), I'd say that means he probably has Kx or 88 or maybe Q8 and is betting for value, or Qx or maybe 99 and is testing us to see if he can bet us ot of a pot. First scenario you're down, second you're up. Now you have to estimate odds - call it 70% first, 30% second scenario (this estimate is very important to the decision and is purely a read/experience call - my estimate will vary greatly between hands based on reads, but 70/30 is where I might start with no read based on my past experience). Now do pot odds - you can hold it to 9.50 final pot and it'll cost you 2.00 to see. If you're beat now, it's most likely with Ks but could be a set, so 3 As = 2.5 outs and 2 Qs = 2 outs, call it 4.5 outs with 46 unseen cards or 10%.

So 10% of the 70% you're behind adds 7% to the 30% you're ahead, so you'll win 37%, round that down to 33.3% for the times he improves on the draw, so you need 2:1 pot odds to call down. You have 7.5:2 or 3.75:1, well above the minimum, so I'd call down here.

Note: you can't do all this math in your head between 3rd and 4th street, you have to do it in advance for a variety of situations and get a feel for it. Also note, if the strength/bluff estimate I made above is 90/10 instead of 70/30, you don't have call down odds. Because of the high frequency of people trying to buy pots (or just aimlessly calling/raising) that goes on in .50/1 I recognized this situation as one I'd almost always call down when I read your post. I didn't know the exact numbers, 3.75 versus 2:1, but I knew it would be solidly favorable because of all the other similar situations I had claculated out after the hand was over.

[joop]

Hey memphis, thanks for taking the time to write such an in depth response, much appreciated. I guess this draws my attention to the thought processes I should be going through when making these decisions (not at the table, but "pre-memorised")... which I'm not currently doing. I think I'll re-read SSH this weekend! Cheers.