J2s against sup bro

[SomethingClever]

Party 1/2 6-max.

Hero is BB with J2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

sup bro (probable 2+2 TAG who I have hundreds of hands with) raises UTG, 3 people cold call, so I defend.

Flop: J 7 5 with two /images/graemlins/heart.gif's

I bet, sup bro raises, fold, fold, Button calls two, I call.

Turn: offsuit 3.

I check, sup bro bets, Button calls, I call (thin?)

River: 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check, sup bro bets, Button calls, I raise....

Terrible river raise? Should I have folded the turn?

[Transference]

With as many hands ive put in and with as few as I've posted I feel like I should start attempting some responses to more 1/2 posts, so here it goes. Usual disclaimer, i probably suck.

Trouts most likely range would be 2 overcard hearts, an over pair (QQ-AA) or a better jack.
AK and AQ might be a possiblity dending on the player.

Button we would think would be chasing a flush or straight or hanging on with another jack, given the river, its seems like jack is most likely. If he calls any to sooted there preflop 75 isnt out of the question.

On the turn your looking at 6 outs, 2 of which stink in 2 likely scenarios, counting them as 1 might be generous. It looks like were getting ~7:1 here, clearly if you knew you were beat at this point you would muck it. It seems to me that there is a good chance you are way behind and a good chance that if your not many cards will put you behind on the river. I don't make this turn call.

On the river your ahead of 2 likely scenarios - trout has overpair button has a jack. Being that you are also ahead of AJ, KJ and the odd 75 I think you have the best hand more than 50% of the time no problem, looks like an easy value raise to me, are you folding to a 3 bet?

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like were getting ~7:1 here

[/ QUOTE ]

On the turn, I think there were more like 10 BB in the pot. Do you still fold?

[SomethingClever]

Here's the actual hand history... my memory was off by a bit.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG (sup bro) raises</font>, MP calls, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">sup bro raises</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">sup bro bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">sup bro bets</font>, MP folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, sup bro calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 18.25 BB

[Transference]

Oops, ok, thats a significant difference. Getting 10 to 1 I think a call is definately in order. I think being first to act is actually an advantage here as well. If you don't improve you can see a showdown for one extra bet (im folding if its bet and raised after I check) and you can c/r when you improve and its not raised in front of you (as you did).

I think the problem with this situation is that you are often spending 2bb for a showdown when you are behind. That is even when you don't improve you will almost always be spending another bet on the river. More rarely, you will occasionaly spend 3bb and loose this pot. I think implied odds will balance this out however.

All in all I think the turn call is correct but close, I also think this is a very high variance play all the way through. That in itself isnt significant but it does mean that making the wrong decision can be more coslty.

Id be interested in other thoughts on this one anyway.

[wjmooner]

Given the size of the pot the flop and turn look fine. The cutoff play confuses me, but then they all confuse me when the call the whole way. Tough to put him on a hand.

I would assume the TAG had AA-QQ or a Jack with a better kicker. I like the river raise once the other guy just calls on the river, although I've been cold-called three times in the last two days by guys who hit their flush on the river heads-up. Now that's passive.

WJ