Best Baseball Prop Bets

[Cornell Fiji]

Im a sports betting noob but saw the following prop bets online and think that they were all pretty good. I read a comment in an earlier thread about how it is not worth it to bet baseball props because you are tying up +EV money for a long time but that aside what do you guys think of these odds?


2005 MLB Season - Most Home Runs by Any Player
04/15/05 103 Most Home Runs OFF OFF Over 46.5 (-130)
12:00 ET 150 Games for Action OFF OFF Under 46.5 (Even)


MY BET - OVER


2005 MLB Season - Most Losses by Any Pitcher
04/15/05 127 Most Losses OFF OFF Over 18.5 (-115)
12:00 ET 150 Games for Action OFF OFF Under 18.5 (-115)

MY BET -- UNDER (19 losses is rare, I think this is a really good one)


Barry Bonds - Total Home Runs in 2005 Regular Season
04/15/05 230 Home Runs OFF OFF Over 38.5 (-115)
12:00 ET Must Play 1 Game OFF OFF Under 38.5 (-115)


MY BET - OVER (this all depends on the roid effect but I'm betting on bonds)


Johan Santana - Total Wins in 2005 Regular Season
04/15/05 403 Wins OFF OFF Over 18.5 (-115)
12:00 ET Must Play 1 Game OFF OFF Under 18.5 (-115)


MY BET -- UNDER (although I wouldnt bet the mortgage on this one)




Dontrelle Willis - Total Wins in 2005 Regular Season
04/15/05 427 Wins OFF OFF Over 11.5 (-130)
12:00 ET Must Play 1 Game OFF OFF Under 11.5 (Even)



MY BET -- OVER (although I wouldnt bet the mortgage on this one)





Armando Benitez - Total Saves in 2005 Regular Season
04/15/05 506 Saves OFF OFF Over 37.5 (-115)
12:00 ET Must Play 1 Game OFF OFF Under 37.5 (-115)



MY BET -- OVER (although I wouldnt bet the mortgage on this one)



Thoughts?

-Steve

[TheRover]

First of all, I'm stupid and should be probably be ignored, but, anyway...

[ QUOTE ]



2005 MLB Season - Most Home Runs by Any Player
04/15/05 103 Most Home Runs OFF OFF Over 46.5 (-130)
12:00 ET 150 Games for Action OFF OFF Under 46.5 (Even)


MY BET - OVER

[/ QUOTE ]

There's been at least 1 person over 46.5 the last 10 years so this seems like a solid bet.

[ QUOTE ]

2005 MLB Season - Most Losses by Any Pitcher
04/15/05 127 Most Losses OFF OFF Over 18.5 (-115)
12:00 ET 150 Games for Action OFF OFF Under 18.5 (-115)

MY BET -- UNDER (19 losses is rare, I think this is a really good one)


[/ QUOTE ]

19+ has happened 4 of last 5 years. But only 4 of last 10.
No clue here.

I really wouldn't be comfortable betting the over on any one player's stats for a full season due to injury concerns unless it seemed as if it was a lock if they just stayed healthy.

Remember: I suck.

I don't bet any prop bets like that unless I am getting odds. Ever.

[MicroBob]

I'm not touching any of these prop-bets...but if I were I would be with you on every single one of these (although I'm probably 50/50 on Benitez).

[RogerM]

Dont like any bet where i am laying more then -110. BLUUGGHHH

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont like any bet where i am laying more then -110. BLUUGGHHH

[/ QUOTE ]

You will miss lots of opportunities if you never lay more than -110. I bet a couple of props at -500 and -1000 a few weeks ago. I had a bigger edge on those bets than any others I have made in the last 6 months.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont like any bet where i am laying more then -110. BLUUGGHHH

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this attitude at all.

[Paluka]

I don't think any of these bets is particularly good. I think the Bonds bet is bad.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Dont like any bet where i am laying more then -110. BLUUGGHHH

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this attitude at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I look at these prop bets as more of a lark than "real" bets, and I think many people view them that way, including the op. Of course, if you know enough about the subject matter of the prop you may legitimately feel that you have a +EV even if you are laying 500 or 1000, as tech mentioned above. I am assuming that the op is not in that position, which explains my response.

I also am not a fan of tying my money up for the season unless I'm getting paid off to do it.