AQ faces a stop-and-go

[coinflip]

Villain in this hand is 54/0/0.6 over 40 hands or so.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, CO calls.

I raise the flop thinking that (a) I might have the best hand and (b) even if I don't, I'm likely to get a free card.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

So much for the free card. Did villain hit two pair here, or did he slowplay his trips, or what? A slowplay would likely check-raise me so I'm not sure exactly how to read this...

River: (7.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Heck, I've called this far already, let's see what he has...

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

[Milky]

I dunno, I'm throwing a raise in there at some point. Either on the turn or river. The only reason I'd wait til the river is to let him keep betting his pocket pair or his 5. I don't see him betting this flop after you raised PF if he has a 7.

That being said, I don't think its that bad just calling down the Stop-n-Go against this passive opponent (though 40 hands is a pretty small sample size).

[gman420]

Continuing with just overcards in a 9 handed game always seems like a dubious play to me. I have 6 outs if someone has a pair (which makes me a thee to one underdog assuming I see both the turn the and river) and if no one has anything i'm not likely to get much action anyway. In this situation, a passive caller preflop bet out post flop, indicating he hit something. In small stakes, players' bets usually mean what they represent. In this case, I would probably fold my two overcards (unless you knew something more about your opponent, such as that he might make that bet with just overcards. In that case he might have made an ace on the turn that you can beat, and continuing is a good move).

-Greg

[Milky]

Hero is getting 8-1 when it's a bet to him on the flop and the opponent is saying he probably doesn't have the 7 (otherwise he'd probably either C/R now or C/C then C/R the turn). I like a raise for a free card.

[gman420]

You're right, the odds are pretty good. You are about 7:1 to make a pair on the turn, but are getting 8:1 if you call. Although, this assumes that your pair will be good. A passive player could bet out three 7's, then after a raise simply call because he has a poor kicker. Depending on your opponent, you may need to factor in some reverse implied odds (you make your hand but lose). Without knowing more about the opponent it is hard to say, and probably a call is marginal. The raise to get a free card is not likely to work because your opponent called your raise preflop, and then showed agression instead of checking to the raiser. The raise cut your odds in half, so unless knocking out the small blind made you a better favorite to win, a call (or a fold) is probably the better play.

-Greg

[Milky]

I like your analysis but I think the odds of being reverse-dominated are pretty small. Also, against a passive opponent I'm always raising here because I'm extremely likely to get a free card, EVEN IF HE HAS TRIPS. Against a tricky or aggro opponent I'd just call.

[gman420]

I def see your point. If trips are unlikely, then a call or a raise (assuming you get the free card) both give you correct odds, and you might as well pad the pot. The play really comes down to how likely your opponent is to call a raise preflop holding a 7, and what type of hands he would bet out after this raise. It just seems unlikely that he would bet out if he hit 5's, although a middle pocket pair is certainly a possibility.

-Greg

[Redeye]

I definately play the flop the same way, the odds are that you are probably good here so you might be able to get SB to fold and protect your hand.

CO seems pretty LP but its a small sample size so I'm not sure what I would do. I might throw in a raise on the river but I think I have to be able to fold to a 3-bet here. There is a good chance CO was trying to take a stab at the pot with ace high on the flop.

[gman420]

After looking back over all the posting I think this hand is a lot more complex than I initially thought, mainly because your opponents moves seem confusing when analyzed from the POV of a tactical player. This is a situation where knowing something more about your opponent would be extrememly helpful. The fact that he called your raise on the flop could mean he was taking a stab at the pot with just ace high, but it could be a slowplay for trip sevens. Betting out when the ace hits might be a deceptive play to make you think he has just aces.

A lot of times in small stakes hold em I find myself making mistakes because I give my opponents too much credit. Often a bet just means "i have something." Players in small stakes call preflop with hands like K7, A7, A5, etc all the time. My inclination is that in small stakes I start with the assumption that my opponent is fairly predictable, and modify from there. This is clearly not always going to be correct, and in this situation with only three players it might be completely wrong, but this principle seems to be what was guiding my thinking.

-Greg

[ZootMurph]

In 40 hands or so, this fella has played over half the hands he's been dealt. He's either getting great cards, or is playing any Ace, etc. etc. Now, maybe he has A5, and he bet out when he hit his 5. Maybe he has A7 or some 7. Even after only 40 hands, playing over 50% of those hands gives me the read of someone who isn't sophisticated enough to be running a stop and go. Therefore, I put him on a smaller ace and raise the turn. If he three bets, I call down. If he calls and bets into me again on the river, I probably just call.

[gman420]

I didn't even see that part of the post (villian playing so many hands). Your play makes a lot of sense.

[jt1]

with that flop, i'd raise for value.
he wants to play again on the turn...hmmm...i'd call the turn and pop the river and call a 3 bet.. no wait I'd pop the turn and fold to a re-raise... I think you can play either way.

[Milky]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain in this hand is 54/0/0.6 over 40 hands or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

This says he plays a lot of hands /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[SparkyDog]

Raise the river, he may be running a bluff on the ace and any aggression from you on the turn might make him slow down.

[gman420]

Yeah I just noticed that, and it pretty much negates my whole argument. Oh well... I should read more carefully next time.

[lu_hawk]

raise the turn. if he 3-bets then fold. but he is 54% VPIP so he is never folding to a turn raise and will always call a river bet if he has a pair.

[somapopper]

Hi, virgin post here.

I think you should raise the turn here and call down if reraised.

I don't think he could have a seven. If he called your flop raise because he was scared of trips with a better kicker, he couldn't have made 7s full of aces on the turn. The ace certainly didn't improve his kicker any either, so the bet doesn't make any sense if he had trips and was playing them in a straight forward manner.

So then, if he has trip 7s, he must think they're good. Not reraising you on the flop is an effort to give you a card to catch up. If that's his intent the ace is the most likely card to improve your hand and anybody capable of calling a raise on the flop with the hope of milking an extra bet on the turn is going to go ahead and do it, right?

The only possibilities are that he's all out bluffing (no risk for you there) or the ace helps him. Since we know he doesn't have a7, and I think it's pretty safe to assume aa is right out since he didn't make it three bets preflop, ak is the only hand that beats you (another unlikely holding, but certainly possible for a passive player not to 3 bet).

I know this doesn't fit with the player's high VPI, but we do know he's probably not some mad genius of poker, and this is the only logical explination I can come up with.

[Redeye]

[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn. if he 3-bets then fold. but he is 54% VPIP so he is never folding to a turn raise and will always call a river bet if he has a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the thing, having a 54% vpip has nothing to do with a player calling down to the river. There are players that are loose who will call preflop with anything but play relatively decent postflop. If he has an unusually high went to showdown %, then I agree with you that a turn raise isn't bad. Given an unknown, I don't want to take the chance of him folding a smaller pp or a worse hand or a pure bluff for that matter. I think the best line is to raise the river and probably fold to a 3-bet.

[lu_hawk]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing, having a 54% vpip has nothing to do with a player calling down to the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

you can't be serious.