ATs How's this line?

[bunky9590]

Party 5-10 (6 max) No HH or converter handy. Thoughts on Preflop, flop, turn, river. Though the river is a no freaking brainer.

BB in this hand is on a rush, playing every hand, loose passive as all get out, has just spiked J4 for trips on the river to beat my overpar of TT and chareged me for it. Also recently busted my KK with J9o when she flopped trips. Anywho, shes, loose, shes passive and calls calls calls.

MP is pretty weak tight actually, folds a lot on the flop, wont call w/o less than a med pair or real strong draw, is capable of checkraising. Though is slightly on the loose side PF, very passive PF has a touch of aggression post flop especially on the turn.

Bunky is in the CO with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG folds, MP open limps, Bunky raises, button folds, S folds, BB calls.

Flop (6.5 SB) J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Checked to Bunky, Bunky bets, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn (5 BB) 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Checked to Bunky , Bunky checks it right back at them.

River T /images/graemlins/spade.gif
BB bets, MP calls, Bunky raises, BB calls, MP folds.


Turn check? Meh. James will probably rip me for cecking, Mike l. and clarky might actually like it.

[wuarhg]

I would bet the turn, even if you get raised you have odds to call and have a look at the river. And I do not want to give a gutshot or oesd a free look at the river.

[Jeff W]

Pre flop: Easy.

Flop: Easy

Turn: I bet. Your hand is very likely best and you have a strong draw otherwise. Your opponents will call with draws on the turn(especially BB) that they will probably not bluff on the river in a multiway pot.

River: Easy.

[stigmata]

I don't understand the turn check.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the turn check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought process at the time. MP is way capable of making a checkraise with a Decent Jack. He would get an extra bet from me and BB if he did it. I had my usual image of hammer down. When I picked up the nut flush draw to go with middle pair, I decided to check when I picked up more outs rather that risk the checkraise. I had to fold to a couple checkraises in earlier orbits, so it was a bit more likely for MP to take a shot at me.

[Trix]

I think you have the best hand too often to check this turn and when you pick up the flushdraw, beeing check-raised wont hurt that much as you are 2.3:1 to improve to 2 pair or better.
Without the flushdraw I think you should be more likely to check, but probably still bet as your hand is best pretty often and both a passive, so you wont regain that bet they save on the turn on the river very often.

[stigmata]

OK thanks

However, I would normally be more inclined to bet again in these situations if I have lots of outs. Although the opposite actually seems more logical - e.g. taking a free card when you fear a check-raise + you have lots of outs.

This situation though, sounds like MP check raised your ass once too many times and you were seeing monsters!

[krishanleong]

I like this play with 5-7 outs rather than 10+. I think you have enough equity that a CR isn't a big deal. If all you have is 1 overcard and a gutshot, a CR is terrible.

Krishan

[ISF]

I think this turn check is really pretty bad. Your hand is pretty vunerable, but also has a ton of pot equity. I dont want to give free cards here, and a CR from the MP that traps you and the BB with say a QJ is not really that bad for you. As you probibly have close about 30 pot equity against say a QJ KJ and some sort of straight draw lower pair. So even if you knew MP would CR you and have a jack it would only be slightly -EV to bet here.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
This situation though, sounds like MP check raised your ass once too many times and you were seeing monsters!

[/ QUOTE ]

Not just MP, I'm like a checkraise magnet, especially on the turn. The pots Im in I hammer so often that I get checkraised quite a bit, by a lot of different types. As far as seeing monsters, nah. I pretty much take every hand at face value but i do keep in mind of my image at the table as compared to the other players. If Ive had to lay down some razor thin value bets to checkraises on the turn I will be less likely to fire that barrel (as much)as they have seen I can lay it down. However that crap usually stops when I pull a play like this or three bet their checkraises. Usually after I start doing that thought they usually find greener more passive pastures rather than get into a psych war with a TAG. Seems like once I have them made and start playing back at them, they leave.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
So even if you knew MP would CR you and have a jack it would only be slightly -EV to bet here

[/ QUOTE ]

Just my feeling at the time. I felt it likely that one of the two had some variety of Jack. Whether it was MP or BB was beyond me, But MP would have raised KQ coming in, he probably would not have limped 89 even suited. That leaves him with some Jack or T for him to be calling with. All of the high forms of a gutshot draw would have been raised coming in as well. I narrowed him down to a Jack or a Ten, Since I had a T , it was more likely he had a Jack. BB, who the heck knew at that point. But the thing I wonder with you're quote above is.....

[ QUOTE ]
I think this turn check is really pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
So even if you knew MP would CR you and have a jack it would only be slightly -EV to bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty much a direct contradiction, though I kinda see what you are getting at. Though obviuosly nobody is ever folding a Jack there. Ever.

[stigmata]

I know the feeling.

I definately been suffering check-raise-itis recently. Some sessions it feels like every hand I play someone is check raising me. Its certainly soured my sessions at some tables, where it has encouraged the LAGs to make plays at me etc.

I'm still feeling my way through countering it.....

[bunky9590]

Hey Trix, I just copied my post to ISF. This pretty much explained my feelings on why I checked. Not like Im seeing monsters under the bed. I felt the odds were more likely that one of them had a Jack. If they have a Jack, I'm still behind but have a great chance to improve, also if I check the turn and improve most Jacks will bet the river allowing me to pound them for another bet anyway. I lose less when I don't improve and win about the same if I do improve. The Jack is likely to check call the river anyway if in fact the BB has Jack. I dunno , I felt this one was close so I decided to post it.

[ QUOTE ]
Just my feeling at the time. I felt it likely that one of the two had some variety of Jack. Whether it was MP or BB was beyond me, But MP would have raised KQ coming in, he probably would not have limped 89 even suited. That leaves him with some Jack or T for him to be calling with. All of the high forms of a gutshot draw would have been raised coming in as well. I narrowed him down to a Jack or a Ten, Since I had a T , it was more likely he had a Jack. BB, who the heck knew at that point.

[/ QUOTE ]

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I know the feeling.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, with my bet bet bet style I get checkraised more than almost everyone I know. That has its advantages, cause I three bet more than the average cat as well.

The turn checkraise is a deadly weapon to be sure. The way Ive been combating it is three bet the stronger hands and let them know you cant be pushed around, Check the turn back on certain boards (this is really player and read dependant though) if they start to check raise you a little too often, call down. You're more suseptible to the semibluff so sometimes if I get a turn checkraise freak, I'll call down a little lighter and wind up winning. They soon tend to stop semibluffing or bluffing on the turn when you "let them know" that you're not folding. Trick is, knowing when to switch gears and against what opponents.

Specific notes rool!

[ISF]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty much a direct contradiction

[/ QUOTE ]
I am just trying to say that in the worst case scenario (i.e your opponent has a jack and will cr) a turn bet is not very bad. In most cases mp will not have a jack and the turn bet will be very +EV so the net expectation is very positive.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I am just trying to say that in the worst case scenario (i.e your opponent has a jack and will cr) a turn bet is not very bad. In most cases mp will not have a jack and the turn bet will be very +EV so the net expectation is very positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, thats why I said I knew what you meant, but some of the mewbies that read these may not have. The times I get C/r there compared with the times I actually improve will be +EV, even if the bet itself my be neutral or slightly (-EV) the implied odds make it a bit better, but Im not sure if MP is the one who checkraises, I can get extra bets out of BB and/or MP if he'll fold to my river raise when I improve to trip T's, two higher pair, or the nut flush. And the BB may not call. Its really really close, hence the reason why I posted it.

Thanks for your time.

[RunDownHouse]

I bet this turn every time. I don't get how its -EV. If you've got 14 outs (2 x T, 3 x A, 9 x heart) to the best hand and BB is sticking around on the turn, you'll come out ahead when you hit, right?

EDIT: BB hanging out on the turn is based on the "loose passive as all get out" read.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet it probably in the 85-90% range. Its just the way the hand was set up with MP in position to checkraise the field, and the fact that I was very susceptible to the turn checkraise on this table, I decided that checking to improve was the better option considering I figured there was a very good chance that I was not only behind, but the likelyhood of getting checkraised was around 40%. i know I have outs and the T's are certainly clean, The aces I give say 90% to in case the BB is openended, the hearts are obviously good. I give you that I'm not out on a limb when I get checkraised, but Id rather not get checkraised here in the firstplace.

I can make bets off them on the river if I improve with position anyway. Though I can't make up turn bets. I just felt that I was in fact behind on the turn, and checking with outs seemed to be the right play under the conditions.

[BK_]

im more likely to bet the hand because the flush draw came out, not less.

[BottlesOf]

I'm a little more turn check happy than I should be, and I'm betting this turn.

[bunky9590]

Hey BK,


You still bet with the way I explained my image and players involved?

[bunky9590]

ITS OFFICIAL!!!!!

If Boom Boom bets this turn, a check has to be wrong!!!!! /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Maybe I give too much credit to my reads and put too much thought into things.

[bunky9590]

BB had J7o, MP folded QJ on the river to the raise.

Now I have to go write

"Bunky, you are a results oriented fish" on the effing blackboard like 100 times. Thanks to all for your time.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet it probably in the 85-90% range. Its just the way the hand was set up with MP in position to checkraise the field, and the fact that I was very susceptible to the turn checkraise on this table, I decided that checking to improve was the better option considering I figured there was a very good chance that I was not only behind, but the likelyhood of getting checkraised was around 40%. i know I have outs and the T's are certainly clean, The aces I give say 90% to in case the BB is openended, the hearts are obviously good. I give you that I'm not out on a limb when I get checkraised, but Id rather not get checkraised here in the firstplace.

I can make bets off them on the river if I improve with position anyway. Though I can't make up turn bets. I just felt that I was in fact behind on the turn, and checking with outs seemed to be the right play under the conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

The way you describe MP makes me thik that you're ahead of his draw often enough to bet this spot 100% of the time. As you said, you will make bets on the river when you improve, but I think the fact that both of them may be (are probably?) drawing against you overrides the risk of a C/R, especially since your draw is so big if you're behind.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
The way you describe MP makes me thik that you're ahead of his draw often enough to bet this spot 100% of the time. As you said, you will make bets on the river when you improve, but I think the fact that both of them may be (are probably?) drawing against you overrides the risk of a C/R, especially since your draw is so big if you're behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the way I described MP was he was likely NOT drawing against me but rather had some sort of made hand.

BB could have had anything.

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]
I just felt that I was in fact behind on the turn, and checking with outs seemed to be the right play under the conditions.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're thinking of this too much like a NL player...

You bet ace-high no draw here because you don't have outs. You check or bet ATo here because you might be winning and you have some outs. You definitely bet AhTh here because you aren't that afraid of putting in 2 bets and your hand still is a candidate of being best.

I'm really shocked that you aren't betting this looking to 3-bet it /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
You're thinking of this too much like a NL player...


[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Ive been playing a little NL as of late as well. I gotta stop that stuff. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]
You bet ace-high no draw here because you don't have outs. You check or bet ATo here because you might be winning and you have some outs. You definitely bet AhTh here because you aren't that afraid of putting in 2 bets and your hand still is a candidate of being best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I kinda took the concept a little too far didn't I?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really shocked that you aren't betting this looking to 3-bet it

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably because I suck. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

P.S. You see my away message on AIM yet?

[RunDownHouse]

Assuming 14 outs, MP on a J and BB hanging around on the turn but folding the river:

Don't improve: Bunky pays 2BBs on the turn, folds river.
-2BB

Improve: 3 players pay 2BB on the turn, MP and Bunky both pay 2 on the river.
+6BB

When you don't improve: -2BB * .66 = -1.33BB

When you improve: 6BB * .33 = 2BB

EV: +.66 BB

Correct? This makes Schneid's "bet so you can 3bet" even better, again assuming BB won't fold until the river.

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the turn check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thought process at the time. MP is way capable of making a checkraise with a Decent Jack. He would get an extra bet from me and BB if he did it. I had my usual image of hammer down. When I picked up the nut flush draw to go with middle pair, I decided to check when I picked up more outs rather that risk the checkraise. I had to fold to a couple checkraises in earlier orbits, so it was a bit more likely for MP to take a shot at me.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is weak tight thinking IMO. I will bet this turn far more often with the flush draw because my pot quity is that much higher, which makes it

1. more money when I'm ahead, less cleqan outs my oppoents have
2. More pot equity when I'm behind, basically more outs, so payign two bets on the turn here is not the end of the world.
3. 1 + 2 = +EV

Actually, i even bet it without the flush draw, Giving free cards here sux. Period.

[MAxx]

i have not read any responses, but I dont see any reason not to bet turn and call a raise?

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually the way I described MP was he was likely NOT drawing against me but rather had some sort of made hand.

BB could have had anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note that I didn't say it was likely. I said "enough." Which I think is true, and it seems some others as well.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Actually the way I described MP was he was likely NOT drawing against me but rather had some sort of made hand.

BB could have had anything.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Note that I didn't say it was likely. I said "enough." Which I think is true, and it seems some others as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understood. Seems as if I suck at poker anyway for not betting this turn. Time to break back out the skirt and heels I suppose. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Evan]

The turn check is awful. You are giving up way too much value with what is almost surely the best hand and a lot of draws that can't wait to call you.

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
I understood. Seems as if I suck at poker anyway for not betting this turn. Time to break back out the skirt and heels I suppose. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair 'nuff.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn check is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, Ive already been convinced of that. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[ QUOTE ]
You are giving up way too much value with what is almost surely the best hand and a lot of draws that can't wait to call you.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to my read, it is SURELY not the best hand at the moment (on the turn that is) but sure does have extreme potential to draw to it. I agree now that my pot equity even when i'm behind makes this bet +EV.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]

According to my read, it is SURELY not the best hand at the moment

[/ QUOTE ]
I understand that you are all about reads and that's fine, but I have never seen anyone in that game not capable of having a worse hand than yours on the turn. Even the guys that are unlikely to have a worse hand are few and far between. People love to call flop bets so I think you're treading on very very thin ice by being so sure that you are not winning on the turn.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
I understand that you are all about reads and that's fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that they BOTH had jacks, id say it was more than fine. Though I agree now that i majorly effed up by not betting the turn, brah.

[ QUOTE ]
but I have never seen anyone in that game not capable of having a worse hand than yours on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct sir. This time I was really really sure though.

[ QUOTE ]
People love to call flop bets so I think you're treading on very very thin ice by being so sure that you are not winning on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could hear it cracking, but I didn't fall through. Thanks for the input bud. The math (as well as common sense) indicates that betting that turn is way +EV. I won't make that mistake again. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Thanks for kicking my @$$ and keeping me straight, tough love.

[Nate tha' Great]

Bunky,

No me gusta el turn checko. I'm sure others have elaborated.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I understand that you are all about reads and that's fine

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering that they BOTH had jacks, id say it was more than fine. Though I agree now that i majorly effed up by not betting the turn, brah.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you read them for better hands when all they've done is check-call?

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
How can you read them for better hands when all they've done is check-call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sixth sense. It's liek I can see into their soul via the net. Seriously I'm sick like that.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
No me gusta el turn checko. I'm sure others have elaborated.




[/ QUOTE ]

Things Ive learned from this thread.

Preflop position raise with ATs +.50BB/100

Flop bet with position with middle pair, best kicker and backdoor draws +.20 BB/100

River raise with clearly the best hand +2.00 BB/100

Turn play by being a weak little skirt wearing chippie and missing a few bets -3.00 BB/100

Getting ripped by your friends for being that weak tight little girlie on the turn?

Priceless. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Thanks to all for the responses.