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jasonHoldEm
03-04-2005, 06:49 AM
Hi guys,

I'm still learning my way around the NL tables (currently playing NL50 at Party). Most of you probably know me, I've been a successful 3/6 player for a couple years now but have grown weary of the grind at the limit tables and have decided to move over to NLHE.

This hand came up and I wasn't sure of the best course of action. So many different possibilities (i.e. could have limped in instead of raising, amount of my bet on the flop, etc). I thought there were a number of interesting concepts at work so I'd like to get some feedback.

NL50 (10 handed)

I have around $75 in my stack. Villian in this hand has about the same size stack, he's been somewhat tight, but is willing to make some moves once he enters a pot.

Folded to me in MP I open for $2 with red tens, villan is right behind me and calls, everyone else folds.

FLOP: 2,4,9 (two-tone, I have the T of the flushing suit)

I bet $5 (the pot basically), villian min-raises to $10.

What's the best course of action from this point forward?

Some thoughts:

I will say the min-raise is not typical for him, usually he was putting in half-pot/pot sized bets and raises (so a more typical raise for him in this spot would have been maybe $15).

As far as his range of hands go: He would have re-raised preflop with big pairs and probably 50/50 with AK. He would have called with big suited aces, probably most suited broadway connectors (KQs, QJs, maybe JTs). He would have called with most other pairs (although 44 and 22 are somewhat less likely I think). Given his unusual min-raise and his history of making some post-flop moves I wasn't sure where I was at in the hand. I easily could be looking at baiting raise with 99, but just as easily he might be fishing with something like a strong suited ace looking to maybe pick up the pot or get a free card to his flush draw with overcards. Lots of possibilities...

Thanks,
Jason

jasonHoldEm
03-04-2005, 07:12 AM
I'm going to answer my own question because I want you guys to check my thinking. Please read what's below in white after you've thought about the hand (and then don't change your answer /images/graemlins/smile.gif ). Please let me know what you think of my ideas too.

<font color="white">I think the best play in this situation against this sort of player is a fold. Yes, at least some of the time I'm folding the best hand, but chances are if he's making a play he's doing so with a hand that has a lot of outs to improve (both literal outs and bluffing outs) and it's going to be difficult for me to play my hand profitablly from this point forward. Any flush card or overcard is going to be pretty scary given the action up to this point and his tendencies. If I could do the hand over, I wonder if making a smaller bet (i.e. half the pot maybe) on the flop would have been a better choice? I'm still putting enough out there he's going to fold if he hasn't hit, but if he comes back at me and I'm forced to fold I lose less.</font>

MarkL444
03-04-2005, 07:23 AM
you said he would reraise preflop with big pairs. so i am ruling out AA-JJ, yes? Other concern would be a set. Is he going to raise a set here? I think he is much more likely to wait, since you are showing a lot of aggression and making large bets. What is more likely from the minraise is him wanting to see the river. I think his most likely hand is a four flush, which almost has to include two overs with it, at the very least it has one. off the top of my head you are a slight dog if he has a hand like KQs with teh four flush. what do you think of calling this bet and seeing the turn? if it is a brick, maybe lead into him for around 3/4 the pot? (not sure what the best bet size would be there)

jasonHoldEm
03-04-2005, 07:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
so i am ruling out AA-JJ,

[/ QUOTE ]

Doh, I should have clarified big pairs, sorry. He definitely would have re-raised AA &amp; KK, most of the time with QQ (maybe 80/20), probably 50/50 or less with JJ because I was opening from MP.

In the actual hand I did call the raise with the intention of betting into a blank, but after the fact I'm not so sure this was the best idea (why I posted the hand). There's just so many cards that can come on the turn that kill my hand, and he might have me beaten already (I'm not so sure he'd slowplay a set here because of the flush draw). If I call and bet a blank and he does have a set then I'm losing a lot more.

I actually thought about coming over the top instead for maybe $25 or so (figuring I'm going to lose this money anyways if I'm beaten and bet the turn, but this way I can punish a semi-bluff and might get something like JJ or maybe even QQ to lay down as well). Any thoughts on that?

Thanks,
J

josie_wales
03-04-2005, 09:23 AM
J,

What if, instead of red tens, you had red aces.

You are still in the same basic postion (except for the fear of overcards....but that is not your main concern.)

You are basically concerned with the set or flush draw.

Go with your reads, jason, because your read seems solid in this case. Good analysis and thought from what you have seen from the villain.

You are probably right that the min-raise is signifying a big hand judging from what you have seen of this opponent in the past.

jw

zaxx19
03-04-2005, 09:36 AM
SET...........

RUN..........