Am I a scaredy little girl?

[cjmewett]

Paradise $.50/$1.00 NLHE 5-max

Seat 1: SB ($50.00 in chips)
Seat 3: BB ($176.50 in chips)
Seat 4: HERO ($153.00 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG+1 ($53.50 in chips)

SB: Post Small Blind ($0.50)
BB: Post Big Blind ($1)
Dealing...
Dealt to HERO [ K /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]

HERO: Raise ($3.50)
UTG+1: Call ($3.50)
SB: Call ($3)
BB: Call ($2.50)

*** FLOP *** : [ Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif ]
SB: Check
BB: Bet ($1)
HERO: Raise ($9)
UTG+1: Call ($9)
SB: Raise ($46.50)
BB: Fold

My action, SB is all in and UTG+1 will most likely call all-in with his obvious diamond draw (superfish, he'll call nearly anything on a draw, it seems).

Does everyone think this is a clear fold?

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone think this is a clear fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Think about what the SB has seen so far. You put in a decent raise UTG. When bet into on the flop you put in a decent raise. He still check raises you all in. For all he knows you have AA/KK. His raise isn't anything huge, I dont know how afraid of a call he is here.

On a side not, I think you should raise more on the flop. The pot is $15 after BB's bet. Your raise makes it $24. They are getting over 2.5-1 and will get even better if they are overcalling. This is a pretty draw heavy flop and I think you are likely to get called even if you bet a little more. Why not charge them as much as you can? I would raise the pot (about $15) and play it from there.

Mark

[cjmewett]

[ QUOTE ]
I would raise the pot (about $15) and play it from there.

[/ QUOTE ]Do I really want to play a monster pot with just TPGK? If I raise more and get callers, considering the lack of stack depth from the other players, I'm almost locking myself in to paying off any bigger hand (sets, AQ, etc).

I don't think a bigger flop raise is the answer.

[ QUOTE ]
His raise isn't anything huge, I dont know how afraid of a call he is here.

[/ QUOTE ]He raised five times my bet, which -- after his $9 call goes in -- turns out to be about 75% of the pot. He's also all-in. I view this as a pretty substantial raise.

[MarkL444]

Why did you raise the flop then?

[Skjonne]

[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone think this is a clear fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely.

Unless you've got SB classified as an uber maniac, he got you beat by a mile. Probably a set, maybe only two pairs

[cjmewett]

I'm raising the flop to thin the field and get more money in with what, up til now, seems to be the best hand. Having said that, I don't want to make an all-in decision when I get three callers and an ace or a diamond falls on the turn. If the pot stays small(ish), I don't have this concern (and will only pay off an overbet if I improve).

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop to thin the field and get more money in with what, up til now, seems to be the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to have a little more faith that you have the best hand right now. You do a solid amount of the time. What you need to worry about is everyone else. They are trying to catch up to you. Now, with your raise, you get to control the odds they get. This is the beauty of NL. There are a lot of draws out there. You need to be charging them enough. Not doing so is bad.

Did you just pick $9 out of nowhere? Was it, "This seems like a big enough raise to get everyone to fold"?

Think about hands like A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif or 9 /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif. What odds do they need to call?

[cjmewett]

The raise to $9 is giving 24 to 9 (2.7:1) to the guy immediately to my left. Even assuming he calls, the SB is only getting 33 to 9 (3.7:1). Seeing as the turn can't be expected to be free, you can't call with these odds.

You have to allow other players to make mistakes, not charge them an exorbitant amount that discourages them from doing so.

If I raise to 15, for example, then all of a sudden we're giving straight 2:1 in a big pot. Who's going to make the mistake and call here? A set will call. Two pair will call. Top pair no kicker isn't calling, and draws aren't calling. MAYBE AKd calls, and I can't even charge him enough to stay out.

I disagree with your premise that the raise isn't large enough. I'm value betting what should be the best hand, not trying to take down the pot on the flop.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
Who's going to make the mistake and call here?

[/ QUOTE ]

they are.

[ QUOTE ]
draws aren't calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes they are.

maybe you are right that i wanted to charge too much, but i still think your number is too low. maybe somewhere in between?

[cjmewett]

In a perfect world, we know we have the best hand, go all-in on the flop, and get called by all the draws and worse hands. In reality, overbets don't always work like this for one of two reasons:

1. You lose value from guys who would have called 3/4 pot bets with a draw that doesn't justify it, but not 5/4 pot bets.

2. You get calls from guys whose raises would have allowed you to fold had you not gone all-in.

I'm quite certain that UTG+1 was calling regardless of the bet, and considering this fact, you're probably right that I should have charged the maximum. Having said that, I couldn't really gauge the fact that he was on a draw until he flat called a raise with two players still to act after him.

I felt like I was charging a significant amount to rule out naked draws, while still betting little enough to be able to get away for a raise. As it happens, this is what I did.

When the SB came back over the top all-in, I folded and UTG+1 called. Turns out he had a naked diamond draw (K9d) and the SB had my hand (minus the backdoor flush possibilities). Nothing crazy on the turn and river and the SB takes it down by showing aggression.

I don't get out-aggressed on these tables usually, but I did this time.

EDIT: There's an interesting discussion in the M/HsPL/NL forum about people making plays and whether or not 2+2-recommended play is weak-tight, essentially. I think this hand is a good example, while also illustrating how difficult it is to be in a situation like this up front. 99% of the time I'd swear that considering this action, I'm beat.

[MarkL444]

for the record, i also would fold here (as i said in my first reply)

i still dont understand why you wouldnt charge more on the flop if you think you are ahead. you are at a low limit table. they are not thinking about what odds they are getting. many people will even call all ins with non nut 4 flushes, as the guy in this hand did. i try to take advantage of this as best i can.