Chip EV v. Money EV

[PoBoy321]

This situation came up for me in a Party 10+1 a little while ago.

6 handed. Blinds were T100/200. My stack is ~1000 but there are 2 shorter stacks at the table.

Hero is the BB with 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Pre-flop: UTG (~T700) Open pushes. UTG+1 (~T2000) flat calls. Folded to me in the big blind.

What should be my move here? I know that this is definitely a push or fold situation, but I can't quite tell what the best move is for me.

UTG could have a very wide range of hands, from any PP, to two face cards to any ace. I feel that the same applies to
UTG+1. Given these range of hands, it's likely that I have the best hand at the moment, although I could be up against as many as 4 over cards. Against 4 overcards, I have about 25% equity, about 36% equity against 3 overs and 45% equity against 2 overs and a lower pocket pair.

Now, if I call and win, I will have a great chip stack, about ~3000 and should be able to coast into the money. If I call and lose, I'm obviously out of it. Given the money in the pot, I have odds to push no matter what the situation is, although this could certainly cripple me for placing.

I decided to come over the top for about another 300.

Thoughts?

[johnnybeef]

easy fold. to understand why, check out the gap concept in tpfap.

[curtains]

I would fold. Too likely you are dominated by an overpair and when you aren't you may be up against anywhere from 2-4 overcards.

[MagnoliasFM]

I like the push. You have an overpair more often than you have an underpair in this situation on Party $11. UTG is pushing with Ax or any pair, and UTG is calling with overcards or any pair. You are either up against 2 A-x hands, which is good, 2 overcards and a lower pair, which is really good, and is the most common outcome in this situation, or once in a while if you're unlucky you'll be up against an overpair. You might even be against 2 underpairs. You will almost never be against 4 different overcards. Even though you might be a dog to win the pot over the full range of hands your opponent might have, it is +EV and worth the risk, as you will greatly increase your winning chances if you win the pot and become the chip leader, but by folding you are letting your options run out as the short stack. This is a perfect example of the inflection point.

[curtains]

btw - I'm not so confident about my answer to this post.

[parappa]

Because there is a caller, I would fold. You can't overcall here. If it were folded around to me, I would likely call. With bigger stacks it would become a fold, then an easy fold.

The gap concept doesn't apply here: there is no gap, UTG could be pushing with anything. However, CEV/$EV concerns are most important, and UTG+1 calling is so valuable to you that it trumps any thoughts of the equity you're giving up by folding 99 (which is probably not that much--they've got at least 2 overcards between them, and UTG+1 is reasonably likely to have you crushed).

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that this is definitely a push or fold situation

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no reason to push since there is no one left to act behind you, and you have zero folding equity. If you play this, you must call and then push on any flop.

The result is likely the same, but this is the standard play.

[Scuba Chuck]

There's a lot more to think about here than just your hole cards.

This is not such an easy answer because you are missing information. Particularly, what are the other stacks (be more specific)? What is your position relative to all the stacks? What has been going on at your table? How soon until the blinds change? Any other table reads?

Without this info, I hesitate to give a response, but from just the info provided, I'll assume the following. 6 handed, before this hand, there are 3 stacks smaller than you (verifying I'm reading you right). You have 1000 chips Preflop. If UTG+3 is a monster stack in this hand, I'd be more inclined to consider putting my chips in the middle. If you have any FE against UTG+3 (or UTG+1 loses current hand), then I think I'd fold and push any two the following hand (or against UTG+3).

Since, this is a $10+1, I think it's fair to assume that there is no understanding of FE at your table. This table is on the verge of a series of showdowns, starting with this hand. Assuming blinds increase soon, and you fold this hand, there are 3 total stacks (including you) that are 'behind the 8 ball' to make a move soon.

I'm guessing this decision is closer than it appears. Good question. What's your read on UTG+1? Can you put his range of hands to include pairs smaller than yours?

One last thought. This may not be JUST a push or fold scenario. With your position, it is possible to do a stop-n-go here with villain. I don't hesitate to think that $10+1ers can make the mistake of folding here. In fact, if you decide to push, I think this line of thinking makes more sense.

As you can see, there is no easy answer here, especially with all the missing info.

If this was a $33, it would concern me a little that UTG+1 smooth called villain, instead of trying to isolate.

[Scuba Chuck]

Dammit Philly, you beat me to it. I agree, the stop-n-go is the line you use if you're pushing here.

[PoBoy321]

I'm sorry about the missing information from this hand, I'm new to posting hands in the STT forum, so I didn't have the complete hand history and all of the relevant information.

Either way, I came over the top and UTG+1 called.

UTG showed QJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, UTG+1 showed A8o. I was in about as good shape as I could hope, but really wasn't happy being against 3 overs. Flop came A high and I was out.