Too much heat?

[Michael Davis]

UTG is good. CO is a raging psycho.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: PIMP is MP with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">PIMP 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO caps</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, PIMP calls.

Flop: (16.40 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PIMP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, PIMP calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (16.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, PIMP calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, PIMP calls, CO calls, BB calls.


River: (28.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">PIMP bets</font>

[TStoneMBD]

looks good

[Scotch78]

If UTG is good enough to recognize and adapt to the CO's maniacal tendencies, then he could easily be pushing an overpair on the drawy board. However, that would also make him good enough to realize that an overpair doesn't have much equity on this board against three opponents who have all shown aggression at some point. I don't see him 3-betting the turn without a set, but I can see him checking the river with one.

Since the BB slowed down so fast, I wouldn't worry significantly about him.

The CO could have a flush or just decide to bluff-raise anyhow. I do think he'll raise a fair percentage of the time though.

And that's where things get interesting. The BB called two cold on the turn and the pot's enormous now, so he'll call. UTG isn't folding a set. So, whether the CO raises or not, I think you're getting 3-1, and the question becomes whether UTG has a smaller set and the CO doesn't have a flush at least one quarter of the time. It would take balls and a tough stomach to make this bet, but I do think it'll show a small profit.

Scott

[stripsqueez]

this reminds me of crockpots post i just replied to

i like bet but its plenty scary - if i'm confident of callers with worse hands i pretty much always bet - i'm mostly scared by someone before me not betting a straight in fear of the flush

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[MAxx]

i like it too