American Idol

[critterdude]

I picked up Anwar Robinson at $17.5 and Bo Bice at $12.50. Thoughts on these pickups at these prices and when should I sell?

[Bytestream]

Anwar has no chance of winning. This is not a reflection of his talent as a singer. Hes just not popular enough.

Bo might be there till the end, its gonna take another week or two to determine exactly how far he will go...

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Anwar has no chance of winning. This is not a reflection of his talent as a singer. Hes just not popular enough.

Bo might be there till the end, its gonna take another week or two to determine exactly how far he will go...

[/ QUOTE ]

i think his buy (choices, whatever) is perfect. anwar has more talent than bo but is overpriced (overpriced does not mean you can exclude). bo is likely to go very deep so he is underpriced. therefore, as usual, the market is sitting right about where it belongs. bigger bucks to be made on bo, but higher risk involved.

holding only these 2 contestants and playing it smart by selling early on one of them will make you great money imo. a portfolio of anwar and bo only is a g00t portfolio.

here is how to answer which one of these is the gonna be the winner:

take a pool of 100 typical american idol fans and determine if this demographic likes usher better, or u2 better.

further, i would say that the "nascar" block will go to bo and the "urban" block will go to anwar. however, if there is crossover, the crossover will likely be urban voters going to bo instead of nascar voters going to anwar.

now figure out if there are more nascar viewers or urban viewers. yes, blue state/red state all over again.

if one of these viewing pools is substantially larger, you have found your winner. the research at this point should be to investigate throughly HERE (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=ISO-8859-1&q=nielsen+families&btnG=Google+Search)

[Wahoo91]

Where does Mario fit into your analysis.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Where does Mario fit into your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

he will go deep, but will not win. he may be at his high on share price for the duration so there is no short term opportunities IMO.

my idol buys are done. here is my current positions and there will be only selling from this point forward

Position Report: All Postions 2005

25 AMERIDOL-2005 ANWAR ROBINSON(31249) 19 -24
102 AMERIDOL-2005 BO BICE(31247) 11 - 14
30 AMERIDOL-2005 TRAVIS TUCKER(31257) 2 - 4
119 AMERIDOL-2005 ANTHONY FEDEROV(31248) 4 - 6

[critterdude]

[ QUOTE ]

Position Report: All Postions 2005

25 AMERIDOL-2005 ANWAR ROBINSON(31249) 19 -24
102 AMERIDOL-2005 BO BICE(31247) 11 - 14
30 AMERIDOL-2005 TRAVIS TUCKER(31257) 2 - 4
119 AMERIDOL-2005 ANTHONY FEDEROV(31248) 4 - 6

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel like I picked up a good deal getting Anwar at 17.5

Which site are you trading at?

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]


I feel like I picked up a good deal getting Anwar at 17.5

[/ QUOTE ]

What in the world would make you think that?

[critterdude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I feel like I picked up a good deal getting Anwar at 17.5

[/ QUOTE ]



What in the world would make you think that?

[/ QUOTE ]

First he is up to about $22 right now and is a low risk (relatively so) wager that should increase over the next couple of weeks. Second if I read Grannie's post right she paid 19+ on her purchase.

That sounds like I got a bargain buy to me.

The big question is setting the magical number to sell Anwar and Bo and when. .

[GrannyMae]

The big question is setting the magical number to sell Anwar and Bo and when. .

the number could depend on many things

the "when" is not for a couple of months from now.

i expect them both to be in final 3. at that point i sell my anwars. i have no intention of ever selling bo.

it is too early to have done so, but bo is my pick. however, my portfolio allows him to not be the winner and me still break even or turn a small profit.

i'm very happy with my positions this year. i think i have protections that i have never had.

most importantly, this market is KA-put for good plays IMO, so i can just enjoy the rest of the season and not obsess over the futures.

[RollaJ]

Granny how much have you laid out?.....if youd rather not say I expect a smiley with a middle finger

[GrannyMae]

Grannie's post right she paid 19+ on her purchase.


no, those were current prices at time of report. my avg. contract price on anwar is $22.09

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Granny how much have you laid out?.....if youd rather not say I expect a smiley with a middle finger

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, since i posted my positions it is not a big secret (though i did not post my avg. contract prices)

anyhoo, about $2,700 total invested. so as i said, even an anwar win is fine. i really can't lose too much unless carrie or mario win and i do not see it coming. if i see it coming, i still will have plenty of equity to dump and therefore not lose much.

my dream is a bo + anthony top 2. i sell anthony at $40ish, making about $36 profit per contract, and hold bo to one pay.

[critterdude]

[ QUOTE ]
Grannie's post right she paid 19+ on her purchase.


no, those were current prices at time of report. my avg. contract price on anwar is $22.09

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm really enjoying my purchase of him.

Bo may be your pick but Anwar was mine since the innitial auditions and I have seen no reason to change it. Your scenario of Bo and Anwar in final 3 sounds real good to me.

PS I wish I could post under my old handle. Lots of things I could discuss after going pro in Jan.

[RollaJ]

Given that scenario, wouldnt it be a lot safer/ smarter to hold both and guarentee yourself 10,200 - 11,900 as opposed to a guarenteed 4000 and 50% chance of 14,000

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that scenario, wouldnt it be a lot safer/ smarter to hold both and guarentee yourself 10,200 - 11,900 as opposed to a guarenteed 4000 and 50% chance of 14,000

[/ QUOTE ]

this is certainly an option if my confidence is low. that's what i meant by saying i was very pleased with my positions this year.

i have many outs. this being one of them.