what to fix and where to look.

[ferb]

Feb was first month at party. Managed to play 232 $10sng. ROI 19.91%. ITM 37.5%. I am happy to be making money but wondering how to increase my ROI. Is it worthwhile pouring through pokertracker stats? If so what sort of things should i be looking for. How diligent of note takers are you more successful players. Do you guys take notes during tourns? I find it difficult when 3or4-tabling. Is there much value in going though other players in pokertracker and then exporting them. It seems to me that of the 2000 or so players in my database that only about 10% of them i have more than one tourney against.

[wiggs73]

I'm honestly not sure that anything needs fixing. ~20% ROI isn't bad, especially when you consider 3-4 tabling, which you said you do. I don't think pouring through PT data or taking notes is going to help. If you do anything, dig through some hand histories and post hands you had a difficult time knowing what to do with on here. I'd also examine your bubble play and make sure you aren't being overly passive or overly aggressive on the bubble.

[ZebraAss]

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gifEXPERIENCE /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Slim Pickens]

Just so you know, you might as well not even keep track of ROI over that short an interval. I'm in a similar situation now, and had the fortune to have a run of 180 tournaments (167 now, but I'll make it an even number to avoid scaling problems) that broke down thusly:

1-90: ROI=41%, ITM=42%
91-180: ROI~-5%, ITM~32%
overall so far: ROI=20%, ITM=38%

I'm going to dig through PT stats (filters... lots of filters) to find out...
1)if is the result of normal variance or did my style of play change for the worse. What happened to my calling standards, stealing hands, and such?
2)how much of my earlier good results were the result of luck. Did I have to suck out on somebody every single time to get ITM? I don't know, but the nice thing is 180 is not so large a sample I can't look at every single big pot in which I was involved and how I got there, plus every steal I attempted and how well it worked.

Anyway... more to follow.

Slim

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
Just so you know, you might as well not even keep track of ROI over that short an interval. I'm in a similar situation now, and had the fortune to have a run of 180 tournaments (167 now, but I'll make it an even number to avoid scaling problems) that broke down thusly:

1-90: ROI=41%, ITM=42%
91-180: ROI~-5%, ITM~32%
overall so far: ROI=20%, ITM=38%

I'm going to dig through PT stats (filters... lots of filters) to find out...
1)if is the result of normal variance or did my style of play change for the worse. What happened to my calling standards, stealing hands, and such?
2)how much of my earlier good results were the result of luck. Did I have to suck out on somebody every single time to get ITM? I don't know, but the nice thing is 180 is not so large a sample I can't look at every single big pot in which I was involved and how I got there, plus every steal I attempted and how well it worked.

Anyway... more to follow.

Slim

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim, no idea if it would apply to you or not, but I recently had a similar run and realized that I was being WAY too aggressive short handed. I think it's good to be able to attempt a steal with literally any 2 cards, but often times, it's best not to. I think when I open-pushed w/ 2-7o and got called, I finally realized this. ITM and ROI have been rebounding since. Might apply to you, might not, but I thought I'd throw it out there.

[Slim Pickens]

Thanks wiggs. Stealing is actually the first thing I'm going to look at since my impression is that I'm taking a lot of 5th and 6ths lately (not really a lot of 4ths) by getting steals busted on levels 4 and 5. Maybe the BB keeps picking up aces or A7s has been sucking out on my AQ, but I need to go look.

[ferb]

Also add finish detail.

1. 36(15.45%)
2. 27(11.59%)
3. 25(10.73%)
4. 37(15.88%)
5. 30(12.88%)
6. 32(13.73%)
7. 16(6.87%)
8. 11(4.72%)
9. 12(5.15%)
10. 7(3.00%)

Anything to be alarmed about with the number of 4th 5th place finishes. Hopefully eastbay's calculator will fix this.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Also add finish detail.

1. 36(15.45%)
2. 27(11.59%)
3. 25(10.73%)
4. 37(15.88%)
5. 30(12.88%)
6. 32(13.73%)
7. 16(6.87%)
8. 11(4.72%)
9. 12(5.15%)
10. 7(3.00%)

Anything to be alarmed about with the number of 4th 5th place finishes. Hopefully eastbay's calculator will fix this.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're lower than mine (I'm pretty sure at least...) over my last 300. And I'm not alarmed (just making sure the noose in the middle of my room is gtg when I am).

Yugoslav

[ferb]

All things considered and with a 1800 bank roll should i consider a move to the $20's?

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
All things considered and with a 1800 bank roll should i consider a move to the $20's?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you have the roll to at least take a shot.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
All things considered


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know what this means. Given your stats? Your finish distribution? Given your skill (which I have no way to measure)? Given the alignment of the moon this month?

[ QUOTE ]

and with a 1800 bank roll should i consider a move to the $20's?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. Sounds good to me.

Yugoslav

[ferb]

moon alignment.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
moon alignment.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh. Then you need to pull the trigger and move up. Just stay away from Saabpo and you'll be fine, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[ferb]

cheers. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Slim Pickens]

Here are the final numbers over the 180 tournaments I will now subject to my thorough and pointless analysis. They broke down beautifully into Phase One (tournaments 1-90) and Phase Two (91-180).

Phase One:
ROI=41.4%
ITM=42.2%
Phase Two:
ROI=<font color="red">-5.1%</font>
ITM=32.2%

The plan here is to figure out what was different beween the two phases. Some things I'm going to look at:

1) Suckouts 5-7 handed. One big suckout and you're ITM. Was this happening a lot? When I ended up in a big pot, was I the favorite most of the time? Did I then win most of the time?
2) STEALING!!! What hands was I stealing with exactly? How often was it successful? What was the typical caller's hand? Did I win a fraction of my busted steals commensurate with my EV when the cards were turned?
3) Early play. Was I hitting more big pots early when I was winning? What about a cold deck? It didn't seem like the cards were any different.

The point of all this is to decide, without having to play two thousand more SnG's, what my real ROI might be. The nice thing about poker is that even if six bozos calling my steals with KTo suck out on me, I can tell that's exactly what happened, and still calculate an EV based on infintie number of trials without having to use any emperical data.

More to follow...

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Slim,

Good contributions to a good thread. As I mentioned when posting my fairly average recent results in the February results thread, I'm less concerned about my absolute agression level, but more worried about applying it in appropriate spots.

Thinking about things like the relative importance of cards, position and stack sizes when deciding to open-push (and recognising it isn't neccessarily in that order!), and also just because I steal with some random 2 cards on one hand doesn't mean I should steal with the next 2 random cards I get.

I'd certainly be interested to hear the outcome of your investigations into your recent play, please keep us all informed.

BLP

[johnnybeef]

why dont you start this in a new thread?

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
moon alignment.

[/ QUOTE ]

better hurry. . .the moon in waning

[Slim Pickens]

Will do... just want to get a few details worked out first.

[setter]

Just a quick thing about taking notes, when multitabling it is hard to take specific notes for future times you may play them as with the 10+1 it is highly unlikely you are going to see the same players twice over a a 2 week period. But I would keep general notes like these... calling raises with this type of hand, agrresive/ passive at bubble time, plays ace/any etc. Those things do help over time when you forget that you played that person amonth before. The higher limits 50+5 and up, notes are needing to be more in depth. But like others have said, post hand histories and see what type of hands you went out on (played out of position, unwilling to give up strong staring hands when likely beat, overplaying draws etc.)

Good luck