How can I only have a W$SD of 47.61% after 10k hands?? Help!

[Bytestream]

At 3/6 I am down 200bb in 10k hands. Havent had a winning session in two and half weeks.

I have a net loss of $110 with AKo in 101 times dealt.
I have won $60 (10 bb) with AKs after being dealt the hand 40 times.

Ive won 46% of showdowns.

Bad luck or do I suck? The 30k hands prior I managed to have a winrate of 2+BB/100. I dont know what has happened.

[QTip]

I'd be interested in knowing the rest of your stats, VPIP and what your fold % are and fold to river bet %.

[PokerBob]

How can I only have a W$SD of 47.61% after 10k hands?? Help!

[ QUOTE ]
At 3/6 I am down 200bb in 10k hands.

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Doesn't that answer your question? Seriously though, you may just be getting drawn out on a lot. That said, it is entirely possible that you are taking some hands too far in pots that don't warrant it. Post some hands. Keep your chin up. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[einbert]

How often are you going to showdown?

It sounds like you're running bad, but you might be calling down too much. When I had a bad run at 3/6 I started calling down too much as a result of it and it made the downswing worse.

[Bytestream]

VPIP 19 PFR 11 WSD 33
Fold to River bet 13%

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to River bet 13%

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That's REALLY low. I think what Einbert and PokerBob said probably are applying here...hands are going to far and you're calling down with poor hands.

I think the majority of players have Fold to River Bet % of @ 40 to 50%

[irongarden]

A 10k hand losing streak is unpleasant, but not unreasonable. You may want to examine some of your worst sessions to see if you tilted at all. It's very easy to tilt a bit (or a lot) without knowing it, especially after busting out on a couple of tables in a row.

[DeeJ]

fold to river bet is very low. But this is probably a tiny sample size and may easily be unrepresentative.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
But this is probably a tiny sample size and may easily be unrepresentative.

[/ QUOTE ]

True...I'm not a stats expert, but would you be able to check out your river aggression here and match these up. For example, if you're the bettor and getting called down and losing, you're not folding to a river bet. However, if you're river AF was standard or low, and you're fold to river bet % was low like this, I think it would be safe to safe even after only 10K hands that you're calling with poor hands too frequently.

[ZootMurph]

Yep, my fold to river bet % is 44%

[brettbrettr]

TINY SAMPLE.

[QTip]

Agreed...but would you still agree with my statement?

[chief444]

I agree it's a very small sample but that fold to river bet % does seem to be ridiculously low and does coorespond with the low W$SD % (and losing play). But it's hard to say without actually looking at some hands.

[QTip]

Do you also feel like the river AF would come into play here. For example, if he has a standard to low river AF combined with this fold to river bet %, I think that would really tell a story about the W$SD.

[Bytestream]

Maybe Im not giving you the right stat. The fold to river bet % is when you go to "more detail" in PT.

The 13% is the almost exactly the same when I filter the first 30k hands in the database when I was actually a winnning player, so perhaps Im confused to what stat Im giving you....

I cant imagine going to the river and folding 50% of the time you get there.

[einbert]

I think there's a really good chance you're calling too much on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP 19 PFR 11 WSD 33
Fold to River bet 13%

[/ QUOTE ]

I reccomend that you set PT to display stats for the last 10k hands, then go to the "Misc Stats" tab. Check the box that says "Show only hands that were not folded" and look at the number by "High card".

If that number is really low, you're calling down way too much with ace high (very possible). Also look at the number by One Pair. It should be positive.

Post some hands that you think might have been questionable calldowns, especially HU and threeway hands rather than multiway hands.

[Bytestream]

I did this sort. All the categories were positive. One pair was $189 (won at sd% 31), high card was $348.

[chief444]

Just post some hands. Stats can be misleading, especially with such a small sample. It is good though that you're looking at your play instead of just blaming it on a "downswing" or bad luck.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I did this sort. All the categories were positive. One pair was $189 (won at sd% 31), high card was $348.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting. Yeah, I would agree that you should probably just post some hands where you called aggression down with ace high or one pair.

A downswing of 10k hands is very far from improbable. I had a breakeven run of about 7k hands, then I immediately hit a 200BB upswing over the next 5k or so hands. So just keep analyzing your play and studying and concentrating and you should do well.