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View Full Version : action out of turn complicates analysis


Doctor_Flush
03-03-2005, 08:48 AM
Just moved to a new table, early in a 150-player B&M NL hold 'em tourney. Average stack about 4000. I have about 3600. I've only watched about 6 hands at this table, and don't know anybody. Blinds are 50/100, no ante. 11 players per table.

I'm dealt AT hearts in the BB. It's folded around to the short stack in middle position. He's played several of the hands I've watched, and folded them. Looks to be loose/weak (which may explain why he's the short stack, with about 1600 chips left). I'll call him Mr. LW. He raises to 200. It's folded around to the SB, with maybe 5000 chips left, who calls. (I haven't seen the SB play any hands, so don't know anything about him.) I call.

Flop is rainbow 10-8-3, so I have top pair and top kicker. Mr. LW bets 300. I quickly decide to put him all in, since he has shown a tendency to fold, and I guess I'm about 50-50 to be ahead of him now anyway, given his tendency to play way too many hands. So I announce, "all in."

Oops. I forgot that SB is still in the hand. He's just quietly thinking. (To ameliorate my guilt a bit, he's one of those annoying guys who always keep their hands over their hole cards, so you can't see at a glance if they're still in or not. But it was my mistake anyway.)

This faux pas gets some laughs at the table. One player says to SB smilingly, "Does that make your decision easier?" SB does not reply. He thinks about 30 seconds, then calls the 300.

This is quite a twist. Now I have to figure out what SB is up to, since he heard my all-in early. I don't think he has an overpair, or he would have re-raised Mr. LW pre-flop. It's unlikely he has hit a set of 10s, since I have a 10. He certainly could have hit a set of 8s or 3s, though. There's no flush or flush draw on the board, and the only straight draw would be a J9 or 79, which don't seem like hands with which he have called a pre-flop raise. If he had a set of 3s or 8s, he could have read my premature all-in announcement as having him beat with a set of 10s.

I decide I'm likely to be ahead of him at this point. My guess is that he's on a draw or has a middle pair that missed the flop. I think that he just called Mr. LW, rather than raising to force me out, because he's hoping that now with 3 people in the pot, I will abandon my all-in and just call, so that he can see another card without putting more money in. Of course, he could be trapping, hoping I will raise.

How would you read this situation?

What would you do?

(I'll let people answer first, then tell you how it played out.)

sloth469
03-03-2005, 09:19 AM
Well there are some casinos that will hold you to your all-in. If this isn't one of them, I think you raise to 750-900 and be done with it if sb comes back over the top. You can not live in fear of a set (stacks are not very deep) my guess is JJ but don't rule out AQ AJ, mid PP or a weaker Ten. Really you need to decide if you are willing to go to war w/ TPTK with 2 cards left to come.

-sloth