AKAK in a multiway 4th hand

[Marco Trevix]

I occasionaly play in a very loose game with different limits (starting to $15-$30 up to $50 $100).
Opponents are terrible, they just want to have fun (throwing money and sometimes making me crazy).

THis hand occurred in a Euro 25-50 limit game with 5 opponents. (Ante 5, bring-in 10)

3rd street:


PL1: xx- 3 BRING-in
PL2: xx- 10
PL3: xx- J
PL4: xx-3
PL5: xx-Q
ME: (K-A)K

Bring-in opens for the minimum, ALL players call and now I have no possibility to draw out anybody except maybe the bring-in. So I decide to call and see what happens.

4th street:

All players catch a card which seems to go well with their boards, that is:

PL1 has xx- 3-3
PL2 xx- 10-Jsuited
PL3: xx-J-K
PL4: xx-3-5suited
PL5: xx-Q-A
ME: (A-K)K-A

THese players are apt to raise (or to stay until the end) with any four flush even if there are other paired doorcards or open pairs on other boards.
PLayer with open threes (first to act) bet the full amount, player2 (10-Js) raises, player 3 call, player4 (3-5s) reraises, player5 folds and now it's my action.
What to do?
a- I don't put the player with open 3s for a trips of 3s because he is the bring-in and there is a 3 out in another hand.
b- PLayer2 has an almost obvious flush draw with LIVE cards (and he is not a player prone to raise on 3rd with 3-flush)
c- In my opinion player4 (a very loose gambler) has some sort of a straight flush draw and small cards are live (two his suited cards are out)
d- Player3 (with J-K showing) has not a suited board but probably a straight draw or a medium hidden pair (or a rolled trips of Jacks but a trips of Jacks is not very likely since a Jack is out)
e- I have no live cards because one Ace and one KIng are out (probably opponents don't know I'm dealt a split pair of kings on 3rd since I'm a chronical raiser with a big pair)

I decide to flat call. All players call the reraise bet.
But I know that a suited card on board 2 and/or board 4 means a clear fold for me. And if they don't hit a suited card have I an advantage to continue the hand until the river?

Would you play the 4th street?

Thanks for any comment.

Marco

[Andy B]

I would still lean towards raising on third street. The Ace makes your hand very strong, and while you'd prefer fewer opponents, I think you still want to get your money in there with the best hand. If your kicker were a 7 or something, then I'd definitely limp.

On fourth street, it is quite likely that you have the best hand. Unfortunately, you don't get paid for having the best hand on fourth street; you get paid for having the best hand on seventh street. You are going to have to show down the best hand. You are familiar with the horse race concept? If you have two pair, and you're heads-up against a flush draw, you are a favorite. If you're in a three-handed pot with two flush draws, you're around even money. If you're in a four-way pot with three flush draws, you become a money underdog. Here, it looks like you're up against a couple of flush draws. Presumably the guy with KJ showing is in trouble. The 33 probably doesn't have trips, but it's still a possibility. That your hand is dead doesn't help matters any. I would probably grit my teeth and call, but I think it's close, and I wouldn't fault anyone for folding in that spot. Three BB is a lot to be throwing after that hand.

The problem with playing on and folding if one of your opponents catches a third suited card is that you're giving them that many more opportunities to win. Both of them probably have flush draws, but if one of them is raising with two pair or a straight draw, you might end up folding the best hand on a later street. This is part of the reason I lean towards folding on fourth the more I think about it. Just don't ever let anyone know you laid down Aces-up on fourth, or you'll never get played with again.

this must be a wild game with the ante size and bring in. no wonder the players are crazy. they may not even be playing incorrectly, since in an 8 handed game you are already getting 2-1 to call the bring in.

the call on third is clearly correct, although it might surprise some people. but if you were suited and all would call then you should definitely raise.

on fourth street you should call to see waht fifth street brings. if you fill then great, and some of these players might back off on fifth after making their "plays" on fourth street. if it is only one bet on fifth and you think you are behind, or even two bets possibly, you might be able to play if all are in since you might have correct odds to draw to a boat. if you think you are beaten already, and if you have the best hand you should raise on fifth.

this is one hell of a tough hand i think. by the way i will be in italy for the next ten days.

Pat

i logged in and it still gave me an "anonymous" plus it wouldnt let me post under my username. anyone know why??

Pat

[DoctorK]

An attempt at mathematical analysis...

As someone else already posted, vs. 2 live flush draws, this Aces up hand is about even money. When you add two other drawing hands, and given that there are two cards our of 40 that make your boat (One Ace, One King, setting aside the odds of runner-runner-runner trips to make a boat) for odds of 19-to-1 against, shouldn't this be a fold based on pot odds?

Before you call on 4th, you've only invested $15 (ante+bring-in) into this pot. If you call on 4th, you're putting 150 into a pot of 480.

Of course, you will win this hand without improvement X amount of times -- I can't figure out what X is, which is the crucial part of this equation. But against two live flush draws, possibly a couple of live two-pair draws, maybe trip threes, and given your relatively minor investment, this seems like a pretty clear fold. Unless I'm underestimating the number of times you'll win with no improvement.

What do you think? /forums/images/icons/confused.gif

an easy fold on 4th. However,if U do decide to play 5th, PLAY it ALL the way and see the last card.
Otherwise,do not play 5th.
It seems as if it might cost U more than 1/2BB on 4th to continue.
Hence, if U do play on 4th for multiple bets,U are committed to playing ALL the way. The pot will then become too large to fold on 5th. I believe by playing 4th,U will compound your error--since U will probably have to continue with a hand that offers very little hope of winning.
Happy pokering,
Sitting Bull

[AlanBostick]

I think the situation calls for a call, and not a raise.

Our hero's hand is even-money to hold up versus two flush draws, and so (pulling numbers out of the air) is something like 2- or 3-to-one dog versus the assembled flush and straight draws.

But note that our hero is up against four opponents: he's getting 4:1 on the money he puts into the pot at this point.

It will be relatively easy to see which opponents improve when. When doubt is small, he can let go easily, but in doubtful cases (say, JTs catches the unsuited case ace) our hero is probably justified in continuing to call.

Our hero isn't the favorite to win; but he is getting the right price to keep playing.

[Marco Trevix]

Thanks to all posters. I like your answers.

I waited mucking several hands (it's not my limit 25-50...) and when I hit a good hand such as Ace's up with KIngs there was no way to fold (but my mind sayed the opposite...)

Anyway, I call the reraise; on 5th all players catched apparent blanks and after all the players checked I bet (at least I wanted my opponents to pay to beat my probable best hand and the checking action meant drawing hands). I got 2 callers (the probable 2 flush draws).
6th street was a 6 for the opponent with 3s-5s-blank-6 board
He came out betting (a sure straight at this point...), flush draw called and me too. No help for me (and for the flush draw) on the river and I donated another 50 bucks to call my opponent who flashed a 2-3-4-5-6 straight with 2-4-A on the hole (did he hit the ace I needed on the river? grrrrrrrrrrr)

Summarizing I lost $315 in that hand

Marco

[FishyWhale]

Another way to think about this hand: What if you'd had Queens and eights with a seven and an eight dead on fourth instead of aces and kings? In this case, it probably would have made little difference to your chances, as the other hands appeared to be draws.You'd still need a full to win. Would you have stayed then? Aces and kings is a pretty hand -- but it's still just a pretty dead two pair.

[DoctorK]

Alan:

He's getting $150 to $480 (or about 3-to-1) on his call here, with others still to act, and the uncertainty that he might face one or maybe even two more raises before it gets back to him.

I'm not sure how you calculated that he's a 2-to-1 dog vs. four draws (if you can explain that computation, I'd appreciate it, because I have a hard time figuring things like that), but even if he were, given that his equity in the pot is now just $15, and due to the size of the pot, everyone should stick around to the river, I think a call is marginal at best, and you sure don't lose much by folding.

[AlanBostick]

I got the "2- or 3-to-1" (not the flat 2:1 number you quote) by guesswork. Just like I said I did. I'm pretty confident it's in the right ballpark.

Given Marco's description of the game, I'd say it's pretty unlikely that the paired treys who opened the betting is going to let his hand go; if Marco stays in he is getting at worst 3:1 for his calls and ideally 4:1.

If the paired treys calls, then even if there is a raise and a reraise afterwards Marco is not merely getting the right price to call; he is getting the best of the fourth-street action. Yes, he's a dog to be the winner; but he will win more money when he wins than he loses when he doesn't -- especially when you consider that he can easily fold if an opponent catches good on a later street. Marco is in the position to lay his opponents reverse implied odds for his calls.

And if the treys drop out, then even with the prospect of additional raises and reraises, Marco's fourth-street call is still marginal-to-positive-EV.

[DoctorK]

Alan:

I'm still not sure I agree... and I wasn't being sarcastic about your 2 or 3-to-1 figure... I honestly don't know how to roughly compute those kind of figures.

Here's another question for you though -- why does your "title" on your profile say "newbie?" Mine says "stranger" and I don't see where I can change that?

Thanks,

Doc

[Marco Trevix]

Yep, you are right MRBAA.

And this is one of the most interesting things about poker. Anyone is prone to call an Ace raising (meaning a sure pair of ACes) with a pair of Kings but likes to fold a lesser pair (Jacks, Tens, etc)

Marco