*Official* WPT Mirage Poker Showdown thread

[Tyler Durden]

Gabe Kaplan--Mr. Kotter
Scotty Nguyen
John Juanda
Eli Elezra
Minneapolis Jim Meehan
Lee Watkinson

Scotty has more than double the guy in 2nd, Eli Elezra, an awesome player, I sat next to him on cash day of the WSOP and he and Fossilman got involved in some pretty big pots at that table.

[Tyler Durden]

First hand of the show, it's folded to Scotty in the SB. Blinds 10k/20k/2k. He raises Juanda's BB to 50K w/ A9, Juanda thinks a little and moves in for about 500k more w/ AJ, Scotty instacalls and doesn't catch.

Next hand Gabe Kaplan raises w/ KTs, Jim Meehan moves in w/ 99 and Kaplan takes a while and folds.

[Hold'me]

I was surprised by Scotty's instacall there. Did he really think John Juanda was making a move on him that early? I think it was more of a psychological tactic, baby. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Easy E]

I was a little surprised by how quickly Scotty called that. I think that was his plan when he raised- did John deduce that?

I like Mr Kotter's fold there.

Wow- tough beat on that one, Jim, with all of those dead cards. Nice move, you didn't deserve that. I disagree with Mike about stop and go on the flop, though he probably would have taken the pot.

Anyone else?

[ClassicBob]

The new format is pretty cool. Percentages take ties into account, it has shown what 5 cards each player plays along with their hand ranking.

Although they did screw up percentages on the Kaplan-Meehan hand. Meehan with 99 had a 44% chance of winning vs. Kaplan's KT having a 56% chance.

Wow, it also looks like they are taking folded cards into account when calculating percentages.

[voltron87b]

let's go scotty nguyen baby!

[Tyler Durden]

Same blind level, Minneapolis Jim has nearly 500k and raises the 20k BB to 66k w/ JJ. Eli Elezra is next w/ AK and (having Jim covered) makes it 195k. Scotty has K4 (yes, K4) and thinks and asks Eli how much he has behind, then lays it down. Back to Jim and he moves in for 276k more to Eli who quickly calls.

Flop 973. Turn Ace. River bricks and Jim is out in 6th for $94,507.

Mike Sexton, upon Jim's exit says that maybe Jim should have flatcalled the raise and moved in on a ragged flop.

[Tyler Durden]

John raises to 60k w/ 64s, folded to Lee who flatcalls w/ 77.

Flop 985r. Lee checks and John bets 135k. Pot is now 275k. Lee thinks and thinks and mucks.

[ClassicBob]

[ QUOTE ]
John raises to 60k w/ 64s, folded to Lee who flatcalls.

Flop 985r. Lee checks and John bets 135k. Pot is now 275k. Lee thinks and thinks and mucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lee with 77, if anyone thinks that's relevant. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Easy E]

I like the fold to John's big flop bet with the gutshot and two overcards out there.

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]
Same blind level, Minneapolis Jim has nearly 500k and raises the 20k BB to 66k w/ JJ. Eli Elezra is next w/ AK and (having Jim covered) makes it 195k. Scotty has K4 (yes, K4) and thinks and asks Eli how much he has behind, then lays it down. Back to Jim and he moves in for 276k more to Eli who quickly calls.

Flop 973. Turn Ace. River bricks and Jim is out in 6th for $94,507.

Mike Sexton, upon Jim's exit says that maybe Jim should have flatcalled the raise and moved in on a ragged flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, i think the stop-n-go woulda been the best option here

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
John raises to 60k w/ 64s, folded to Lee who flatcalls.

Flop 985r. Lee checks and John bets 135k. Pot is now 275k. Lee thinks and thinks and mucks.

[/ QUOTE ]



Lee with 77, if anyone thinks that's relevant. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops!

[ClassicBob]

Kaplan just calling the 225k bet on the turn seems like a horrible play.

[jar]

I really wish the gutshot hit on the river. Kaplan deserved to lose that hand.

[Tyler Durden]

I totally missed the preflop action of the hand between Gabe and Eli but I think Lee raised.

Flop QJ5 two clubs. Gabe checks and calls w/ AQ. Eli has K9.
Turn bricks, Gabe checks and calls for 225k. River bricks, Eli checks behind and Gabe takes it.

****

Scotty raises the 30k bb to 85k w/ QJ. Next to act John reraises to 260k w/ 88. Back to Scotty and he calls for 175k, he still has the chip lead.

Flop 966. Scotty checks and John bets (pot is 580k) 300k. Scotty folds after some thought.

********

15k/30k/3k.

Eli has AK and raises to 95k. Lee folds A3 on the button. Scotty folds and John has AQ in the BB. He raises to 330k. 235k to Eli and he thinks for a while (John has Eli covered) and moves in. 748k more to John, nearly all of his stack. John decides to, getting almost 2 to 1, muck faceup. Eli doesn't show.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
I was surprised by Scotty's instacall there. Did he really think John Juanda was making a move on him that early? I think it was more of a psychological tactic, baby. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on what I've read/seen of Juanda he'd try to resteal there with worse than A9s a lot of the time. I think if I had the chips Scotty did, I'd quickly call as well, both for "psychological reasons" and because I think I'd be ahead or 50/50 enough of the time to make it +EV.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the fold to John's big flop bet with the gutshot and two overcards out there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought for sure he'd c/r the flop. That would have been my line against someone as aggro as Juanda. I probably would have c/raised about 1.25 of the pot.

[Tyler Durden]

Scotty picks up JT on the button and limps in. John mucks K3 in the SB. Gabe checks w/ Q9.

90k in the pot.

985r. Gabe checks and Scotty bets 100k, Gabe quickly calls.
Turn 9. Gabe checks his trips and Scotty checks his openender.
River is an 8. Gabe bets 250k into 290k and Mike doesn't like it. Scotty folds.

[ClassicBob]

Watching Kaplan play his first two hands have been pretty painful.

[jar]

I'm no NL tournament player, but I don't like Kaplan's play at all so far. In that hand, I probably make a small bet at the pot to either get some value or get scotty to come over the top. Say 100k into the 290K pot. Does this make any sense?

[Tyler Durden]

Next hand, John has A9h on the button and raises to 90k. Gabe has 65 and folds. Eli calls w/ 96c in the BB.

Flop J83r. Eli checks and John checks behind. Turn 7, giving Eli an openender and John a flush draw and bigger openender. Eli bets 100k and is called.

River 5 and Eli makes his straight and bets 100k. John thinks about, according to Mike, raising the river w/ Ace high but mucks. Eli drags a 510k pot.

*****

SN 1.81k
EE 1.4k
JJ 966k

Those are all the chip counts I caught but Lee is the short man.

Gabe opens to 110k on the button w/ 62. Eli calls w/ KJ. Lee has 99 and the short stack in the BB and moves in. Gabe folds and Eli calls for 255k.

Eli KJ
Lee 99

Flop Q44. Ppl chant Lee's name
Turn 6.
River 8 and Lee doubles through. 865k pot.

[Easy E]

After the way he limped with the other hand holding top pair, I think he played that top pair of 9's badly. Unless there were a lot of hands between the previous limp and this one, he should have been aggressive and overbet the turn if that would suck Scotty in.

Checking as he did, there was NO chance Scotty's calling with any hand besides a big pair or an 8. I didn't like his play either.

The limps on the previous hand weren't too bad, I think, though I didn't like the weak turn call with draws out there. If he thinks the opponent will keep pushing the worst hand, it might be best, but still...

[Easy E]

Unless he's putting John on a move, I'd wait for a better spot than a gutshot.

[Easy E]

Just trying to put the hands out there, or are you going to go back and comment on them later?

[Tyler Durden]

EE 1.61
JJ
SN 1.325
GK
LW

25k/50k/5k

Folds to John in the SB and he completes w/ 43. Gabe has Q6 in the BB and checks. 125k in the pot.

Flop 982 all spades, neither player has one. John bets 50k. Gabe calls.

Turn offsuit 7. John checks and Gabe checks his openender.

River is a 7, a fourth spade. John bets 100k. Gabe folds.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless he's putting John on a move, I'd wait for a better spot than a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. But then again, what kind of flop are you looking for with 77 when you cold call a super-aggro raiser preflop?

[3rdEye]

What the crap is Gabe Kaplan doing? He makes the delayed bluff play on Juanda, then pussies out on the turn....?

[Tyler Durden]

Gabe is first and mucks 32. Eli folds Q6. Lee has AKs and raises all in for 705k. Scotty has AQ right behind him and calls.

AKc for Lee
AQ for Scotty.
Flop A98.
Turn 3.
River 7 and Lee doubles up again. He now has nearly 1.5 million.

[ClassicBob]

Kaplan is killing me!!!!

Really interesting play by Watkinson, and it worked out for him, doubling up through Scotty.

[Easy E]

I agree- pretty much a "damned either way" hand

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
Just trying to put the hands out there, or are you going to go back and comment on them later?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm honored that you would be interested in my comments. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I don't have time during the show but I may do so later. Do you care either way?

[Hold'me]

Kaplan set up the delayed bluff beautifully. Juanda gave him the green light and he just checks it back around. If he wants to play passive, then he might as well have called the 100k bet on the river with his Q high. I'm not too impressed thus far with Kaplan's play, may be a case of intimidation or he's just playing to inch up in the money before getting more aggressive.

[Easy E]

He's going to regret that "I'm going to win!" bragging.

He WAY overplayed the pair- why do that? Hoping to get called by overcards?

You got what you deserved, Scotty. Badly done

[Tyler Durden]

Scotty is UTG and moves in for 445k w/ 66. John and Gabe fold. Eli calls w/ JJ and Lee folds.

Eli JJ
Scotty 66, needing to double up.

Scotty can't get lucky and Eli drags the 965k pot.
Scotty is out in 5th for $129,509 after being the massive chipleader to start the final table.

[Easy E]

I think it might have been his plan, with 3 very aggressive players at the table.

Gabe's overdoing it, however- gut tightening up?

[Easy E]

with only 445, the push might make more sense than I first thought.

[Tyler Durden]

Scotty says he choked in his 4th WPT final table appearance.

Eli has the big lead now.

Gabe picks up AQ and raises the 50k BB to 200k. Eli folds QJ, Lee has JJ and moves in for 1.5 million. Back to Gabe and he has to call off his stack to play. Getting about 3 to 2 odds. He folds.

[Easy E]

Gabe, I'm losing any respect I had for you.... unless you were always planning on folding and are being really, really sly?

(I doubt it)

[3rdEye]

Mike S. and VVP are practically falling over themselves when someone folds AQ to a push p/f. Isn't that fairly standard when you're against a deep stack?

[Easy E]

I'm honored that you would be interested in my comments.
Are they THAT worthless?

<font color="blue">I don't have time during the show but I may do so later. Do you care either way? </font>
Seems somewhat pointless to record the hands in this way, on the fly. If you're not watching the show, you lose something in reading your blips.

Should I NOT care? I can't learn as much from the details as I might from analysis.

Very strange reply...

[3rdEye]

I'm interested to see what the posters think about Lee's call with 55. I sort of thought Juanda's "I have to do it" could have been a reverse tell.

[Tyler Durden]

Lee showed his JJ after Gabe folded.

Eli has 2.5 million and folds. Lee has 55 and raises the 50k BB to 200k. John has A9s, thinks and moves in for 640k total. Gabe folds 72 and, 1.35 in the pot, Lee calls for 440k more.

John A9spades (all in)
Lee 55

Flop T64
Turn 2
River bricks and John is out in 4th for $162,012.

Lee drags the 1.35M pot.

Three handed now.

[Easy E]

That depends- if everyone knows that's the play.... and they know that you know..


Well, we'll see how smart Gabe is or isn't playing now. Lee got a ton of help.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm honored that you would be interested in my comments.
Are they THAT worthless?

<font color="blue">I don't have time during the show but I may do so later. Do you care either way? </font>
Seems somewhat pointless to record the hands in this way, on the fly. If you're not watching the show, you lose something in reading your blips.

Should I NOT care? I can't learn as much from the details as I might from analysis.

Very strange reply...

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry about the strange reply. I just meant that if others are commenting on the hands, should I do it also?

[Hold'me]

I really liked Lee Watkinson showing his JJ after Gabe folded his AQ. His advertising is telling the rest of the table: "Look I've got quality hands when I'm coming over the top each time!" I hope he uses that to his advantage and takes a monster pot with a marginal hand. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jar]

He's trying right now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Tyler Durden]

EE 2.6M
LW 1.8M
GK 1.3M

Blinds 40k/80k/10k.
Gabe folds, Eli raises to 160k w/ J4. Lee calls w/ A4. 350k in the pot.

Flop 984 two hearts. Eli bets 250k. Lee calls w/ the best hand.
Turn offsuit 6. Eli checks and Lee bets 400k. Eli mucks.
Lee takes the 1.25M pot.

***********

Gabe has QJ and raises to 250k. Eli has A8d and flatcalls from the SB. Lee moves in w/ Q8, having both players covered. He's in for 2.4 million. Gabe mucks. Pot is 2.91 million. Eli has Lee dominated but it's all his chips! Eli thinks for a long while and mucks.

********

Lee 3.15
Eli 1.4
Gabe 1.1

Gabe has K7s and moves in for 1.1 million. Eli mucks Q7 and Lee calls w/ AT.

Lee AT
Gabe K7spades

Flop A53 one spade. 91% Lee.
Turn 8 and Gabe is drawing dead.

Gabe is out in 3rd for $256,519.

[jar]

A grown man wearing shorts on TV? wtf?

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
A grown man wearing shorts on TV? wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you say that about Mason? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Tyler Durden]

Heads up play between Lee Watkinson and Eli Elezra (a very nice guy).

Lee 4 million
Eli 1.67 million
Blinds 40k/80k/10k.

Eli is first w/ A8. He limps in. Lee checks w/ 32.

A76 two clubs.
Lee checks and Eli bets 100k. Lee calls w/ the nut low.
Turn offsuit K. Lee bets 200k. Eli moves in for 1.3 million more and Lee folds the nut low.

*******

Lee has A8/images/graemlins/spade.gif and raises to 380k. Eli has QJ and calls.

780k pot. Flop J97 one spade.
Eli moves in for 1.67 million. Lee mucks.

[Hold'me]

After playing like a rock all day, why would Gabe push with a K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif for over one million in chips? Good bye Mr. Kotter! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Tyler Durden]

Chip counts (in millions)

Lee 3.155
Eli 2.54

Lee has Q8 and limps in. Eli has AT and checks.

Flop A87 two spades. Eli checks and Lee bets 175k. Eli calls.
Turn offsuit 6. Eli checks and Lee checks behind.
River offsuit Jack. Eli bets 200k. Lee calls. 730k pot and Eli wins and takes the chip lead.

**********

Eli 3.2
Lee 2.5

60k/120k and an ante

Lee limps w/ T6s and Eli checks w/ K6. Flop K2Kr Lee checks behind.
Turn Ace. Eli checks and Lee bets 120k. Eli has trips and makes it 500k. 890k pot and Lee calls w/ Ten high.
River Ten, giving Lee a pair. Eli quickly bets 900k and Lee says "guess you got a King" and mucks.

[Tyler Durden]

Eli 3.6
Lee 2.1

60k/120k/15k

Eli limps in w/ A6 and Lee moves in w/ A9. 1.935 million to Eli. Eli lays it down.

*********

Lee has 54 spades. He limps in. Eli has AQ and makes it 500k. Lee moves in! Eli has to call 1.57 more. Eli calls.

Lee 54spades
Eli AQ
Flop KT7 one spade.
Turn offsuit T.
River bricks and Eli Elezra wins the Mirage Poker Showdown.

Lee gets $513,000.
Eli wins $1,024,000.

[Easy E]

He's going to be castigating himself for his heads-up play for a while.

Nicely done, Eli

[Tyler Durden]

Next week's episode is the Legends of Poker from the Bicycle Casino. I hope you all enjoyed the thread.

[Paluka]

Juanda was the only one who impressed me at all in this episode.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Eli 3.2
Lee 2.5

60k/120k and an ante

Lee limps w/ T6s and Eli checks w/ K6. Flop K2Kr Lee checks behind.
Turn Ace. Eli checks and Lee bets 120k. Eli has trips and makes it 500k. 890k pot and Lee calls w/ Ten high.
River Ten, giving Lee a pair. Eli quickly bets 900k and Lee says "guess you got a King" and mucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This play jumps right up to the head of the class as Top 5 Worst Ever. Lee's call of Eli's raise on the turn is inexplicable, almost as if he had a malfunction and the wrong word came out when he said "Call."

It was a bad, bad moment.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eli 3.2
Lee 2.5

60k/120k and an ante

Lee limps w/ T6s and Eli checks w/ K6. Flop K2Kr Lee checks behind.
Turn Ace. Eli checks and Lee bets 120k. Eli has trips and makes it 500k. 890k pot and Lee calls w/ Ten high.
River Ten, giving Lee a pair. Eli quickly bets 900k and Lee says "guess you got a King" and mucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This play jumps right up to the head of the class as Top 5 Worst Ever. Lee's call of Eli's raise on the turn is inexplicable, almost as if he had a malfunction and the wrong word came out when he said "Call."

It was a bad, bad moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have never screamed at my TV while watching WPT until that play tonight.

[BLACKBOAT]

Cant believe the final three. Besides Lee's bluff to push out Gabe and Eli, It was all cards.

[TransientR]

Scottie looked tired to me, and I think it showed a bit in his play.

Good season premiere; some interesting hands.

Frank

[TimTimSalabim]

I think fatigue is a factor in everybody's play. These things are getting to be marathon events.

[TransientR]

Agreed.

But Scottie looked off, especially for the tourney leader with a big chip advantage. And the other players had been at it as long, without seeming so whipped.

Frank

[zaxx19]

Scottie just called WAY too much. That A9 was atrocious...even if Juanda was on a complete play with some random garbage Nguyen doesnt have a made hand...one of the liabilities of playing A-X so liberally in NLH.


Oh yeah and there is this...

WHY RISK DOUBLING UP JOHN JUANDA ON YOUR LEFT?

[curtains]

I wouldnt call the A9s call atrocious by any means.

[zaxx19]

Ok run through the possible hands...run through total crap against A9...then change your mind.

Remember I also am taking into account meta-considerations providing the best player in the world alot of extra ammo while he sits to my left.

[curtains]

Jon Juanda may move in there with any ace and many other hands. He's very aggressive preflop. It's definitely not a terrible call.

[3rdEye]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

But Scottie looked off, especially for the tourney leader with a big chip advantage. And the other players had been at it as long, without seeming so whipped.

Frank

[/ QUOTE ]

It looked to me like Scotty was thinking, "I'm gonna be the typical chip leader bully babeee." I don't think he was tired at all. He just got picked off at the wrong time a few times.

[Sluss]

Lee's all in why not try and get some sort of reaction from him by saying your hand without "saying" your hand.

[WillMagic]

I basically agree with this...Elezra didn't really make any mistakes, but he didn't have any really tough decisions either. Scotty was off, Watkinson was mediocre, and Kaplan was atrocious.

But Juanda just continues to impress...what's noticeable is that on every single postflop decision, he thinks, takes his time...and then makes the right play.

Will

[Sluss]

Best Exit Interview Ever

[curtains]

Jon Juanda is the champion of poker.

[neon]

[ QUOTE ]
Juanda was the only one who impressed me at all in this episode.

[/ QUOTE ]

[UMTerp]

I thought Watkinson was genius until he got heads up. That squeeze play he pulled with Q8 was great. Both players had him dominated!

Was anyone else yelling at Meehan to stop and go with his jacks(?) at the beginning? I thought that was the obvious play there. His stack, Eli's stack, position, and cards were all perfect for it.

[sternroolz]

Scotty's A9 call was not necessarily wrong. I have posted this before, and I am sure that at least a few tournament pros know that one of Juanda's favorite moves is to move all in on the blinds against a raiser in late position WITH ANY TWO CARDS. He rarely gets caught and when he does, he has shown everything from 10-2 up to AA.

So Scotty knowing this, and knowing he has a huge chip stack, and knowing that Juanda knows Nguyen may be playing overaggressive on the button...whew....may have decided well in advance that he would call any push that Juanda made.

[curtains]

btw even though I said in an earlier post that A9 is not an obvious laydown by any means, I don't think Juanda is going to get too fancy here against a guy with 2.1 million chips. However I would still expect him to move in with most aces, and hands like KQ-KT and so on. I don't know this for sure though.

[Trainwreck]

I can't read this entire thread, I don't have time.

I was amazed at Lee's T6s debacle heads up, had to be the worst call, I'd seen all year except for some old lady on my own table one day.

These guys have tons of chips, wth are they playing this crap?

I've had plenty of heads up battles... I wait for better ops to blow my stacks.

&gt;TW&lt;

[duma]

nice to see that WPT is sponsored by a beer I can actually drink now (Amber Bock) instead of searching high and low for Anheiser World Select. although i dont like the fact that they toast it still in the bottle, it was classier before in those champagne style glasses. but i do understand its all about marketing. makes perfect sense on Budweiser's part because they want to be able to get a return on their sponsorship money.

[zaxx19]

I have posted this before, and I am sure that at least a few tournament pros know that one of Juanda's favorite moves is to move all in on the blinds against a raiser in late position WITH ANY TWO CARDS. He rarely gets caught and when he does, he has shown everything from 10-2 up to AA.

Exactly, and he knows the other pros know this and will call with less than premium holdings....now take it one more step....and then you are at the thought level of Juanda was in the hand.

I like him calling with almost any made hand AQ AK even AJs but a9s is just a little to easily dominated and cant crush random holdings. Just my 2 cents....

[curtains]

I'm not saying I would definitely call with A9s there, I'm just saying that to call it terrible is a bit over the top.