A tough spot w a big pretty flop

[fsuplayer]

party PL 1000

i have 1500, villian has 950.

i raise with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif, to $35 from UTG+1 after a fold.

all fold to BB who calls.

flop: K /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Check, I bet $75, villian raises the pot to $300 straight.

no read on villian. whats your play?

thanks,

fsuplayer

[fsuplayer]

provide some thoughts as well as voting if you could. I want to hear some lines and ranges of hands for villian.

[LuvDemNutz]

Well let's see - I think calling, getting a discount out of the BB he could have a wide range of hands.

QJ, TT, 99 of course

KT, KQ, KJ, AK, T9

Maybe even a lower heart draw.

I like pushing but I highly doubt you will get called unless way behind.

[Usagi_yo]

My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 /images/graemlins/heart.gif AKx, KQx, XX /images/graemlins/heart.gif ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest consideration is the dead money in the pot. Pre-flop it is $75. Next I bet $75 on the flop and get raised to $300 ... or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

The range of hands I put my opponant on are:

AA, KK, TT, 99, QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif QJx ... leaving me behind by about 60-40 on average and:

87 /images/graemlins/heart.gif AKx, KQx, XX /images/graemlins/heart.gif ... giving me the advantage.

I figure that I'm more then likely behind and with the dead money in the pot being small, and me having about 7% of my entire stack involved ... I'm going to opt to fold. The $300 raise looks committing to me. I'm not going to blow him off this pot and it will be 840 to win 990 at this point. Not the overlay I'm looking for.

A call and a fold if you miss the heart on the turn looks attractive though, but you are practicaly forced to call again if a Q, J, A, or K should fall.

[/ QUOTE ]

So this is never a bluff?

[soah]

Many of the players are so LAG that it's entirely possible that you already have the best hand here, and you have a draw to the nuts if you're behind. Your ace and king outs will also be live sometimes against hands like T9s which puts you at about even money to win. I think you have too much of a hand to fold here, but just calling sucks since you're out of position [edit: this is incorrect, but I'm too lazy to fix it]. Your opponent may be semi-bluffing with 87s and take a free card on the turn, if you spike a king you may not win anymore against T9s, etc. So I voted to push. Pushing also puts a lot of pressure on your opponent if they happen to also have AK -- they either fold their half of a split pot, or you get your money in while freerolling. Also pushing has some meta-game value if it causes some of your opponents to misjudge you/perceive you as being too aggressive with one pair hands.

I do think the decision is close though, and I'm interested in what other people have to say.

[Usagi_yo]

Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent. At this point, your basicaly fighting over $340 in strange money and you'll have to put in another $840 to realize that.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course it can be a bluff. Original poster specified no read on opponant. Barring any other information, I'm going to assume my opponant is competent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoa whoa whoa he said this was a partypoker hand...!

[Usagi_yo]

If that's the case, then you opponant has 6s6h and the turn and river are sure to be 8h 7h

[DOTTT]

I think this is an easy push. Too many cards can kill your action on the turn. If you call and fail to improve you're going to really be in a tough spot facing a big bet with top pair (which might be good BTW). If this is 6 handed then I think villain can have a lot of hands. KQ,KT,T9,TT,99,89,JQ. Your only a big dog to a set, but I think this is a spot where you just have to be willing to take it down right now, or what the hell gamble.

[fsuplayer]

this was a full game DOTT, I forgot to mention that.

[Mad Genius1]

Let's examine the situation for a minute.

First of all, giving BB the benefit of the doubt I don't think he will call a raise OOP with QJ. So what is his range of hands here? The 3 most likely hands are to be AK, TT, and 99, with an outside chance of AA and KK. If he has a set you are more than a 2-1 dog. If he has AK you are obviously in great shape but I don't think he would opt to go for the check-raise with just TPTK on a board like that. If he has you beat then you are pretty much drawing to a flush and he could have re-draws. I know it's tough but I think you have to fold here, getting incorrect odds to draw to the flush. Also keep in mind that if he has a set and a heart drops on the turn after you call, he could easily put you on your exact hand and fold his set.

[fsuplayer]

QJ is less likely, but there are more combos of it, and most okay playing NL players wont fold QJs here, well some wont anyways, and since i dont have a read, I wouldnt completely disregard that as a possibility.

[Mad Genius1]

Well if we add QJ to the range of his holdings doesn't that only strengthen the argument for folding? QJ leaves you with 8 or 9 outs depending on if he has a heart.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

Sorry, but against a player who's put in a third of his stack on a check-raise against a UTG+1 raise on a K high board, I assume two pair at worse-call and get your stack in if you hit an ace or a flush on the turn. Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs, and if you don't hit two pair or a flush muck the turn.

[Kripke]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, I might be a bit slow. How does Hero have 13 outs against a set or a straight?

- Kripke

[dangerous_badman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has a set or straight you'll have 13 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, I might be a bit slow. How does Hero have 13 outs against a set or a straight?

- Kripke

[/ QUOTE ]

If as the above poster described Hero hits an A on the turn, he now has two A outs, two K outs, and the remaining nine heart outs against the set. I think that's what he was getting at.

[fsuplayer]

well the poll is overwhelmingly in favor of a reraise all in, yet the responses (which have been good, ty) are more split in their decision.

hopefully Jason, turnip, bruiser and a couple of others can give their thoughts.

thanks so far.

fsuplayer

[theBruiser500]

do you have any folding equity on a raise all in? i don't think so, except maybe against a specific player you do. they seem pretty strong to me, i'd acll the flop hope to hit something, and then play for stacks. if no hit on the turn then fold and save yourself some money by not going all in on the flop. if there is doubt though and he might fold to an all in or maybe be doing something crazy with a pair and a straight draw then all in flop. my guess is that if you go all in on flop then youa re getting all your money in with worst of it.

[phifediggy]

i call for the same reasons. i would check the turn no matter what comes -- if you hit the heart or an ace, you can checkraise all-in.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
i call for the same reasons. i would check the turn no matter what comes -- if you hit the heart or an ace, you can checkraise all-in

[/ QUOTE ]

I act last.

[phifediggy]

good point. d'oh. if the turn blanks you have to fold, but if a heart or an ace falls, bet or raise. i'd put your opponent on 2 pair or a big draw of some sort. his raise seems to be a "get out of here" raise rather than a "call my nuts" raise.

[Usagi_yo]

You've convinced me that a call/fold line on the turn is probably best. Added benefit is that a cold call with position might give the villian cold feet on pulling the trigger again and they may chicken out on any move they were planning, or mistakingly think they can get a double play from you, or induce a call on the river by being too tricky on the turn -- giving you of course a very very dangerous free river card.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
or $225 more making the pot size $375 with me to call $225 and a payoff of $615.

[/ QUOTE ]


your math is off. my original post was off $10 pf, but the pot is more like $85 preflop, my $75 plus his call=$235. then he raises whats in the pot, making the pot $470, with $235 left to call, and he has like $600 left to bet.

assuming i call and hit a flush and take his stack, i have flop pot odds of 4.55 to 1, but sometimes I wont take his whole stack, and sometimes another A or K may be good as well. there is also a (small) chance he checks the turn after my flat call.

I think those cancel eachother out though, and I do have reasonable odds to see a turn card.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You've convinced me that a call/fold line on the turn is probably best.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was 5 mins too late with my (not-so) fancy math. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[imperious]

Any results for this one?

[Paluka]

I seriously must be terrible at PLHE, because I cannot imagine why you would not put all your money in on this flop.

[DOTTT]

I rather fold on the flop, then call the flop bet and fold on the turn.

[etizzle]

what range do you put villain on?

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
what range do you put villain on?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like he could make this play with a wide range of hands. If people play AhKh this passively on this flop, he is probably correct to make this play with every hand. Seems like you can make a lot of money at PLHE if nobody every calls you unless they have a set.

[cwl]

i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

[turnipmonster]

on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

--turnipmonster

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
i would push and wouldnt really give it a second thought. your hand is pretty good across the entire range of made hands, semi-bluffs, bluffs that an opponent can have here. granted, your opponent will have you beat a reasonable amount of the time but you have some outs when he does and i think he will have something else enough to make it worth playing. i dont like calling and planning to fold the turn at all cause a big part of the value of your hand is that its sometimes best. if you call you put yourself in a spot where its just much to easy to make a wrong decision later on. im struggling a bit to come up with a better justification but i think what it comes down to is that your really only in bad shape against a pretty narrow range of hands and my experience is that most peoples range of hands isnt that narrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with every word of this post.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.

to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.

another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know your stuff. Thank you.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
hero has 12 outs to the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

i have 12-14 outs to beat two pair, but only 9 outs to the nuts.

so the math does come a little closer.

[Paluka]

How often do people think we are ahead on the flop? The answer certainly isn't zero.

[Yeti]

Personally I'd imagine you are ahead about 30-35% of the time.

[turnipmonster]

sorry my mistake. I counted a gutshot for unknown reasons. probably not too far off if aces and kings are partial outs though.

[Hans Gruber]

I'm in favor of calling the flop here, simply because I don't believe there is any fold equity in an all-in. The only way he's folding with this much money already in the pot is if he is bluffing.

There's a chance the guy has a set, in which case you probably have the implied odds to draw to your flush. However, in response to the posts above about waiting for an ace, an ace could be the worst possible card for you. If he has a set, and you hit your trips aces on the turn, you're meat.

I call, and muck the turn if I miss my flush.

[Hans Gruber]

Correction: I thought the flop brought an ace. Disregard my comment about the trips aces.

[etizzle]

so you think a push will get a call by a weaker hand?
Or is fsu semibluffing all his chips to the middle if he pushes?

I agree there is a decent chance fsu is ahead here, but if he is I would rather see him checkraise all in on a good turn card then push it all in here on the flop. I dont think any better hands are folding and I think all the ones that have him beat will call fairly quickly.

Again, I just dont see KQ or JT or any of those hands calling all in here. The only hand that he can realistically be beating if he gets called would be Jh8h.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
so you think a push will get a call by a weaker hand?
Or is fsu semibluffing all his chips to the middle if he pushes?


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with just calling the flop bet is that if we are ahead on the flop a decent portion of the time, we will now be making improper turn folds way too often.

[etizzle]

well like i said if the turn is <9 then part of flat calling the flop may be checkraising it all in on the turn.

sometimes.


and sometimes (rarely) pushing a Q or J as well.

[ZeeJustin]

Big hand, great flop. I'm certainly looking to get all my chips in the middle on this flop.

[legend42]

Interesting hand, and one that's easy to both overthink and underthink (as witnessed by the replies).

Did you consider checking behind on the flop? There aren't too many scare cards for you, it keeps the pot small, might disguise your hand, and gets you to the river for only $75.

This may be hindsight thinking (and sure, it could bite you if the guy hits a free gutshot or underset on the turn) but if I'm going to lay down TPTK + nut flush draw to a flop check-raise by an unknown party blind defender, then I'd prefer to take this cheaper line.

[ObnxNole]

Big flop Mikey. I he has a set or straight then oh well. Put all the chips in the middle and don't feel bad about it. It's that simple.

[fsuplayer]

I posted this hand not bc of the results, but bc its not often the timer almost runs out on me, but it nearly did this time.

i resisted the autoraise urge i get when I have TP and a flush draw and thought for a second. I went from almost folding, to almost calling, to then thinking that i really didnt want call and then fold a blank turn. (at the time i didnt realize the math was that close).

so i reraise pot, he thinks for a sec. and rereraises pot /images/graemlins/confused.gif sh!t...I call.

turn: blank

river:K /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

but his 99 was more than good.

thanks for all the good responses guys,

gl at the tables,


fsuplayer

[eoinak]

Here goes, my two cents.

For me this is never a fold for one, only hellmuth would consider this a fold and he thinks everyones got aces if they raise his kk pre flop.

As regards the raise, this is an easy play if you have any idea what kind of player your against, i.e. a tight solid player will make this play with a set or two pair to reduce drawing odds, but if your against a aggro guy then the raise is too much for a set as he doesnt want to lose your action etc. As you said no read at all makes it tough.

I voted for the push, the main reasons being; and yes i believe it has allready been covered in previous posts but what the hey:
1) as allready mentioned I wont fold this flop
2) so if i am going to call the 225 and i miss the turn, he will push, at that point i do have to fold
3) if i call the 225 and hit the heart on the turn if i am playing a solid player i now dont get the rest of his chips as my hand is probably transparent.

As a sidenote i believe that qj is probably unlikely, if i had qj in villains spot i will probably smooth call the flop bet and either cr or bet a non heart turn. The hand i would be expecting from villain with no other info, from the way it has played is a flush draw with str8 possibillities of some kind.

[eoinak]

missed fsu's last post

[VanVeen]

Good post. If you're not willing to put all your chips in the middle on this flop, don't bet - check. If you are, bet. When you should do one or the other is player dependent (is he capable of bluffing/semi-bluffing? what kind of hands is he willing to payoff with? etc.). After you've bet the flop you cannot fold with as much equity as you have vs. his probable range of hands, and just calling (as Paluka pointed out) is going to allow you to make a more costly error on the next street if you don't improve.

[Usagi_yo]

Betting the flop is correct. You're basing your line on the subsequent checkraise. An after the fact event. On the flop, you are betting the King, you have the flush backup. Had our opponant raised less, a call becomes more and more obvious. If our opponant merely raised $75 from the $75 bet, the call is automatic.

[VanVeen]

Betting shouldn't be "automatic" - you bet for a reason.

"You're basing your line on the subsequent checkraise"

Hm, I didn't suggest a 'line', per se. I said if you choose to do A, you should do X; if, for whatever reason, you do not think A is optimal, choose B and go from there. Contingency plan good.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're not willing to put all your chips in the middle on this flop, don't bet

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a retarded statement.

[Usagi_yo]

Well, the point being is I disagree with your premise that he should have checked the flop because he couldn't withstand the big raise. At the risk of belaboring the point, we bet the flop in this instance because we can honestly believe we are ahead, and we will obtain information from the resultant action from our opponant.

[VanVeen]

Yes it is. There are plenty of other reasons to bet and that was horribly worded.

[theBruiser500]

to everyone who his keen on getting it all in on the flop and think your hand is good a lot of the time... look at this action again and tell me what hands you are ahead of here against a reasonable player? granted you have a huge draw so i don't think getting it all in on the flop is bad but i don't think it's optimal, rather than racing it put a little money in on the flop and then fold the turn if you're beat and get most of the money in if you're ahead that is good poker. and if you think the opponent is bluffing, though i don't see how he could be on this board with that action and his bet size, why take away your positional advantage and go all in on flop? play aturn i say

[legend42]

I don't think betting the flop is wrong. And you're right that I conceived the idea to check the flop looking back at the action. But it does have some merit.

If he had AK without the flush draw on that board, I'd definitely say pot it. But when you have 9 outs to the nuts with two cards to come, I like to give that draw a chance to find its way home. And if a $75 value bet is going to open me up to getting blown off it- especially by an unknown Party player who could be making this move with KQ/KJ (top pair+gutshot)- then I prefer to play a smaller pot, see a free turn, and go from there.

Plus, villain might bluff the turn with a hand he would have dumped on the flop.

[Usagi_yo]

Agreed then. Particularly devistating when you can put your opponant on the same flush draw you are.

[cwl]

he could have a K, a pair + straight draw, open ended on the low side, or a lower flush draw or sometimes just an outright bluff. i disagree with the call the flop then make a good decision on the turn line because i recognize that a lot of the time i will make a bad decision. if i call the flop i am gonna make a wrong decision on the turn a lot. some will be bad calls, some will be bad folds but there will be a lot of bad. sometimes tough decisions are inevitable but i think its a bad idea to create them for yourself when you have a perfectly good alternative.

[KaneKungFu123]

push to trap a drawing player or to maybe fold AK...

[mb2696]

so how did it play out?

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
so how did it play out?

[/ QUOTE ]

The results are somewhere in the thread. It all went in on the flop, and villain's set of 9s held up.