Top two vs. paired turn and a raise; who calls this down?

[edge]

Villian is loose preflop and kind of dumb postflop, but I don't remember the specifics of his dumbness postflop. Anyway, loose preflop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($430.4)
SB ($453)
Hero ($542.6)
UTG ($340.4)
MP ($285.1)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $2. UTG posts a blind of $6.
UTG (poster) checks, MP calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($16) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, UTG calls $12, MP calls $12.

Turn: ($52) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $35</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $70</font>, Hero calls $35.

River: ($192) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP calls $199.10 (All-In), Hero calls $199.10.

Final Pot: $590.20

[PoBoy321]

You're behind QQ, KK, AA, J5, 56, JJ, 66 and 55. Given the pre-flop and flop action, I only see you behind 66 and the unlikely 55 (probably even less likely given the turn raise) so I don't mind calling down here. Given your read on villain, I would expect to see AJo most of the time.

[kurto]

I think you're beat. Clearly the guy can be bluffing... but in absence of any real feel for the guy... he played it like many play a set.

I know you said he's dumb... but if you're (1) possibly underestimating him and/or (2) accept that dumb players get good hands.

Based on the turn play... I'd guess he either had a 5 or he just made a full house.

If he's an idiot, I could still see him playing an overpair this way... in which case the pair of 5s counterfitted your 2 pair.

Unfortunately... one would really need to know the specifics of his dumbness to say with any certainty.

How'd it turn out?

[tbach24]

I like it. He doesn't have an overpair (lack of PF raise) and probably has something like QJ or JT. I see very low possibility of a set (only 3 combinations of them all total).

[kurto]

"I like it. He doesn't have an overpair (lack of PF raise) and probably has something like QJ or JT." If you are right... then he truly is dumb. I have trouble seeing someone push it with top pair Q or T kicker, after being shown strenght elsewhere. If you're right, his opponent is worse then the people at the tables I play ($25 NL).

"I see very low possibility of a set (only 3 combinations of them all total)." That's very dangerous thinking. Everytime someone flops a set, there are one 3 combinations total.

This was a limped pot... there's no reason to rule out that the player has a 5.

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
"I like it. He doesn't have an overpair (lack of PF raise) and probably has something like QJ or JT." If you are right... then he truly is dumb. I have trouble seeing someone push it with top pair Q or T kicker, after being shown strenght elsewhere. If you're right, his opponent is worse then the people at the tables I play ($25 NL).

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen a lot of stuff like that when I've played PS NL25.

[ QUOTE ]
"I see very low possibility of a set (only 3 combinations of them all total)." That's very dangerous thinking. Everytime someone flops a set, there are one 3 combinations total.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two hands I see beating us here. 55 and 66. 56 raises that flop. JJ raises PF. I see a lot of hands we beat though. QJ, JT, KJ, AJ, even J9. People love overplaying TP. I think when OP says he hasn't seen anything reckless (sp?) from villain it means that he hasn't seen him push all-in with bottom pair. There are times I strongly consider a set as a hand for an opponent, and there are times I only keep it as a slim possibility. This is a time where I feel it is a slim possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
This was a limped pot... there's no reason to rule out that the player has a 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but there is reason to believe that he won't have one now. 56 would've raised the flop. All others fold.

As a side note, I'm going to guess that I'm wrong anyways. I still think that I'm right though.

[edge]

I thought to myself, "Well, no way he has a 5 here, right? The only possible hands with a 5 would be J5 and 65, which may raise the flop. I could be behind a set, I suppose, but he would need the two case 5s, 6s, or Js."

Too bad I didn't account for A5. I guess that's what I meant when I said kind of dumb postflop, although I suppose he got odds to call on the flop considering he stacked me. I definitely think it was the right play to call down though.

[neuroman]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought to myself, "Well, no way he has a 5 here, right? The only possible hands with a 5 would be J5 and 65, which may raise the flop. I could be behind a set, I suppose, but he would need the two case 5s, 6s, or Js."

Too bad I didn't account for A5. I guess that's what I meant when I said kind of dumb postflop, although I suppose he got odds to call on the flop considering he stacked me. I definitely think it was the right play to call down though.

[/ QUOTE ]
A5 is exactly the hand I to be concerned about if playing with a moron like this guy. Some people will play any ace, and those same people will call a flop bet because they got a piece of it with middle or bottom pair.