Late in a tourney: The fine line between Patience and Panic

[SoBeDude]

We've discussed here several times, the need to take 'desperate measures' when your stack starts to get weak against the size of the blinds. When your stack gets very short, say, less than 3x-5x the big blind, its a time to start pushing at any opportunity.

But lets talk about in the money; online; when blinds are huge; and you're short.

Let's also say you're ONLY playing for the top 3 spots. Do the same rules apply? Start pushing because u need to build a stack or go watch TV.

I'm going to start by saying I don't think so.

What got me thinking about this was I was on the phone with a good friend of mine while he played a final table last night. Now he and I don't always agree on what is the right play. Throughout the final 2 tables there were several opportunities where I really thought it was a spot to put his chips in that he passed on. He even folded ATo when 4-handed and the guy in front of him pushed.

He got himself down so short at the final, that when he finally did shove, the BB was getting 3.34 to 1 pot odds to make the call. BB hated to call with J2o, but he just couldn't lay it down (it is quite clearly correct for him to call here). My friend had waited a long time and finally found a hand, AQs. it held up against the J2o and he doubled up.

But there is a key point in here. Many players would have laid down the J2o regardless of those pot odds. The problem is, that while the call might be mathmatically correct, the loss of those chips to the BB is still critical when the blinds get this big. In fact, within 2 or 3 hands of the above play, one of the other players laid down the big blind getting similar pot odds.

My friend went on to win the tourney.

He was clearly more patient than I would have been with his short-stack. he was ranked at or near the bottom almost the entire time of the final 2 tables, until it got to like 4-handed.

And this is exactly how I won the 100K tourney on Paraidise a few weeks back. I was short from 50 players left until 4 players left. I was in survival mode the whole way. Last place with 50, last place with 30, still last with 20, and 10th place at the final table. but I went on to win. And I folded at the final until I literally had only enough chips left to call the big blind. Fortunately 2 people limped and I quadrupled up with KJ. THEN I got aggressive /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But I think I was proably too passive and should've taken a shot at something earlier than I did. I think that in hindsight, I should have been more aggressive than I was, taken a few chances earlier. But I might have busted out and not won 30K either.

So back to my friend last night.

I would have had him putting his chips in several times where he choose not to. And this got me to thinking. Where and when should you turn down that aggressiveness? Have I held my aggressiveness too late in the tourney? Should I shift down and scale it back when in the money, and more carefully pick my spots? When the blinds are huge, you really only need to win one or two hands late to get a healthy stack. Given the blinds sizes, I think stack sizes matter less when at the final table, so should survival to the final at all costs be the overriding concern?

Clearly at the final table, you're opponents are playing differently. They tend to be better, and aren't going to let you steal very much. But some are in 'survival' mode, with eyes locked on what moving up one more place in the money will bring them in cash, and they will tend to fold more. And each pot is huge, so you don't need to win many.

So I'm not sure where to draw that line. My friend clearly took a MUCH less aggressive line with his short stack than I would have. And he won. That doesn't mean his approach is correct, but it sure may be.

Thoughts appreciated.

-Scott

[jackdaniels]

I think in some ways you answered your own question here with the following statement:

"But some are in 'survival' mode, with eyes locked on what moving up one more place in the money will bring them in cash, and they will tend to fold more. And each pot is huge, so you don't need to win many."

Since you don't need to win huge pots to maintain your stack, I would say that at this point in the tourney you need to identify the "weak links" at the table and pick on them. Mind you, they can wake up with a hand and decide to gamble or alternatively, you may wake up with a hand and take a shot at someone who will likely call you.

Either way, at this point it is more important to play the other players.

I hope some of the wiser and more experienced posters give their opinion on this one as well.

[hurlyburly]

I think there's some merit to that line of thinking.

Satellites are a great example of this especially, long before it gets down to the bubble, the only showdowns you see are between monsters.

For some reason I fall into the trap of cranking up my aggression when I have 20xBB, and thoughts of the blinds start messing with my head. Somehow the hands that should look even worse look better, or I play pots out of position (or any 2 with position).

Thanks for this post, I think you helped me fill a leak.

[A_PLUS]

great post.

This is definitely a problem I have been dealing with lately. I think I get into the "any ace or suited King" push mode too quickly as well. But, there is definitely a fine line.

My problem tends to be obsessing over preserving my stack. I will panic if I dont steal the blinds+antes at least once every round, and make some mistakes trying. It is the mirror opposite of how I played when I started and was happy to fold into the money waiting for AK. I was reading though some old Fossilman posts, and came across a gem.

Basically he talked about knowing a profitable steal situation before you even get your cards. Being aware of who defends their blinds and who is acting behind you.

Raising a 7-2 against 3 players who will only call you with AJ or better, is safer and more profitable than waiting until you have to push AQ against a J2 which you know will call.

[Elaboration]

Scott,

Good post. FWIW, every tourney that I reached the final table consisted of some point where I was down to just a few (sometimes 1.5) BB. I have to remind myself of this when I find myself wanting to throw caution to the wind on a shorty stack.

I think this is especially true once you are in the money online. Most players are under pressure from the blinds and people are busting out left and right. This coupled with one or two timely hands. Patience pays off.

I dont advocate sitting back and waiting for monsters, but you have to be selective about who you are pushing against and what pushes you might be calling.

Regards,
E

[ZeroMan]

i have had the same problem. i think that pushing everyhand (almost) with Kx and Ax is just silly, esp in UTG+1 then again in UTG. this is what the big stacks want you to do, and often they will be calling with marginal hands, and beat you. why leave it all up to luck? i think if unless your extremely shorted then you cant do much.
If you manage to take down the blinds then great! you have bought yourself some time. dont auto push the next hand just because its better than the one you just stole with (ie Ax and your now UTG). use the time youve bought and push with a better hand, chances are the big stackers will call with a lesser hand.
i also agree that if there are weak players that are also shorted, then yes you gotta manipulate them. if they are to your left... great. one thing though if they are really shorted you cant do much because they will probably call your allin with anything, so if this is the case (you gotta have a feel for them) then you shouldnt push with 27 off.
good posts, from recent experience being an auto pusher is not going to get you far.

[Go Blue]

This is a good topic. Although I am mainly a limit cash game player now, I do enter tournies occassionally. However, whether it's a 20-30 person live tournament or a huge online one, I always have the same problem in that I can NOT play with a stack that is average or bigger. Most of the tornaments I have done well in were those where I was relatively short stacked and gained chips by strategically going all in and such at the right times. I can then play well with a medium or big stack when it's down to a few people. However, when it's quite some time to the money line and I have a good amont of chips, I can NOT do well. Why? I am not sure, but I think it's due to me tightening up way too much. I think I do this because I want to preserve my chip lead and not give people the chance to double up off me. As a result I play LESS hands than I would if short stacked. Hence, many times when I raise with something good I won't win a lot, unless it's a reraise. this goes on for a while and next thing I know, more people are eliminated, people's stacks are increasing, and my stack isn't so powerful anymore. As ridiculous as this sounds, I usually do worse overall having an relatively early chip lead than not having one. What can I do to improve this? I think this is by far the weakest part of my game and if I improved it, I could be making a lot more final tables.

[CardSharpCook]

Scott, I love your post. I have a friend you sounds much like your friend. He is often in the back of the pack, I'll watch him make laydowns when I would push, I watch him fold PF where I would go AI, yet we are still both damn good MTTers.

Some thoughts:
You should never be in "panic" mode. Even as that BB creeps toward you and you don't have enough to pay it, fold, fold, fold, and wait for a hand that is better than "any 2". If you have to, you'll gamble with NE2 in the BB.

If you just have a little more (or less) than a BB, you are going to a flop. Doubling up means getting enough chips to pay the SB and BB this time. Why not just wait until you are the BB? That way you only gamble once.

If you don't have enough chips to compete for a top spot, why not just wait a few hands for someone to bust out so you get a few extra dollars?

Ace-anything is not a good hand. It is liable to be called by an ace-not-anything. King-anything may be even worse.

Be willing to accept any offer of a coin flip when you are down low. The best is when a larger stack pulls the trigger thus protecting the pot, your 44 may be a 52/48 favorite... maybe you should call?

A winning limit player finds a playable hand once every 8 hands. Can you wait eight hands? I think you can....

The best thing about being short-stacked is that it takes care of those pesky post-flop problems like not hitting the flop or staring at a scary board.

Don't go looking to give your money away, it took you a long time to get here, you aren't ready to leave yet.

You can limp along from double up to double up and be dragged into the money if you get lucky once every half hour. Tourneys don't last that long, you don't have to get lucky that many times.

Finally: Patience is a virtue

CSC

[Kronon]

I think the most important thing when you are shortstack is taking position into consideration. I prefer to be first opener in late position with any hand, than to open the pot with AQ under the gun (I wont fold AQ though).

In late position, I usually push any ace, any pair, any 2 cards over 10. Even small suited connectors sometimes.

When I do push, I want the SB or BB to call, but I dont mind if they fold.

Since my opening requirements are pretty low in late position, my openings becomes a mix between normal opening and pure blind steals. In other words, I dont do much pure steals (although they happen).

My best comeback was when I was down to 1 BB with 25 people left, and I finished 5 (got kicked out when I had AA vs AK and flop was KK4).

[A_PLUS]

I agree to an extent, but I would NEVER lay down Ax UG, with just enough to cover the SB+BB. It is just a bad move. Ax is a favorite against the average hand, which is what you are playing if you fold. Also, the lack of position hurts, but you are protected against the 1st 2 or 3 players, b/c they dont want to call and risk a reraise with more players acting behind them.

That is also just preference. I would rather get busted on the bubble 6X and make it to the final table with a good chips size 1X. Patience is definitely a virtue, and I probably overdo it, but lets not get carried away.

[youngin20]

While its true that Ax is a favorite against a random hand, it is probably weaker than one of the other 9 hands out there. So... i fold it a lot more than you think. I also love pushing with Ace big, geting called by Ace little and busting out. its probably the worst feeling ever.

[suited_ace]

Very good post, Scott. I'm adding some thoughts to it:

1. You need to consider what stage of the tournament you're in. It's one thing to be short-stacked at the final table, while being short-stacked when there's 1/3 of the field left is a whole different thing and so on... My hand and situation requirements for a push if I'm short in the early stages are way looser than those for the late rounds. If I double my stack in the middle rounds, this won't guarantee myself the final table. When you're down to the last 2 or 3 tables, doubling can make a great difference in your final position.

2. I see a lot of players watching only their cards and disregarding all other information they have. If I'm in LP with AQs and there's a raise and a re-raise to me, I'm folding 9 times out of 10.

3. Do not start second-guessing yourself while you're still playing. If you have a chip and a chair, so be it. Accept the fact and play accordingly.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Very good post, Scott. I'm adding some thoughts to it:

1. You need to consider what stage of the tournament you're in. It's one thing to be short-stacked at the final table, while being short-stacked when there's 1/3 of the field left is a whole different thing and so on... My hand and situation requirements for a push if I'm short in the early stages are way looser than those for the late rounds. If I double my stack in the middle rounds, this won't guarantee myself the final table. When you're down to the last 2 or 3 tables, doubling can make a great difference in your final position.

2. I see a lot of players watching only their cards and disregarding all other information they have. If I'm in LP with AQs and there's a raise and a re-raise to me, I'm folding 9 times out of 10.

3. Do not start second-guessing yourself while you're still playing. If you have a chip and a chair, so be it. Accept the fact and play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey suited,

1. I specifically mentioned in the title that I'm discussing late in a tourney. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

2. Any decent player must be what I call 'situationally aware'. Knowing when KJo is a reraise, and knowing then AQs is a fold is exactly that.

3. I leave my second guessing for this forum, after the tourney is over (regardless of results).

-Scott