re: Fossilman's post about seeking backers

I recently got a phone call from a friend who made me aware of the recent post by Greg Raymer (Fossilman) regarding his seeking backers for the upcoming WPF at Foxwoods. Having not been visiting TwoPlusTwo.com for a while I had missed it. After reading it I felt the need to play Devil’s Advocate as Greg, and most of you who know me, know that I do very often when Greg posts.

I know Greg very well from playing with him in live and tournament NL Holdem. I respect Greg very much for his poker knowledge and skill. I know that he is one of the very best poker theorists that post here. That being said, I am going to take Greg’s statement of “Sorry, if some of you feels that this is not the appropriate place to post this kind of solicitation (paraphrasing) and play the role of Devil’s Advocate once more.

I don’t necessarily think that this kind of post is not appropriate. I think that Greg is a solid poker player, at his best in short or final table NL games. But if I were either in Greg’s shoes or thinking about backing Greg, I think that some very important information is being omitted.

Greg has offered what can be considered a very reasonable proposal financially speaking. But nothing was said about Greg’s track record or expectations. Those who have never played against Greg know him only from his frequent posts here that are full of excellent poker theory and advice. But knowing the game and performing well are two VERY different things.

I watched Greg start building his bankroll from a good run in the Tuesday Night NL Holdem event at Foxwoods (much the same as I did). From there he played live games and then hit a big one I believe during the NEPC or possibly last year’s WPF. From there he went into live higher stakes games and made a few quick kills in the H.O.E. $50-$100 and up. I witnessed one of these outings where in just a matter of a few minutes Greg cleared over $10,000 in I think it was a $75-$150 H.O.E. game. Admittedly, by Greg, that he got hit in the head with the deck. From there he went into a live NL game, with Moi, where he made a profit but only by killing 1 guy with a huge bankroll and pocket AA against Greg’s Q,9. Prior to that hand Greg was down considerably.

Now please don’t get me wrong… I am not trying to trash Greg’s game. But I think it’s very important to any potential investors to ask “What are your most recent stats?” Greg keeps meticulous records and can certainly provide this info. I only know what I have observed. And I grant you this is a very subjective appraisal since I haven’t seen any real figures. But from what I have witnessed Greg had a strong run for a short period in Tourney play followed by a short but incredibly profitable run in high stakes limited play.
Since that time Greg has gone to the WSOP and run bad, or performed poorly and since has played at Foxwoods and Mohegan and not done well. As a dealer at Mohegan I have seen a few of Greg’s results in the $50-$100 H.O.E. I don’t think Greg will be able to show any good numbers from there.

So as an interested spectator, perhaps even a prospective investor, I’d like to know more. Are you simply running bad? Or did you have a better than average run at the tables for a while? What is your track record overall in the NL Tuesday Night event? What do you plan on playing with the money and what is your expectation in dollar amounts based on actual past performance?

I, too, have a very limited bankroll right now, due primarily to having spent most of it while my wife has been ill and thereby not being able to play very often.. I have a proven track record of consistent wins in live games and Tourneys over 28 years. But if I were to solicit funds in this way I would feel it mandatory for my investors that they see actual figures based on long-term results.

In closing, I think that Greg would probably make a profit for his investors, especially considering he would play at his best level with so many people counting on him. But I would never solicit funds in this way without providing specific proof of past performance. (I don’t like backers anyway, as I feel bad if I lose and cheated out of my money if I win and then have to share the profits for my work).

Good luck to you Greg, and all those who choose to invest in your expertise. May you have another successful season. But to those investors, I hope you put your money on a proven winner based on facts, not just reputation.

[HDPM]

This may be a bit off the topic, but I don't like how you post results you observed as a dealer. I don't like it when Razzo does it. I don't like some of Linda G's comments on her website. I think a lot of what you say is fair game given what Fossilman posted, whether people happen to agree with it or not. A lot of this you observed as a player. But I think it's indiscreet for a dealer to post results observed in the box. Personally, I don't post people's specific results in live games that I observe. I don't want to see mine posted by others, be they good or bad. Specific hands we talk about sure, but saying "Joe won 10K this month" is inappropriate IMO.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

OK, you devil, which one is it? Proven long-term records or short-term results from one session? You state that it's the long term records that count, but you go on to cite a small handful of isolated events.

Sure, I won a huge pot with Q9s vs. AA. And yes, I was down for that session before that hand. But what's the point? Those two facts by themselves don't teach us anything about my expectation, yet you cite them as if they mean something.

You also state that you've seen me in a couple of losing sessions in the 50-100 game at Mohegan. And that's very true. But again, what's the point? I certainly never claimed that I don't have losing sessions, and since a couple of session by themselves aren't enough data to draw a conclusion, why do you mention them?

I told my potential backers in my initial post that I lost about $30K at the WSOP, and thereafter had about 15K in my bankroll. I also admitted that I hadn't made up any ground since then in growing my bankroll. In fact, at the time of my original post, I was probably down about $2K since coming home from the WSOP. I'm now up about $4K since that post. I forget if I mentioned it or not, but after the WSOP I was still ahead for the year, but only by about $2K.

To answer your questions, I do feel like I've been running rather badly since the WSOP (and certainly including the WSOP, ugh). I could be wrong, of course, but I don't think so. Even last Friday night, when I made $200 in the 20-40 holdem game at Mohegan, I lost pretty much every big pot I competed in. When I was ahead, they made their draw. When I had a quality draw, I missed. That's the way poker goes sometimes. However, it does feel like I'm not winning my "fair share" of the big pots for the last few months. While I'm always looking for ways to improve, and I'm always seeing in the mirror mistakes that I made, I still feel that I'm playing a very strong +EV game.

Maybe you can sweat me sometime at Foxwoods and provide your feedback. However, if it's the PL game, I doubt you'll approve of how I play many of my hands. The whole point of how I played before that Q9 hand was to set Speedy Pete up to pay me off. Well, not the whole point, but a large portion of it. After that hand, many people commented on how stupid he was to call my raise on the turn and my river bet. I disagree. Given my play that night, and my prior history with him, he was perfectly right to believe there was a very good chance I was bluffing (or at least mistakenly value-betting top pair). The only way he correctly folds that hand is if he can see through me, to "read" me as not bluffing that time. And that's hard to do well against almost any opponent. With me, I hope it's even harder.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[drewjustdrew]

I don't know any of you people, but I have read greg's initial posts. He does not seem to be trying to mislead anyone into thinking this is a safe investment. He has laid out many of the potential drawbacks so that people can enter the agreement with their eyes open.

I will not be sending Greg my money, since he is a stranger to me, but I'm sure his performance can beat what Ericsson Telephone has done for me in the last year.

[MS Sunshine]

Hello Glenn

I'm sorry about your wife's health, it explains the drop off in posts on 2+2 from you, more the pity. On this topic, I disagree with parts of your concerns about Greg asking for backing here. I think he did go into depth about his needs and the reasons for them. I wouldn't know Greg by sight if I ran into him, literally, but the same could be said for you, who I also have a great deal of respect for.

Even though I don't know the Greg by the outside package, what's inside I believe I could recognize. He seems to know his way around the games he plays. He's confident about how to play different hands in different situations. Is he right all the time? I don't know, but from his posts I trust his judgement more than I trust my own.

My online playing bankroll is about $4000, it turns over about every 30 days. I see players with their "double your bankroll, double the stacks you're playing, double your win" strategies on these forums, all the time. They are 99% bullshit. IMO. You learn the game niche, you are in. You learn the players. You look about for a more profitable niche. You test the waters. You move forward if you win and backward if you lose.

I see this in Greg. Someone that wants to win and knows how to go about it. Is the deal better for Greg or for his backers? I don't know. Since Greg has better info than I, I hope, then it is most likely in his favor. I like the 4 month period of time, it means we get what is expected. I like taking a piece of a winning player over time.

MS Sunshine

[Mark Heide]

Glen,

Greg is an excellent poker player. There are no doubts about it. Giving Greg a bankroll to use is pretty much equivelent to giving Ray Zee a bankroll. You can pretty much tell how good a player is by the way he talks. If you read his posts you can see that they are well thought out and he does not tell you to do something without giving you a good logical reason to do it. I like to argue with Greg because it gives me a chance to review what I think.

With that being said, you can not judge a persons abilities with isolated events. Sometimes players will misjudge situations that you see should have been done differently. But, I can tell you that the majority of the time he makes the correct judgements, and making good judgements with incomplete information is difficult to accomplish.

I think talking about backing players is a good issue to discuss. Several years ago Greg was looking for backers for the Orleans Open and TOC. We argued about it at this site then. I contributed a small amount of money then, basically because the payback for the event would have been great, plus I think he is a better skilled player than most of the competition that plays these events, but skill only can go so far in a tournament because you can't did in your pocket for more money when you lose a hand, and you are basically fighting the clock.

I was surprised that since I did contribute some money a few years ago that he did not contact me privately to tell me what he was doing this time. Furthermore, his post was hard to figure out how many tournaments or satellites he was playing. I consider these events to be long shots, and not good investments, since the events at Foxwoods do not attract the same number of participants as the WPO or the WSOP.

Personally, I would have backed him if he decided to stick to ring game action only. This would give him a chance to build a big bankroll for playing in the sidegames at the bigger events like the WPO. Plus, I think if he did this, he would not be asking for backers.

Good Luck

Mark

Once again, I was not trying to trash Greg's game. As I said, I respect his ability, having played him on numerous occasions. But I do not know how Greg has done over a long period of time, only what I have witnessed in the past, say, 12 months. I think this information is crucial to provide in such a post.

Let me use myself as an example... in 2000, I had a great year in the Tuesday Night NL at Foxwoods. I won it 7 times, hit the final table 50% and cashed 35%. Was I running good? Sure, that is a safe assesment. I have only won that tournament once since then. Why? (and believe me I ask myself that all the time). Well, for one thing, during my great year, the average number of players was 50-60 and my investment was on average $75 per event. Now, that tourney draws well over 90 always and often over 100 making it much harder to get through the entire field. My average investment has increased $20 as I have to budget more for this event as the payout is now larger and the field tougher.

But even though I have only 1 win, I still have cashed above 30% in the past 2 years and still have turned a profit in it.

In regards to live play, my numbers were solid 1 1/2 BB per hour in all 3 years. Actually a bit bettter this year as I have started playing more Omaha and Stud, thus my game selection is better.

Now I think I have been running horrid in the tourneys. I have been experiencing some really strange deviations for more than 2 years in regards to certain 50/50 hands and open end str8 draws. Yet I still have made money.

So my point is this... when a solid player runs good, or just plays well he wins a certain amount per hour, varying slightly from 1 month to the next. When a solid player runs bad, he breaks even or wins, but just not as much.

Is a huge drop in a bankroll, such as Greg's (and wasn't that bankroll much higher than $35,000 a few months prior to Vegas?) a results of running bad or mistakes in play or game selection?

And, again, as I said before, game knowledge doesn't necessarily equal great play. I offer David Sklansky as evidence (oh boy, here comes some hot e-mails!). This is arguably the games best theorist, but few would say that he is the games best player.

I simply thinnk that Greg should provide some numbers for investors to crunch. They need not be specific dollar amounts but they should include profit per hour, return on investment in tourneys and they should be over a multi year span so that we have sufficient info to rule out bad play or poor game selection as the reason for the large swing in the recent bankroll.

And in regards to the post about dealers giving out info about players, yes I agree that is not kosher, I gave that info out not from dealing to Greg but from observing him in the room as any player would, I just happened to be on duty those nights. I seldom remember if I even dealt to Greg more than once. But as a dealer or player, you can tell whether someone is winning or losing just by observing from a distance. I offerred that info, not as an invasion of privacy but as a player observing another. My apologies if anyone thinks that it was over-the-line.

Enough said.

[Mark Heide]

Glen,

I agree with a lot of what you state. In order for me to back someone for ring game play, I would want to see their record for at least a 1000 hours of play. What games, what limits, and I would want to know their variance.

But, as far as tournaments go, I wouldn't back anyone, except possibly as a gamble for an insignificant amount of money like I did in the past.

Greg has brought up to me about Badger getting backed. But, this guy has been backed for so many years that I think he is totally irresponsible with his bankroll or he is a losing player from playing too many tournaments. Why would you need backers after a few years of successful ring game play in some big games?

This is why I posted what I think is the maximum amount of profits that I think you should not go beyond for tournaments. I don't think it should be more than 10% of your bankroll for the year. Otherwise, look at all the money you could blow without ever winning. For example, Greg did blow alot of bucks this year at the WSOP. There's an essay in David Sklansky's about bankroll for tournaments.

Plus, I did play in the $1500 Omaha-8 or Better tournament this year and guess what... David was at my table. He plays just like the book. He was down to his last few chips and the blinds called him and he was taken out.

Lastly, I think that you will never see a consistant good player lose his bankroll. I'm sure David, Mason, and Ray manage quite well. Besides playing poker well you should be able to manage your money well.

Good Luck

Mark

[scalf]

as someone who has never met greg personally, but tried to read every post of his and understand his viewpoint, i feel safe helping him get a br big enuf to compete,...i figger even if i lose everything, i am money ahead due to his excellent posts. you can cook any books you want, i trust greg...gl /forums/images/icons/smirk.gif

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/mad.gif yeah, and should you be telling everyone about the stuffed bear??? /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[HDPM]

Stuffed bear is in public. Also, he had his one bad beat already that pretty much closes the book on his results. /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

P.S. I'm thinking of taxidermy as a funeral/burial option. Being stuffed and put in a glass case might give all the people who hate me heartburn. I have not investigated the option yet tho.

[Myrtle]

OK....here goes......

I know Greg quite well, and consider him a good friend. I also know Glen from our many discussions at Foxwoods, and would also consider him a friend. I have been an observer to many of their theoretical discussions surrounding the game. They are quite stimulating and I have learned much from them.

As for my own qualifications? I am a mid-level (skill-wise) player and a continuing student of the game. I have one superior strength, however, and that is my ability to read people. "Reading people" is a skill, and like any other skill, it is developed by working it. I've had over 30 years in my profession (sales & marketing) to hone this skill, and feel confident and comfortable commenting on it.

Had all readers have had the opportunity to spend the many hundreds of hours discussing the game as I have had with Greg, I believe that they would feel extremely comfortable with his proposition. I do, and he already has my money.

Given enough time and hindsight, it's fairly easy for most serious players to analyze a particular situation, and determine the best course of action. Many skills are involved in doing this. However, to accomplish this, in REAL TIME & in the heat of the moment, is the province of very few.

IMHO, Greg is one of those very few.......

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Thanks John, very nice words, and I'm touched to hear them.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

P.S. - Come by the house soon for your kickback. ;-)

[Mikey]

hey I saw your name in Cardplayer magazine, you placed 7th I think in an online tournament, WAY TO GO!!! It's nice to see fellow 2+2ers on CardPlayer.