Lead the river? Fold the river? Blech. [Archive]

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Grisgra

03-02-2005, 03:30 PM

I know, Rory, I know, fold preflop. I didn't have a great deal of respect for this guy's preflop raises. Not that my hand was great, admittedly. Maybe raise the flop instead? Wanted to wait until the turn, see if a non-scary hit.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: "Hero" is BB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, MP raises, 2 folds, "Hero" calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
"Hero" checks, MP bets, "Hero" calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
"Hero" checks, MP bets, "Hero" raises, MP calls.

River: (7.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
"Hero" checks, MP bets, "Hero" calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

rory

03-02-2005, 03:41 PM

Fold preflop of course-- yes you don't have much respect for this guys raises, but you have 5 high. Headsup. Out of position.

I like your line postflop. I also like just check-calling the whole way. The problem is the river-- this is where being out of position sucks. If you were in position, you check behind, no problem. But you are out of position. Now, you check and he bets. Does he bet ace high here?.. maybe. But lots of people will just check behind hoping it is good and you were semi-bluffing. He value bets his kings or maybe a pocket pair after you check. If you bet out, what does he call with? Ace high? That's about the only hand you can beat. This is a miserable river decision. You are screwed on the river. This is the BB mistake that is why you should fold preflop, you see what I'm saying? He will value bet if his hand is better or check behind if it is not, and bluff sometimes. You are going to have to just check and pay off.

You fold this one preflop because of the river.

Grisgra

03-02-2005, 03:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You fold this one preflop because of the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The six-outers are killing me. I think you may be right (though does he have odds to call my turn raise? Not really.)

Klak

03-02-2005, 04:40 PM

you didnt really have odds to call the PF raise. i think you need at least one other guy and prolly 2 taking the flop to play here.

Danenania

03-02-2005, 04:44 PM

PF call is incredibly standard. The 1 BB you supposedly lost on the river by being out of position is allllmost made up for by the 2.5 BB's your opponent put into the pot while drawing to 6 outs /images/graemlins/smirk.gif. You have both equity and good implied odds on this blind defense.

I usually checkraise the flop then go from there. I'd be more willing to take your line if I think he has very few outs against me since I don't mind if he takes a free turn card sometimes. Still, against very aggressive players who will always bet the turn then calldown with A-high your play works best. Though I must say, your reason for doing it (to see if a scary card hits) isn't the right reason.

I think a case can be made for betting this river since many players still call with A-high. However I would do so only if I could confidently fold to a raise. Your river play was fine.

Grisgra

03-02-2005, 04:48 PM

But on the other hand, I put in 0.25 big bets with the worst hand. Well, 1.25 if you include the river. But I got this chook to put in 2.5 big bets with the worst hand. One would think, advantage: Grisgra, over the long run. Yes, occasionally he'll suck out on me (hence the reason I waited until the turn to raise, not sure whether that was good) but this ties into what I was saying in that other thread. He's the pf raiser, he's going to be aggressive even if he misses the flop. I'm the wimpy SB, I can just check/fold if *I* miss.

He should have folded to the turn raise -- lord knows on average here he doesn't have six clean outs. But he didn't. Yeah, he sucked out on me. But on average . . .

Well, I'm still on the fence, I guess /images/graemlins/smile.gif. The river *is* a bitch in these BB-defense situations, I completely give you that. But do keep in mind that before that, he's the one putting in most of the $$ with the worst hand, and it's solely because he was the preflop aggressor and thus feels required to do so.

If he had missed the river I'd be bragging about this /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Grisgra

03-02-2005, 04:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Though I must say, your reason for doing it (to see if a scary card hits) isn't the right reason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Standard Ed Miller reasoning here -- get more money in with a double-sized bet, on a street where I think I'm more likely ahead. Valid, you think?

Yeah, see my 2nd response to rory re getting him to bet lots with the worst hand. I understand his point of view, though, and he's right -- the river is a bitch. Against someone continuing to be into *me* on the turn (i.e., someone who would have folded already without a piece), his line is going to cost him more money than my blind defense will, I think. Against a better player, not so much.

rory

03-02-2005, 05:04 PM

You both have the same probability of hitting on the flop. If you hit and he doesn't, then you will probably win a couple bets, but not a river bet, because your one pair is going to be so low you can't value bet it unless you think he is calling you with ace high. If he hits and you don't, then he just wins what is in there. If he hits and you also hit, you might be in the position to lose a lot of money, including a river value bet. If nobody hits, he will just take it down. It is just a terrible spot to be in.

In your best case scenario, you are going to be missing a bet sometimes, by either value betting incorrectly or not betting when he would have called you with A high. He will probably check behind if you check with a worse hand but will bet a better one. I don't know. I just don't see how it can be right to call with this sort of hand. It goes against all principles of poker.

Grisgra

03-02-2005, 05:38 PM

If I miss, I fold, whether he's hit or not -- advantage him.

If I hit, and he misses, I make probably at least a couple big bets, maybe more if he plays it the way he did here.

If I hit, and he hits, yep, I'm probably putting in almost the same amount I'm winning in the previous example -- some of the time. But the thing is, I can put him on two big cards. It's not *too* dangerous to assume he doesn't have a big pocket pair.

So if the flop comes AQ5, and I have 54s, well . . . time to check-fold. Ditto KQ5 or KJ5 or whatever. On this flop, though, I can be 90% certain, or more, that I'm ahead.

So basically I'm putting money in only in those cases where I've hit and he's very likely missed. (I may try to bluff him off of his hand if it's undercards and I've still missed, but I think that's a break-even EV proposition for me at the moment. At best.)

Also, note that the chance that we both hit on the flop is definitely lower than the chance that I hit and he misses.

I guess the gist is that there's a lot of factors going on here, and that if I think he's predictable (he'll bet the flop and turn with an unimproved hand) I can make money out of him long term with these calls.

But we've had this discussion before, no need to rehash it. I see your point, I just think that calls like these against predictable folks are okay. They certainly worked well for me in 5/10 -- exceedingly well -- and this particular opponent played like a 5/10 player.

Still . . . 54s is admittedly sketchy /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Danenania

03-02-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You both have the same probability of hitting on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

And you are getting 3.5 to 1 and can outplay your opponent postflop. Voila! Even if you lose a whole BB postflop on average from being out of position (and I don't think you will lose that much), you are still getting an effective 1.5 to 1 and should call. Also pile this onto my case: you really have a BETTER chance of hitting the flop than most hands your opponent is raising. 54s hits a hell of a lot more flops than A6o.

Btw, I'm done debating preflops like this. If you guys want to fold profitable hands it is fine by me. However I wish you would state it as more of an opinion than telling impressionable young posters to "fold pf" in every marginal situation. Rory you have your style and that is fine by me, but it is pretty far out there in terms of relevancy to the way most of us play.

Grisgra

03-02-2005, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

And you are getting 3.5 to 1 and can outplay your opponent postflop. Voila! Even if you lose a whole BB postflop on average from being out of position (and I don't think you will lose that much), you are still getting an effective 1.5 to 1 and should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite the way the math works. Still, when we did a little rough math in another thread, we came up with that I'd have to make around 0.8SBs worth of mistakes more than my opponent in order to make calling bad.

Against this opponent, not the case. I'm definitely tightening up more in the BB than before, because I'm up against better and more aggressive players than before. But this guy was pretty damn predictable. Hell, so much so I probably should have folded to the river bet. He almost definitely had two high cards and would probably check behind with an unimproved ace.