Big Tourney-A/A First Hand Vs. Five All-In Players

[grandgnu]

You are in a $10,000 tourney with 10K starting chips and let's say 876 players.

On the very first hand in the BB you hold A/A.

UTG holds Q/J of hearts and pushes all-in

UTG+1 holds A/J of clubs and calls

UTG+2 holds A/K of spades and calls

Button holds 7/7 and calls

SB holds Q/Q and calls

What do you do?

[AngusThermopyle]

I don't know why this is in "Probability" but,

via PokerStove, the AA will win 42% of the time.

Call:
58% of the time your EV is 0.
42% of the time you will have 60K in chips vs 870 other players with 10K each. EV(Call+Win) is ????. If I am playing against a bunch of 3rd graders? a seasoned field?

Fold:
You have 10K in chips ( ok, minus the BB ) vs 870 players also with 10K and one with 50K. EV(Fold) is ????

Clearly the question is whether

.42 * EV(Call+Win) > EV(Fold)

which is dependent on payout structure and relative skill levels.

[pzhon]

If you fold AA in this situations, you must grossly overestimate your tournament skill.

People love to talk about how great players should pass up tiny advantages, an idea that isn't particularly important and is unrelated to why the players are great. Somehow it gets distorted into the idea that mediocre players should pass up huge advantages like this one. That's terrible.

Even if you expect that there will be great opportunities later, you will be able to take advantage of them more if you have more chips.

[slickpoppa]

After 579 posts how could you still post junk like this?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
After 579 posts how could you still post junk like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm intrigued by the division of what everyone would choose to do. You would think that people on the 2+2 forums would lean more heavily one way rather than the other. Instead we have an almost equal 3-way split.

It's interesting because it gives you an idea of what to expect when playing in the tourneys against others.

[TALLBrad]

I think the question is better to ask not knowing what the hole cards of the other players are.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the question is better to ask not knowing what the hole cards of the other players are.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually originally intended to pose the question without having the hole cards revealed, and then revealing them later to see how people would respond.

Personally I think pot odds dictate the call, but are you going to have enough of an edge against five random hands to risk your entire tournament? It's an intriguing situation.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After 579 posts how could you still post junk like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm intrigued by the division of what everyone would choose to do. You would think that people on the 2+2 forums would lean more heavily one way rather than the other. Instead we have an almost equal 3-way split.

It's interesting because it gives you an idea of what to expect when playing in the tourneys against others.

[/ QUOTE ]

This question is not interesting. First of all, basically the exact same question has been posted in the MTT forum several times already. It has already been established that some people are dumb enough to fold AA in this situation. Second of all, the question is completely unrealistic. Unless inflation suddenly skyrockets, there will never be a $10,000 tournament where 5 people move all-in preflop on the first hand. Finally, even if this situation ever did occur, there is no question that you should call with AA in this situation.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After 579 posts how could you still post junk like this?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm intrigued by the division of what everyone would choose to do. You would think that people on the 2+2 forums would lean more heavily one way rather than the other. Instead we have an almost equal 3-way split.

It's interesting because it gives you an idea of what to expect when playing in the tourneys against others.

[/ QUOTE ]

This question is not interesting. First of all, basically the exact same question has been posted in the MTT forum several times already. It has already been established that some people are dumb enough to fold AA in this situation. Second of all, the question is completely unrealistic. Unless inflation suddenly skyrockets, there will never be a $10,000 tournament where 5 people move all-in preflop on the first hand. Finally, even if this situation ever did occur, there is no question that you should call with AA in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because YOU don't find the question interesting, and YOU know how it should be played, and YOU have seen it on these forums before......does not mean that others who may be new to these forums (or may have not read every thread) are familiar with it.

If you don't care for the question/thread, then just don't post in it, simple enough to handle I'd think.

[carlo]

Turn the question around--One player bets all- in to you and you KNOW your chance of winning is 42%. Call or fold?

regards,
carlo

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn the question around--One player bets all- in to you and you KNOW your chance of winning is 42%. Call or fold?

regards,
carlo

[/ QUOTE ]

The question that you just asked is completely different and irrelevant. In the original poster's question, you had a 42% chance of winning against 5 people. That means you have a 42% chance of multiplying your stack by 6. In your question you have a 42% of doubling your stack, which is completely different.

The answer to your question is obvious: Fold. Your EV after folding is 10,000. Your EV after calling is (.42)*(20,000)= 8,400.

In comparison, the EV of folding AA the original question is 10,000. The EV of calling is (.42)*(60,000) = 25,200.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Just because YOU don't find the question interesting, and YOU know how it should be played, and YOU have seen it on these forums before......does not mean that others who may be new to these forums (or may have not read every thread) are familiar with it.

If you don't care for the question/thread, then just don't post in it, simple enough to handle I'd think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can choose to be interested in whatever you want, but if this question still interests you, your knowledge of tournament poker theory is poor. This question is the poker equivalent of asking whether the world is round or flat. The correct play in this situation is to call. And as Sklansky would say, "It is not even close."

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Just because YOU don't find the question interesting, and YOU know how it should be played, and YOU have seen it on these forums before......does not mean that others who may be new to these forums (or may have not read every thread) are familiar with it.

If you don't care for the question/thread, then just don't post in it, simple enough to handle I'd think.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can choose to be interested in whatever you want, but if this question still interests you, your knowledge of tournament poker theory is poor. This question is the poker equivalent of asking whether the world is round or flat. The correct play in this situation is to call. And as Sklansky would say, "It is not even close."

[/ QUOTE ]

What I find interesting is the variety of responses. I would of course call based on the pot-odds, but it's interesting to see the percentage of players who would fold and try to "survive"

[bunky9590]

I can see those cards they have? Easiest call ever.

[bunky9590]

You have an ENORMOUS edge against thoe hands. Everybody has blocker for everyone else. I call there w/o hesitation.

[JonLines]

[ QUOTE ]
You can choose to be interested in whatever you want, but if this question still interests you, your knowledge of tournament poker theory is poor. This question is the poker equivalent of asking whether the world is round or flat. The correct play in this situation is to call. And as Sklansky would say, "It is not even close."

[/ QUOTE ]

He has already stated that he knows what the right decision is, his intrigue is on the general awareness of the right answer.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

this poll is retarded. anybody thinking about folding is retarded.

[fishfeet]

Well - Ive had one situation where Ive folded AA preflop..

late in a toury, close to the money, in the SB. Im 2nd in chips at the table, 1st in chips is all-in, along with 3 others..
given my stack size, the stage of the tourny, and the number of players in, I opted to fold... painfully.

maybe it was wrong.... if it were a cash game Id never lay it down.
However, I would have ended up losing to a straight.

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]

However, I would have ended up losing to a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
-Objection, irrelevant!
-Sustained.

Terrible fold

[fishfeet]

Perhaps.
But late in a tourny, with a large chip stack, Id rather not get all my money in the pot when Im probably not even 50% to win.
Fewer chips, I would have called.

Call me 'too tight for my own good'... but in a different situation, I would called.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps.
But late in a tourny, with a large chip stack, Id rather not get all my money in the pot when Im probably not even 50% to win.
Fewer chips, I would have called.

Call me 'too tight for my own good'... but in a different situation, I would called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it the chip leader who took down the pot, or some other player? Depending on how far ahead you are (2nd in chips, but how much ahead of 3rd-5th players?) you're likely to take any side-pot action. If the side pot is large enough, then it's certainly worth it.

Besides, are you playing for 5th place or 1st place? Usually a big difference in the money. Can't see you getting a better opportunity to wipe out numerous players and move up significantly in the money. The only player capable of busting you is the chip leader. And even if you lose to the chip leader, so does everyone else usually. So you're guaranteed 2nd place money (while right now as 2nd in chips against the other players you aren't)

[r3vbr]

I dunno, about 40% chance (as another poster put it)
to multiply your stack by 6, becomming chip leader and way ahead of everyone right from the first hand. What kind of question is that? This is a miracle hand and I would consider it a PRESENT FROM HEAVEN if everyone called like that when I had aces. And if I accidentally folded them I would smash my computer in rage.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, about 40% chance (as another poster put it)
to multiply your stack by 6, becomming chip leader and way ahead of everyone right from the first hand. What kind of question is that? This is a miracle hand and I would consider it a PRESENT FROM HEAVEN if everyone called like that when I had aces. And if I accidentally folded them I would smash my computer in rage.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if everyone had different cards this time around? In my first example they're all blocking one another for the most part. What if things were a bit different?

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif

7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

[KingDan]

I think it would be a better question if you knew for a fact someone else had aces instead of ak.

[AngusThermopyle]

You mean if your AA only wins 27.1% of the time?

The consensus seem to be full steam ahead.