variance question as it relates to 4tableing

[Tk79]

Ive been trying to figure out if my standard deviation should go up or down the more tables I play.
I decided that playing more tables puts me closer to the "long run" faster and should make my actual win rate closer to my projected win rate much faster. I therefor decided that my SD must go down.
Then I realized that if I have a big hand cracked on 3 tables within a few minutes that my SD would be huge. So it must go up.
My final thoughts on it were that perhaps my SD/hr would go up, my SD/100 hands would stay the same, but I would reach the long run faster and begin to settle close to my true win rate much sooner than playing only one table.
Im probably completely off so anyone who can help or care to comment pls do.

[bunky9590]

I exclusively 4 table the 5-10 6 max. SD/100 is right around 16BB/100 hands.

Yes there are some sick swings. That includes sick UPSWINGS!

Ran just above flat the month of february until the last 2 days. Last 2 days of Feb. up 150 bets in like 2500 hands.

Swings happen. As far as 4 tabling, SD/100 same. SD/hour a touch higher.

[RevAgain]

Assuming your perfomance is unaffected by the extra tables then they have no affect on your SD.

I don't see why you're interested in 'SD/hour' if that's even a real term, it's completely meaningless. You're correct that there is the possibility that you can lose or gain more 4 tabling in an hour because you're playing more hands, if you were playing a single table though you would just take 4 times as long to lose or gain that much. Your bankroll requirements are completely unchanged, if you're a losing player you will go broke sooner timewise but in the same number of hands, if you're a winning player your profits will be proportional to the number of tables you play.

Rev

[Paul2432]

The +/- interval around your win rate decreases the more hands you play. This is known as the standard error (SE). If SD is your standard deviation per 100 hands and N is the number of hands then:

SE = SD / square root (N/100)

+/- 1 SE corresponds to 68% confidence.
+/- 1.96 SE corresponds to 95% confidence.

You are correct that SD/100 will not change. SD/hour will increase.

Paul

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
My final thoughts on it were that perhaps

my SD/hr would go up,

my SD/100 hands would stay the same,

but I would reach the long run faster and begin to settle close to my true win rate much sooner than playing only one table.


[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, this is right.

Your SD/hour should be 2=sqrt(4) times as much when you play 4 tables. Typical swings may be +- 24 BB rather than +- 12 BB from one table.

Your SD/100 should be unchanged.

When you estimate your win rate per 100 from the results of a fixed number of hours, you have 4 times as much data, so your estimate should be about 2=sqrt(4) times as accurate. Your estimate of your win rate from a fixed number of hands should not be any different.