Help me, I'm stooopid!

[Schizo]

This thread has me cnfuzzd. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=1828541 &Forum=All_Forums&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Mai n=1820412&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=23702&dat erange=1&newerval=1&newertype=w&olderval=&oldertyp e=&bodyprev=#Post1828541)

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $15. MP2 posts a blind of $15. Hero posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 (poster) raises</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

ok, now look at the responses.


Wired Jokers says:
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's outs:

Backdoor flush to the nuts: 1.5
Backdoor straight to the nuts: .5
Overcard: 1 (at best, for fear of domination)

[/ QUOTE ]

14.5:1 is not enough outs to call on this hand using just pot odds.

So I ask why do you call?

sthief
[ QUOTE ]
my backdoor draws have implied odds. there's also a small chance the turn gets checked through. in general, you can afford to make slightly loose calls on the flop, because it's so cheap, and small factors, like turning a draw, and getting a free showdown and A-high holding up or getting a possible free river card, can make up the difference. those things don't need to happen that often for me to make up for the 1/7 of a SB that I'm giving up on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I ask how do you get 1/7?

[ QUOTE ]
I'm getting 14.5-1, which is the equivalent of 1/15.5 I need like 16-1, which is the equivalent of 1/17. my mistake costs 1/15.5 - 1/17 which is actually 1/175 of a bet. maybe that's not right though. that's what it would seem like it should be logically

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I am totally cnfuzzd. I understand 14.5:1 is equal to 1/15.5 and 16-1 is 1/17. But does that really mean it costs him 1/175th of a bet? That doesn't seem right.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

Now I am totally cnfuzzd. I understand 14.5:1 is equal to 1/15.5 and 16-1 is 1/17. But does that really mean it costs him 1/175th of a bet? That doesn't seem right.

[/ QUOTE ]

His EV (in small bets) is: (1/17)(14.5) + (-1)(16/17) = -.088

So it's costing him like 1/11 of a small bet.

However, I don't think this is the best way to analyze the situation mathematically. A more thorough analysis would break it down into the times:

1) You flop a backdoor str8 draw. How much it usually costs to see the river, how likely you are to hit the river, etc.
2) Same thing with b/d flush.
3) hitting your A on the turn

In cases 1) and 2), you'd also incorporate the chance of hitting your A on the R. Also, how often is your A good, etc.

But I think Josh is just saying that it's close, and he has some bonus outs, so to speak, that push him over the edge. Also implied odds. In the heat of battle, the reasoning is fine.

[Schizo]

Damn gamming mouse, when did you hit poohbah? Weren't you at 1200 posts a month ago?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn gamming mouse, when did you hit poohbah? Weren't you at 1200 posts a month ago?

[/ QUOTE ]

They grow up so fast -- you just don't know where the time goes!