What am I in for?

[tripemonkey]

Hello all.

I've got sort of a general question, but first I'll give a little personal poker history.

I've been playing small stakes (2/4 - 4/8) hold 'em for about 4-5 months now, and am holding my own... barely. When I started out, I went about $500 in the hole over the course of the first 5 or 6 games - which was pretty much just due to lack of skill on my part. I reassessed, got a couple of books, and stuck to it, and proceeded to make about $1300 over the next 2 months or so (i.e., $800 profit). That was pretty much the peak for me. Since then lost almost all of that, and I'm pretty much dead even right now - even though I'm like a zillion times better than when I first started out.

I think I'm playing pretty good hands, and I think I'm playing them decently - albeit certainly not perfectly. I know a few things about pot-odds and protecting my hand. Although I usually can't, for example, say EXACTLY how many bets are in the pot, I'm not very far off, so I don't think many mistakes I'm making there are just totally tanking me.

I guess my question is: Does anyone out there have any experience with what to expect in small-stakes hole 'em? Is this to be expected? Are these kinds of swings normal, or do they indicate that I likely have some kind of serious flaw(s) in my game?

Every once in a while I'm beaten by someone who I feel is a superior player. Most of the time, however, I feel I'm one of the best players at the table - if not THE best. I'm not trying to be arrogant; the vast majority of the time I can spot serious errors in most of the other players' games.

The thing is, I'm getting killed by the guy who draws out on me with the 94o. Sure, sometimes the odds make it worth it for him to stay in after the flop - but HE doesn't know that! I do what I can to protect my hand, but sheeeesh.

I continue, of course, to study and to play. And I'm sure I'll be posting my play and/or observations on specific hands. The whole thing is, I thought I could make money at this. But I'm wondering: do I have to be an expert at calculating pot equity and reverse implied odds just to make some modest dough in small-stakes hold 'em? I'd welcome any comments or advice you more experienced players had. Thanks.

[Pov]

Don't get frustrated or complacent in the short term.

You probably haven't played long enough to have any real idea whether you are winning or losing. Pros frequently relate month long losing streaks in magazine articles (and on these forums) after playing 40-80 hours per week. Their losing streaks are probably longer than the total of your playing experience (I'm guessing).

If you've heard the 300 big bet bankroll lecture on this site before then go read about it again because variance will own you in the short run. If you're playing $4/$8 then being down $500 is a walk in the park. It's hard to believe when you have great days that you could ever lose. You will. Just keep making good decisions, post your hands, learn from them and play within your bankroll and you'll come out a winner in the long run. And that long run is a lot longer than you're going to want it to be.

Oh yeah, the point is that pot odds and all that is very important and you should master it but that probably isn't the biggest factor in your bankroll swings you're asking about as long as you aren't making large errors in your drawing decisions.

[deacsoft]

Down swings and short term losses will happen. I know it's hard to do because I went through it too, but you have to think of poker by the year. Not by the day. This will solve a lot of problems.