Worst downswing for a winning player. [Archive]

KidNapster

03-01-2005, 07:42 PM

Several months ago I went 40 consecutive sngs without cashing at $55s. After that, I had to question whether or not I was still a winning player. It turns out that I am... but it was still a very demoralizing experience.

voltron87b

03-01-2005, 09:35 PM

No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

You are either not a winning player or were on complete tilt.

Gramps

03-01-2005, 09:49 PM

50 buy-in (approx) downswing 3 times out of close to 5,000 SNGs at the $215 level. 22 OOTM at one point. Pain, agony, pain.

kamrann

03-01-2005, 09:58 PM

Harsh. I agree some degree of tilt/off form play may be a more likely explanation for a run this bad, but how can you say it's not possible just due to a bad run of luck? Of course it's possible. I don't know how likely, though no doubt it could be estimated given ITM, ROI, SD etc from previous results. But just because you may never have experienced such a run doesn't mean it can't happen. It may happen to you in the future. It probably wont. But it could quite easily have happened to someone else anyway.

valenzuela

03-01-2005, 10:07 PM

40 tourneys OOTM on a row??????????OMG,OMG.

Irieguy

03-01-2005, 10:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has.

If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice.

Irieguy

Jason Strasser

03-01-2005, 10:25 PM

Gigabet once told me about a 1 or 2 day stretch he lost 16k playin the 200s.

I dont play the sngs anymore tho, but I think my worse was around 15 or 16.

stripsqueez

03-01-2005, 10:29 PM

SNG players have no idea what a decent downswing looks like - i've played around 5,000 SNG's now and the worse downswing was about 35 buy ins which happened in 1 6 hour session of the 200's - i won 38 buy ins in a 5 hour session the next time i played - other than that i dont think i've been through 20 buy ins

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

ethan

03-01-2005, 10:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has.

If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20.

Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row.

eastbay

03-01-2005, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
22 OOTM at one point. Pain, agony, pain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Holy sh...

Wow.

eastbay

lorinda

03-01-2005, 11:16 PM

No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

I haven't done it, and probably won't but you have failed to apply Lorinda's Paradox to your reply.

Lori

curtains

03-01-2005, 11:27 PM

My gut tells me that if you cash even 30% of the time, then the odds are well over 1 in a billion that you can go 40 in a row without cashing.

ChrisV

03-01-2005, 11:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I dont play the sngs anymore tho

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you play now? And why did you stop playing SNGs?

ChrisV

03-01-2005, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My gut tells me that if you cash even 30% of the time, then the odds are well over 1 in a billion that you can go 40 in a row without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your gut is wrong. It's 1 in 1,570,646.

That's still pretty damn unlikely, but it's possible it has happened to someone on 2+2.

Interesting how much more likely that is to happen than if your ITM is 40 (which is one in 750,000,000 odd). Goes to show how much win rate affects variance.

lorinda

03-01-2005, 11:45 PM

That's still pretty damn unlikely, but it's possible it has happened to someone on 2+2.

Lorinda's paradox states that an event that should happen to an individual once per lifetime should be posted daily on 2+2 and makes evaluating someone's skill level from a one-off post about a bad streak impossible.

Lori

Gramps

03-01-2005, 11:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

22 OOTM at one point. Pain, agony, pain.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Holy sh...

Wow.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think that's the most objects I've ever had flying across the room within a 5 hour period...

Gramps

03-01-2005, 11:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has.

If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Similar to David Ross's recent post about his 510 BB losing streak in 15/30. Anyone who's played that game for a period of time has had at least one 250 BB or so downswing. If you can do it once, you can do it twice in a row.

zaphod

03-01-2005, 11:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's still pretty damn unlikely, but it's possible it has happened to someone on 2+2.

Lorinda's paradox states that an event that should happen to an individual once per lifetime should be posted daily on 2+2 and makes evaluating someone's skill level from a one-off post about a bad streak impossible.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice !

curtains

03-01-2005, 11:52 PM

Almost every winning 15-30 player I know has gone on at least an 8k to 10k losing streak, if not more. 40 OTM's for a winning player should be much more unlikely.

Nottom

03-01-2005, 11:53 PM

Read this link )Them SNGs can be streaky (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&Entry=69418&F_Board=probability &Thread=1709569&partnumber=&postmarker=) ), play around in Excel, and be amazed by what can happen.

ChrisV

03-02-2005, 12:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Lorinda's paradox states that an event that should happen to an individual once per lifetime should be posted daily on 2+2 and makes evaluating someone's skill level from a one-off post about a bad streak impossible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't go that far. Suppose there are 1,500 regulars here who have played on average 1,000 tourneys each. If they all had 30% ITM's we'd expect to see 1 40 OOTM streak all up. If they all had 40% ITM's it's still very unlikely that we'd see any.

eagle

03-02-2005, 12:03 AM

I am consistently amazed at how many smart people can be so fascinated by these streaks.

Will someone please write a program that simulates a coin flip?

Run the simulation for a million flips adding up the streaks and post the lengths and distibutions of them.

Everybody can then compare their bad streaks to a coin flip. It will probably make everyone feel better when their losing.

lorinda

03-02-2005, 12:27 AM

I wouldn't go that far. Suppose there are 1,500 regulars here who have played on average 1,000 tourneys each. If they all had 30% ITM's we'd expect to see 1 40 OOTM streak all up. If they all had 40% ITM's it's still very unlikely that we'd see any.

Over the whole of the site though there are 23000 posters, most of whom would post if they had a once in a lifetime run.

23000 days is 63 years.

How the paradox is applied and in which forum it occurs would require better research by someone who doesn't think it's a paradox /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Lori

Gramps

03-02-2005, 12:36 AM

True, 40 OOTM for a winning player in SNGs is a lot more unlikely to happen than a 500 BB downswing in 15/30. Point being simply that whatever the "accepted expected downswing" for a winning player to experience from time to time, over the very long run, it will double up on you back-to-back (okay, that sounded kind of seedy).

Gramps

03-02-2005, 12:37 AM

Jason Strasser

03-02-2005, 02:32 PM

I kinda moved over to stars to play the 5/10 and 10/20 nl cash games and HU sngs (usually 1ks). Sometimes I mix it up and play a sng on stars for 300-1k.

I kinda got really bored with sngs. I personally find nl ring game more interesting, although the action is definitely not as fast.

I moved some cash over to party though when i saw the new ring games on there, so I may play a few sngs for fun.

-Jason

voltron87b

03-02-2005, 02:38 PM

There's a big difference between having a long streak with -ROI and not cashing in 40 SNGs. I would like to see the HHs of a strong player who has done this. I am 100% sure you and I would find big leaks in their game during the 40 streak.

se2schul

03-02-2005, 02:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20.

Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that just because your ITM is 40%, it doesn't mean that you're playing like a 40% ITM player right now.

Today my boss yelled at me, my truck broke down, I got into a fight with my girlfriend, my dog ran away and my friggin coffee was cold this morning. How well do you think I'll be playing tonight?? I certainly think that I have a better shot of going 40 OOTM than usual.

skipperbob

03-02-2005, 03:29 PM

I WAS EVEN IN 1966 /images/graemlins/confused.gif

Daliman

03-02-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

You are either not a winning player or were on complete tilt.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree. 14 in a row is my record at the 200's, although the last 10 Step 5's I've played, I have no cashes, which goes 4 deep, with 6 5ths. I never thought that was possible. Anyways, I had a 9300 downturn at the 200's, that's my worst.

Daliman

03-02-2005, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has.

If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

This surprises me from you. The difference in magnitude between the two from a "winning" player is like the difference between the 2 foot hill in my backyard and mount everest.

Daliman

03-02-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]

My gut tells me that if you cash even 30% of the time, then the odds are well over 1 in a billion that you can go 40 in a row without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gee, too bad no one in this thread has already figured this out... [ QUOTE ]
If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oluwafemi

03-02-2005, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No winning player playing well can go 40 SNGs without cashing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Could a winning player go 20 in a row without a cash? I have. Gramps has. Anybody who's played a few thousand SNGs has.

If you can go 20 in a row, you can go 20 in a row twice.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Say you make the money 40% of the time. If you play a set of 40 the odds against you losing all of them are around 750,000,000:1. (1 / 0.6^40 = 750M.) For 20 it's more like 25,000:1. If you only place 30% of the time, it's 1.5M:1 against for 40 and 1250:1 for 20.

Such a streak is clearly more likely as you play more SNGs, but I'd be surprised to see anyone here lose 40 in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

i heard somewhere, probably 2+2, that actionmonkey lost 27K at one point in Party's $1000 Steps. i can't recall if this meant 27 straight OOTMs or down 27K for his day/session.

Oluwafemi

03-02-2005, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I kinda moved over to stars to play the 5/10 and 10/20 nl cash games and HU sngs (usually 1ks). Sometimes I mix it up and play a sng on stars for 300-1k.

I kinda got really bored with sngs. I personally find nl ring game more interesting, although the action is definitely not as fast.

I moved some cash over to party though when i saw the new ring games on there, so I may play a few sngs for fun.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

5/10 and 10/20NL?
1K HU SNGs?

Party's $215s must have been very good to you. any thoughts of going back to them? what about their $1065 Steps?