$33 vs. $109 Bubble Play

[NegativeEV]

I generally 4-table $33's (say 250 monthly) but am branching into $109's slowly. I'm very comfortable with general strategy and bubble play on the $33's, but less so on the $109's. Example from last night (from memory, but amounts very close to actual):

Party $109; Blinds 100/200. Stacks before posting blinds:

SB Villian: 4400
BB Hero: 1500
UTG: 3200
Button: 900

Hero deal A /images/graemlins/heart.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif. Folded to SB Villian who pushes.

Villian was LAGGY and I was 100% certain he would push here with any 2. Bubble and near bubble play had been very aggressive and opponent calling standards have been fairly low in general.

ICM says:
Fold: .1885
Call Win: .293

AK vs. random hand is ~ 65.5% so ICM Fold equity is 18.85% and call equity is 19.19%. Real close.

So....... on the $33's I would often be the only aggressive player on the bubble here and I would FOLD this hand with the expectation that I could steal with impunity and build a stack with low risk (its also less likely that Villan pushes any 2 on $33's so the numbers are a bit worse for a call). This is easy and is why the $33's are so beatable.

I have a small sample size on the $109's (~ 20 or so), but my feel is that this is a pretty easy CALL there. During this game, I felt as though Villian would continue to run over the table and my steal opportunities would be VERY few. I also felt that the short stack here would be much more inclined to call a steal attempt than I experience with similar stack sizes at the $33's. Anyway, this all told me to CALL here which went against my $33 experience.

Please help me out here

-EV

[NegativeEV]

No thoughts on OP? Ok, then help me with general changes in strategy/game play from $33 to $109.... anyone?

[curtains]

I'd be very surprised if this wasnt an easy call.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be very surprised if this wasnt an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume this is a general statement for this type of situation in a standard $109? This is different than a similar situation in a $33 where your bubble play advantage is so huge. Please help me understand other key differences in play (pre-bubble, etc.)?

[jg22]

Maybe this is a newbie question, but I do not understand why this is a fold in the $30s, especially considering that you know its probably not a random hand, and most likely Ax, a pp, maybe Kx, and least likely Qx. Personally, I would call this every time in the 30s and expect to dominate at least 75% of the time.

The other reason being that with only 1500, I am in danger of being the short stack if the 900 stack doubles up, then I am the short stack with the blinds going up.

Granted I am a newbie, but I make this call on the bubble just about 100% of the time. Perhaps this is a leak in my game, can you just explain further why this is a fold in the 30s?

Oh ya - and what hands would you call with in that situation?

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a newbie question, but I do not understand why this is a fold in the $30s, especially considering that you know its probably not a random hand, and most likely Ax, a pp, maybe Kx, and least likely Qx. Personally, I would call this every time in the 30s and expect to dominate at least 75% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are definitely $33 games where this IS a CALL, but it really depends on the nature of the bubble play and the overall level of aggression. The VAST majority of players would auto-call with this hand on the $33's everytime. However, I am very confident in saying that there are MANY (probably most) $33 games where you'd be wrong to take this 60/40 advantage simply becasue the bubble play is so terrible/passive. Many times on a $33, the big stack who has push position on me here would be all too tentative and I can take the role of blind stealer. I give up the 60/40 advantage on this hand and more than make up for it with repeated steals against the weak field.

This advantage and general poor bubble play is less common as you move up.

EDIT: There are MANY times that I would auto-call an all-in on the $33's with AK, but the specific stacks sizes in this example and typical bubble play result in fold here generally.

[jg22]

Sorry to keep pestering you, but I am just trying to learn /images/graemlins/smile.gif

What exactly is poor bubble play at these levels? Do you mean passively folding to steals? Or just generally not pushing with any 2 in an attempt to steal? Or just more generally poorly reading the pushing standards of another player and calling/folding based on those reads?

Incidentally, would you disagree that in the 30s you would be a larger favorite than 60/40? I find a lot of people pushing on steals with Ax in the 30s.

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
What exactly is poor bubble play at these levels?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not identifying proper push opportunities.


[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, would you disagree that in the 30s you would be a larger favorite than 60/40? I find a lot of people pushing on steals with Ax in the 30s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but just slightly larger than 60/40 (PP is a likely push hand as well). See this from eastbay (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/hand-rankings.html)

I realize that this means you need a BIG advantage in the rest of bubble play to pass on this call........

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I find a lot of people pushing on steals with Ax in the 30s.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great point. Even an aggressive player at the $33's isn't stealing with any 2 there (I would be, however). A-x is going to be a more frequent candidate than many other 2-card pushing combos. I think this tips the scale toward calling here unless the button is shorter.

Irieguy

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a great point. Even an aggressive player at the $33's isn't stealing with any 2 there (I would be, however). A-x is going to be a more frequent candidate than many other 2-card pushing combos. I think this tips the scale toward calling here unless the button is shorter.


[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on what you believe your advantage to be over the field. Somewhat table read specific.

[d1sterbd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I find a lot of people pushing on steals with Ax in the 30s.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a great point. Even an aggressive player at the $33's isn't stealing with any 2 there (I would be, however). A-x is going to be a more frequent candidate than many other 2-card pushing combos. I think this tips the scale toward calling here unless the button is shorter.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I play $22s and $33s mostly and I would probably call here for the exact reasons that you two mention unless I have a great read to do otherwise. I would really like to know if others think this is incorrect at $33 and if it is incorrect at higher SNGs.

BTW, why are you moving from $33 straight to $109?

-d1sterbd

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
..... and if it is incorrect at higher SNGs.


[/ QUOTE ]

My original post was aimed at confirming whether a call here was automatic at the $109 level. I'm comfortable now that it is.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, why are you moving from $33 straight to $109?


[/ QUOTE ]

I played the $55's in the past and am BR'd for the $109's.