15/30: QJ misplayed on all streets?

I limp with QhJh UTG. Only button calls. SB folds, BB checks. First lap for the BB so I don't have a read on him. Button is weak-tight. Would have raised pre-flop here with AA-99 or a big Ace.
Flop: 9h 5c 2s.
BB bets. I call. Don't really know why especially since I didn't have a plan for the turn which is rare. I guess I thought my prestigious QJ suited deserved a better fate than that flop. Button folds.
Turn: 5s
BB checks, I bet.
River: Kc
BB checks, I bet.

Veiled references to my incompetency on all streets appreciated.
I don't think the outcome was important but I'll post it later anyway.
Jamie

[MichaelD]

Jamie,

Not sure what limit this is at but for my money, this hand does not have a positive expectation in early position. I would suggest folding this hand pre-flop most of the time unless the game is unusually passive with many players seeing the flop AND you have a good read on the table.

In regards to your post flop play, sorry to say, but I am almost speechless.

Hope this helps.

Just some thoughts...

Michael D.

[MichaelD]

ok I guess I am really tired - for the second time tonight - I just reread the title and realized the limit was 15-30.

Sorry for the oversight.

Just some thoughts...

Michael D.

[Ed Miller]

It would have to be a pretty darn tough table for me to fold QJs UTG.

[MichaelD]

MajorKong,

I respect your thoughts. However what is a tough fold for you here is not so tough for me. I believe this hand and others similar to it - when played out of position - have the potential for post flop trouble. I have personally found them to have a negative expectation up front unless the game is passive and has a lot of callers pre-flop.

I am not saying they cannot be played, or that I never play them - just that the potential exists for them to be very troublesome long term.

Personally, I prefer to play a lesser hand with position.

Just some thoughts...

Michael D

[Renaud Desferet]

Utility and expectation are two differents things, and asking for trouble does not mean negative expectation.
These hands belong to the "added" hands Abdul talked about.
The reason is that if the game is tough the blind equity is big enough to make it profitable even if you will be a big underdog when reraised.
This is really a basic poker concept : you play very few hands utg, and these hands are big enough in the head of other players to get the blinds often(cf the AQ test). So adding a few hands is a given!
Now you add not enough hands for the other players to correctly raise with AJo . Some might do it because they want to play "expertly" and adjust to your play after having seen you play TKs and JKs UTG but they would be very wrong...
Abdul I think was the first to expose these ideas (it seems very basic but he was the first to express it as a blind equity consequence in tough games) and in my opinion it is one of his best achievements.
BTW my UTG online expectation after 100K+ hands is far above the current beliefs for this position.

[MichaelD]

Renaud,

DO you think that online and live poker would differ regarding this or other examples like it?

Just some thoughts...

Michael D.

[Renaud Desferet]

I don't know live play but it should be no different.
The level of my UTG expectation might be linked to online specificities though

[J_V]

Michael D,

You're trying to tell me that against those Hollywood turkeys you can't squeeze an edge out with Q-Js UTG? I don't buy it for a second. I guess when you only play AA, the occasional KK, and 9-3o, everything in the middle begins to look like trash, or maybe an old timer like you forgot how to flop the A-K-10.

[Ginogino]

UTG if I am going to play QJs (which I do about 10-15% of the time IN THE RIGHT GAME), I'd raise with it. The large majority of the time, when an unpaired hand improves it does so by pairing up one or both of its cards. About 1/3 of the time, you will make a pair of Queens or Jacks -- but can you be comfortable with it? About 1/3 of the time an ace or king will come. Are you facing a pair of A's or K's? Out of position, its expensive to find out. If you're playing for the times you hit a straight or flush, you need lots of players with you to give you the pot odds you need to flop a worthwhile draw, and you need to play cheaply (you won't get the actual pot odds you need, but you're counting on implied odds, which are completely messed up if you are playing for more than one bet before the flop). Unless your game is full of weak passive players, I don't see how it can be profitable to play QJs UTG by open-limping.

Granted, you are getting even worse odds by open-raising UTG. I advocate this only as a variant play, and that only in a game where most players are paying attention to what you play. In this case, a substantial portion of the profitability of the hand comes from your opponents willingness to call your power hands with dominated hands in the hope that all they're up against is QJs or the like, while another portion of profitability comes from the opponents who fold better hands on the idea that they are up against some powerhouse I hold.

Thanks for the response Michael.

I've found QJs UTG to be +ev in games that are unusually passive, slightly passive or break even. I dump if the game is aggressive at all.

As far as my post-flop play, I don't really know what kind of response I'm looking for. I think I mainly just lost focus, as well as that little voice that pops in my head every once in a while, "Hey worse comes to worse, it will be great advertising." I need to find that voice and kick its @%#. Advertising on its own is not worth 2.5BB.

Thanks,
Jamie

BB says, "Well I would have called you if the King hadn't come." and mucks his hand.
Don't know what he had. I think he mucked a 2 which if that's true he played his hand worse than mine.

I don't think the results are important because I played it so poorly. I think my pre-flop and river plays might be debatable. Maybe it's not a good question because most don't screw up a hand so badly but who bets the river here?

Thanks for the responses,
Jamie

[Boris]

How can you say that this hand does not have a positive expectation UTG?

[Boris]

IMO -

Your pre-flop and river plays were OK. It's your flop call that is the most questionable. even your call on the flop isn't so bad (but not so great either) since that the button is weak tight, essentially giving you last action.

[Kevin J]

I'm not so sure you played this hand as badly as you think.

Pre-flop, QJs should be playable in most games.

On a flop of 952 rainbow, I don't think it's completely unreasonable to assume QJc might have 6 outs. Don't forget about your runner-runner draws. Raising or folding may have been better, and I don't like the button still to act, but if calling is likely to cause this opponent to check the next round, it can't be that bad.

I think the turn depends on an accurate assessment of which one of you needs a free card AND/OR whether your opponent will fold a better hand if you bet. The second five doesn't figure to have helped your hand, but if he's the type of opponent who would bet the flop with overcards and now check and fold, I like your bet.

On the river, it looks like your only win is to bet. Although it must look pretty suspicious to your opponent how you can value bet through the king with anything less than A9s. Still, I can't fault you too hard for trying.

Bottom line: I've seen worse played hands. You should watch me sometime /forums/images/icons/crazy.gif

[Kevin J]

My fault for not reading your post thoroughly. For some reason I assumed you raised pre-flop. I think someone else mentioned this and I had that stuck in my head while posting my comments. I just re-read your original post and noticed that no one raised pre-flop. This changes things because you now are only getting 4 to 1 on a call and should probably have some reason to feel you might have the best hand.

Then again, you'll catch your opponent semi-bluffing a worse hand often enough to where I still don't think it's that bad. IMO

[Kevin J]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
Not sure what limit this is at but for my money, this hand does not have a positive expectation in early position. I would suggest folding this hand pre-flop most of the time unless the game is unusually passive with many players seeing the flop AND you have a good read on the table.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I avoid the circuit YOU play in. There has been maybe 10 hours (out of the last 500), where the game was such that I would throw away QJs. Then again, public card rooms almost always offer good games even at the 20-40 level. /forums/images/icons/cool.gif