Hand for analysis please [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

jenson

03-01-2005, 09:21 AM

Hi All,

A hand from a $11 SNG on UB that I would like to get some opinions on.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t2025)
BB (t1015)
UTG (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t990)
MP3 (t1020)
CO (Villain #1) (t965)
Button (t985)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t50, 3 folds, CO (Villain #1) calls t50, 3 folds.

Flop: (t115) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t115, Villain #1 calls t115.

Turn: (t345) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets t200, Villain #1 calls t200.

River: (t745) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain #1 bets t600 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1345

My thoughts:
1. My pre-flop raise of 5 X BB in UTG +1 is good.

2. Flop comes with scare cards. My pot size bet should drive out Villain if he has nothing. He calls so he either has Q or flush draw.

3. Turn brings a heart. Well if he is chasing a flush we'll find out now. My bet here is a little week but I really don't want to waste anymore on this hand because I may already be beat. On the other hand if he has a flush draw I still want him to fold.

4. I check the river and he goes All-In. I know it's weak but I figure I must be beat at this point. He may have had Q the whole time. On the other hand he may have been tempted to call my weak Turn bet and is bluffing on my check on the river.

Questions:
1. Should I have bet on the Turn? If so, what amount?
2. What are the chances he is bluffing on the River? In retrospect I think his All-In bet is too large. Why not value bet here if you really have a Q?
3. Any other thoughts are appreciated.

Jman28

03-01-2005, 09:39 AM

1. My pre-flop raise of 5 X BB in UTG +1 is good.

I agree

2. Flop comes with scare cards. My pot size bet should drive out Villain if he has nothing. He calls so he either has Q or flush draw.

Or an 8 or 88. or AK, AJ, etc? Players can be bad.

3. Turn brings a heart. Well if he is chasing a flush we'll find out now. My bet here is a little week but I really don't want to waste anymore on this hand because I may already be beat. On the other hand if he has a flush draw I still want him to fold.

I like your bet. You can't give up yet. Only two of you took the flop, so he may be playing with a weak hand. However, this bet does not make bad players fold flush draws. It doesn't make all good players fold them either.

4. I check the river and he goes All-In. I know it's weak but I figure I must be beat at this point. He may have had Q the whole time. On the other hand he may have been tempted to call my weak Turn bet and is bluffing on my check on the river.

He played it like a Q or flush draw, or possibly 88. If he's bad, he could have many more hands. You only have to win 1/3 of the time to make a call here profitable. I'd do it because of that and because of curiousity.

I think the hand is well played on all streets except the river. I'd make the call.

-Jman28