Is There Any Point in Betting this KK?

[jimdmcevoy]

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG+2 ($107.80)
MP1 ($71.55)
MP2 ($33.40)
MP3 ($353.55)
CO ($153.15)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($49.40)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($118.95)</font>
BB ($77.65)
UTG ($139.60)
UTG+1 ($16.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls $1, CO calls $1, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $6.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls $14.

Flop: ($45) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($45) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($45) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $45

[sourbeaver]

Worst, you've got another customer !

[sawseech]

no because value bets dont exist in my world

[TrailofTears]

Not even the river? Come on, he checked behind twice. Either he doesn't like money, or he has a lower PP. I think it's no. 2.

[istewart]

He won't call with it.

[sourbeaver]

Then I'd bet earlier.

[istewart]

I'm not disputing that, but I think betting this river is pointless.

[jimdmcevoy]

My reason for my check-check-check was that I was trying to catch a bluff. What can he put me on to call any bet I make?

[TrailofTears]

So don't bet. All of us have been called down by worse hands than JJ or TT on a board with overs. Even a small bet? I definitely bet here, because I want more money.

[hukilai]

(newbie): Why not bet $5 on the river?

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Worst, you've got another customer !

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup. Bet the flop. Won't you feel like an idiot when he catches his third 8 on the turn?

[jimdmcevoy]

betting $5 on the river is a pretty good play, I will probably get called by any pair.

But if there's even a 30% chance he will bluff the river if checked too, then checking maximizes EV. I guess this is why I posted this hand, I was not sure the chance he would bluff this river if checked to 3 times.

[sourbeaver]

That's not a bad reason at all.
But a bet on the flop might take it down right there, which is always better than giving him infinite odds to catch.

[jimdmcevoy]

On the flop I hadn't yet decided if I was goin to the felt, I may have folded, so I checked to see what he would do.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
betting $5 on the river is a pretty good play, I will probably get called by any pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are you kidding? Heres a quiz:

1. Which hand re-raises preflop, checks on the flop and turn with an A a Q and a flush draw on the board?
A. KK
B. KK
C. KK
D. KK
E. All of the above

Why don't you just turn your cards over? Betting $5 on the river is going to get a call from an ace, a fold from a pansy, and a raise from any decent player.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I hadn't yet decided if I was goin to the felt, I may have folded, so I checked to see what he would do.

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm...take free cards with his 34s? Nice of you to wait for him to 'bluff' the river with his free straight. The thing that you seem to be missing here is that, despite the ace on the flop, there is a very good chance that you still have the best hand. So bet. If you don't bet, you get no value and he gets to draw for free. It is very possible that you have the best hand but he has outs against you. That is the definition of when you NEED to bet.

[jimdmcevoy]

You think he raised preflop on the button with a suited connecter with many limpers, called my re-reraise of almost half his stack, and is smart enough to not chunk in $5 if he has a pair on the river?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Yes? But it really doesn't matter because you definitely should not have checked the flop and the turn.

Edit: More importantly, what hand range do you put villain on here? And what would you do if your $5 bet got raised on the river? I assume call, since you are expecting him to bluff and that sure looks like a bluff. But are you happy calling a raise here? If you would fold, that is just terrible. The way you played this hand put you in this mess. You earn the least, charge draws nothing, and lose the most when you are behind because you are expecting him to bluff. What if he bets the turn? I assume you are calling? What if he bets again on the river?

[edge]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I hadn't yet decided if I was goin to the felt, I may have folded, so I checked to see what he would do.

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm...take free cards with his 34s? Nice of you to wait for him to 'bluff' the river with his free straight. The thing that you seem to be missing here is that, despite the ace on the flop, there is a very good chance that you still have the best hand. So bet. If you don't bet, you get no value and he gets to draw for free. It is very possible that you have the best hand but he has outs against you. That is the definition of when you NEED to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I probably bet this flop too, since I almost always follow up preflop aggression, but if I think about it more carefully, the only hand you're beating here is JJ. If you bet this flop and get called, you have to check/fold.

Again, of course, player reads, etc., but what hands would a typical Button in a $0.5/1 game (I haven't played UB, but I don't imagine it to be too different from other sites) raise against limpers? AA-JJ, AKo-AQo, AKs-AJs. On this flop, you beat JJ, and he will probably call or raise with all other hands. I don't think checking is terrible, and Button flipped JJ or AJ.

Being out of position with this hand means you lose, even if you're ahead, because you have to fold if he bets, calls, or raises. You might as well be holding 32o, because your hand can't stand heat, and you're basically hoping he folds.

Edit: I didn't notice that he was shortstacked. This makes the hand pretty simple, in my opinion. Button only has enough behind to allow for one bet, so compare KK with his possible range of hands and what he made on that flop, and you can't really bet it. In this case, there's almost no chance you push him off a weaker Ace, so you're only beating Jacks or lower. I probably check and call a push on the flop, but that's because I'm dumb. Check/folding is probably right here.

[jimdmcevoy]

I guess you enjoy paying off AK-AQ-AJ.

I've never seen anyone play a suited connecter like this preflop, I was fairly confident I was either behind or up against a lower pp.

By checking the flop, I figured I might be able to find out which was the case.

Assumming you know he has a lower pocket pair, do you still bet since you are afraid of his two outer?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well, it certainly depends on how you play. But for me to raise (let alone re-raise) and not bet the flop is very strange. If you know that villains hand range is AK-AJ/AA-JJ then fine, hope to check it down and know that you are a big dog on this flop against his hand range and just be happy that he extracted the least. But in the Party 6 max games where I play villain's hand range here is very wide. Especially for an idiot who is willing to call off half his stack preflop.

[jimdmcevoy]

fair nuff

[TheWorstPlayer]

So did you lose to AJ or 34s? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[theredpill5]

Yeah, what were the results ? I can see Jim's side and also TWP's side. Jim, are you still making an obscene amount of money ? I remember you had some killer stats about a month ago.

Have we decided on a decision ? Bet flop or not ?

[jimdmcevoy]

He had 99 and MHIG.

I don't know how much obscene is, but I'm making $22/100 hands at 100NL, and I'm dabbling in 200NL, which I'm up like 10 bucks after 1K hands.