PLO hand, please help !! all-in preflop with big stack???

[Erdnase]

Hi all,

here is a hand I do not feel good about...

PLO on PP, max 100 buy-in. Blinds are .50-1.00, I pick up AAAsTs in the BB. I do not remember the amounts raised, but when it comes back to me, one player had reraised the pot to ca. 25, one LAP called and everyone else folded. I put the reraiser on KK. He has another 80 or so, the LAP has me covered, I have 150.

What is my play here? Obvious muck? Is it sane to reraise, knowing the KK will move in and hoping to lose the LAP? How big a fav am I vs. KKxx? How is my EV vs. two opp., one with KKxx, the other hand unknown but (at least in the opinion of the LAP) good enough for calling 25 cold? LAP likes to play big pots with inferior hands, he is not a very good player, who got a monster stack by getting lucky a few times with pots like this, going in with crap and hitting.

Thoughts? Comments?

Greets, Erd

[Ignatius]

> I pick up AAAsTs in the BB. I do not remember the amounts raised, but when it comes back to me

You should never have called (let alone raised) in the BB. Your half-dead three-card hand has huge negative implied odds esp. when played out of position. Muck now and save yourself the trouble.

> What is my play here? Obvious muck?

Not automatically, as the main reasons for mucking the hand (implied odds and position) are less important as you now have the option of getting 2/3 of your stack in preflop. So it all depends on you read on the reraiser, how often and what hands the LAP will muck and how you rate the chance (if any) to take it down preflop. Still, you would need an almost perfect situation to continue with the hand.

> How big a fav am I vs. KKxx?

You are a guaranteed all-in favorite over kings (as over any other hand heads-up): 2:1 vs. random sidecards and still 7:6 in the worst case of KKQQ double suited)

> How is my EV vs. two opp., one with KKxx

In that case you're anywhere from a 40% favorite to a 25% dog but money-wise, the situation would be much worse as LAP can still get away from the hand (and save the remaining 50) if he completly misses the flop while you are committed. This is enough to turn you from barely break-even into an assured loser if you end up multi-way.

So unless you are pretty sure that a reraise will get LAP to fold - and according to your description, this clearly isn't the case - you should muck.

cu

Ignatius

Dear Erd,
I agree that you hold a very bad hand... but in this situation that bad hand might not be so bad. If your read on the reraiser is right (KKxx or any high-card type hand) then your hand has gotten a lot of value here. What's more, reraising the pot will put you close to all-in and that's exactly what you want with this horrible-looking aces, out of position. Of course you would like the third player to fold (giving $25 dead money, plus if he holds four random cards he can easily beat you by making two pair, a straight etc.), but even if he doesn't fold, your aces will hold up often enough (more than 33.3% of the time in a three-way pot, or if there's a side pot you will be usually be a favorite heads up even with aces this crappy) for this play to be profitable. Still, I don't blame you if you decided to simply flick those three aces into the muck, but in my opinion by doing this you might have wasted a potentially money-making opportunity. Just my thoughts,
Rolf.

[Erdnase]

Hi Rolf,

is that Ace speaking? If you are, we met in Amsterdam, about 2 years ago, slim german kid with glasses, remember?

I hope everything is going well for you, in Amsterdam, Vienna and wherever else you hang out and fleece the fish...lol.

Maybe we will meet again sometime.

Greets, Erd.

PS: if you are not Rolfslootblom, just ignore this.

[Erdnase]

Hi all,

thanks for the replies. They reflected my thoughts at the time pretty well.

I decided to move in, as I thought the LAP would likely fold, and even if not, I could not be that far behind (money favorite wise). The original reraiser called his last 80, unfortunately the LAP moved in as well. Flop came 427 with two spades (my flush), no help on turn or river, I showed my hand.

Fortunately /forums/images/icons/grin.gif LAP mucked his hand, reraiser showed his (KKxx, one suited) and I won a 300+ pot.

Still, I am not pleased with the decision. The table was pretty good, I was a big favorite to make money. So I do not think it a good idea to risk my whole stack in this spot (especially because you can only buy in for another 100 max), where I am a close favorite at best if LAP calls.

But on the other hand, heads-up vs. KKxx, I like to move in here. Problem really was the LAP.

Anyway, I was happy to win...lol.

Greets, Erd.