College Hoops: AP Top 25

[Clarkmeister]

Somewhat interesting post I saw today on a different message board. Obviously doesn't "mean" anything, but parts of it are interesting at least.

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Looking at how the AP Top 25 has done against the AP Top 25, one can see the following:

--Illinois and Syracuse are the only ranked teams without a loss to an unranked opponent.

--Utah and Nevada are the only ranked teams without a win over a ranked team.

If you subtract the number of total losses from the number of wins over ranked teams, you get the following:

+6: Illinois
+1: Boston College
+0: Duke, Wake Forest, Washington
-1: North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Pacific
-2: Louisville, Gonzaga
-3: Oklahoma State, Arizona, Connecticut, Villanova, Oklahoma, Charlotte
-4: Michigan State, Syracuse, Utah, Pittsburgh
-5: Alabama, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Nevada

Here are the top 5 in margin of victory vs. other ranked teams:
1. Illinois: +15
2. Duke: +5
3. Kansas: +4
4. Louisville: +3
5. Villanova: +2

Here are the top 5 in average points scored against ranked teams:
1. Washington: 85
2. Duke: 84
3. Gonzaga: 83
4. Charlotte: 83
5. Wake Forest: 82

Here are the top 5 in points allowed against ranked teams:
1. Illinois: 64
2. Louisville: 65
3. Boston College: 68
4. Wisconsin: 69
5. Kansas: 69

Here is more detail, by team:

1. Illinois (no ranked left)
6-0 vs. ranked (2-0 at home); no unranked losses

2. North Carolina (1 ranked left: 3/6 vs. Duke)
2-2 vs. ranked (1-0 at home); 1 unranked loss (1 away)

3. Kentucky (no ranked left)
2-2 vs. ranked (0-1 at home); 1 unranked loss (1 away)

4. Wake Forest (no ranked left)
4-2 vs. ranked (2-0 at home); 2 unranked losses (2 away)

5. Boston College (1 ranked left: 2/28 vs. Pittsburgh)
3-1 vs. ranked (2-0 at home); 1 unranked loss (1 away)

6. Duke (1 ranked left: 3/6 at North Carolina)
4-1 vs. ranked (3-0 at home); 3 unranked losses (2 away)

7. Kansas (no ranked left)
4-2 vs. ranked (3-0 at home); 2 unranked losses (1 away)

8. Oklahoma State (no ranked left)
2-3 vs. ranked (1-1 at home); 2 unranked losses (2 away)

9. Louisville (1ranked left: 3/3 vs. Charlotte)
2-1 vs. ranked (1-1 at home); 3 unranked losses (1 away)

10. Washington (no ranked left)
4-2 vs. ranked (1-0 at home); 2 unranked losses (2 away)

11. Arizona (no ranked left)
2-2 vs. ranked (2-0 at home); 3 unranked losses (2 away)

12. Gonzaga (no ranked left)
2-1 vs. ranked (1-0 at home); 3 unranked losses (3 away)

13. Syracuse (1 ranked left: 3/5 at Connecticut)
1-5 vs. ranked (0-2 at home); no unranked losses

14. Michigan State (no ranked left)
1-3 vs. ranked (1-1 at home); 1 unranked loss (1 away)

15. Connecticut (1 ranked left: 3/5 vs. Syracuse)
3-4 vs. ranked (1-3 at home); 2 unranked losses (2 away)

16. Utah (no ranked left)
0-2 vs. ranked (0-0 at home); 2 unranked losses (2 away)

17. Pacific (no ranked left)
1-1 vs. ranked (0-0 at home); 1 unranked loss (0 away)

18. Charlotte (1 ranked left: 3/3 at Louisville)
1-2 vs. ranked (1-1 at home); 2 unranked losses (1 away)

19. Villanova (no ranked left)
3-3 vs. ranked (3-1 at home); 3 unranked losses (2 away)

20. Oklahoma (no ranked left)
3-3 vs. ranked (3-0 at home); 3 unranked losses (2 away)

21. Alabama (no ranked left)
1-3 vs. ranked (0-1 at home); 3 unranked losses (3 away)

22. Cincinnati (no ranked left)
1-5 vs. ranked (1-2 at home); 1 unranked loss (1 away)

23. Wisconsin (no ranked left)
2-3 vs. ranked (2-1 at home); 4 unranked losses (4 away)

24. Pittsburgh (1 ranked left: 2/28 at Boston College)
3-2 vs. ranked (1-1 at home); 5 unranked losses (2 away)

25. Nevada (no ranked left)
0-2 vs. ranked (0-1 at home); 3 unranked losses (1 away)

[BottlesOf]

I feel like we run into a sample size issue what with the few games a team played against ranked opponents. Maybe?

[nolanfan34]

Any excuse to point out stats that show how much Illinois is pwning people, eh? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Shajen]

nice work. I seriously hope Ill makes it really deep (like championship game) or I'm afraid Clark may have a coronary.

That said, go Devils /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Dead]

Syracuse pwns.

They will pwn Illinois. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Syracuse pwns.

They will pwn Illinois. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

C'mon now. What would the spread on that game be, assuming it's in the Chicago regional? 13?

Illinois' outstanding outside shooting with many threats might make them the worlds worst matchup for the Orange.

1-5 vs ranked teams. How nice. And they are going to beat the Illini in Chicago? If you say so. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Any excuse to point out stats that show how much Illinois is pwning people, eh? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I feel this team is not at all getting its just due.

[mmbt0ne]

A little aside. GT is somehow still getting votes in both polls. If they beat Clemson, and at least have a respectable showing against Wake, how many games do they have to win in the tourney to make the dance?

At 8-8 in the ACC they'll finish no worse than tied for 5th, and will probably be 4th with VT and UMD (with the same overall record as UMD, and a better one than VT) depending on how everything comes together. I'm thinking 2 games definitely gets them in.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any excuse to point out stats that show how much Illinois is pwning people, eh? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I feel this team is not at all getting its just due.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, because they lack that one NBA-star-in-waiting superstar who's easily marketable for the the media. There's no Tim Duncan, no Carmelo, no Emeka Okefor on this team.

Not that there aren't guys on the team that will make the NBA, but you know what I mean.

[riffraff]

The line in the tourny will be ILL-8.5 and SYR will win outright. You have to remember Dave, it's all fixed. I know you haven't learned that yet, lol. For that reason I think you probably want them to lose once before the tourny starts.. make them look like they can be beaten.

I have SYR at 18-1 and MSU at 40-1.

Spartians look great.. except for losing to Indiana last night.. blah

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
The line in the tourny will be ILL-8.5 and SYR will win outright. You have to remember Dave, it's all fixed. I know you haven't learned that yet, lol. For that reason I think you probably want them to lose once before the tourny starts.. make them look like they can be beaten.

I have SYR at 18-1 and MSU at 40-1.

Spartians look great.. except for losing to Indiana last night.. blah

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bet you $100 that the line is higher than 8.5 should Illinois and Syracuse meet in Chicago in the NCAA Tournament.

I have $100 on IL at 10-1. I like that a whole lot more than your bets. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

As far as losing once, that's hogwash. I'd rather they be so good that they don't lose, as opposed to not being good enough to go undefeated.

[Clarkmeister]

They can certainly get in, but at this point it's going to be close. Don't forget how the field of at large teams really starts to shrink if upsets occur in the mid-major tournaments. For example, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are in. If neither wins the WCC, then that's one less at large bid for the bubble teams. Same with SIU in the MVC. There are other examples too (Pacific). Pray for chalk to win the small automatic bid tourneys to help maximize your chances.

[riffraff]

Good luck with that go undefeated/win NCAA tourny dream season. Red Sox won last year so why not? heh

10-1? When the hell did you make that wager? I like it better than mine too. MSU at 40-1 is pretty good tho.

The 8.5 I was joking about but it will be lower than you think. If it does indeed come out at 13.5 then I'd suspect the outcome of the game will be as you desire.

How many people told you the Lakers would stomp the Pistons last year? I had $200 on Det at +450 and that was easy money =) Not that that has anything to do with this discussion but ... well you know.

[MEbenhoe]

I think this just proves that Duke knows how to win big games. That will bode well come tourney time.

Sorry if you're gonna pump the Illini I gotta throw in some love for my Blue Devils /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Clarkmeister]

I give them love, had them at #5 overall. I just think that the gap between Illinois, North Carolina, and everyone else is massive.

Basically:
Illinois > UNC
UNC >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #'s 3-30
#'3-30 not very differentiated.

[MEbenhoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I give them love, had them at #5 overall. I just think that the gap between Illinois, North Carolina, and everyone else is massive.

Basically:
Illinois > UNC
UNC >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #'s 3-30
#'3-30 not very differentiated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your math is fuzzy:

UNC = Duke

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
I give them love, had them at #5 overall. I just think that the gap between Illinois, North Carolina, and everyone else is massive.

Basically:
Illinois > UNC
UNC >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #'s 3-30
#'3-30 not very differentiated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go Heels /images/graemlins/grin.gif

If you look just a bit outside of the ranked teams to the bubble teams NC State, Ga Tech, Maryland, and the like, then UNC has a lot of quality wins against some pretty stiff competition.

I sure hope McCants comes back strong this week. Hate to lose arguably your best player at such a crucial time.

With him they definitely have the full package that could win the crown this year. I haven't seen Illinois this year beyond a few minutes, but everything I've read, and their record, clearly indicate they have the full package this year too. Very, very impressive showing so far.

B.