I'm a thief

[PokerBob]

Party 2/4. No read on villain.

Hero is Button and open raises with A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, SB folds, BB 3-bets. Hero calls.

Flop (2 players) (6.5 SB)
A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, hero calls.

Turn (2 players) (4.25 BB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, hero caps, BB calls.

River (2 players) (12.25 BB) Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
BB bets, hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero????????

[einbert]

I'm capping but if you're seriously thinking of just calling, I don't think it's that much different.

[jason_t]

Hero caps.

[Evan]

Cap the river, especialy since you can't get 5 bet. He has TT A LOT of the time (nice suckout).

To whoever posted before me and said that there isn't a difference between calling and capping, do you really think this guy has axactly AQ (3 cominations) 50% of the time?

[einbert]

Well I didn't phrase that very well I guess. I didn't notice that he had "no read on villian" but I think you would have to have some read to consider just calling here, and if you have a read strong enough to consider just calling then calling and capping are probably close in EV. Against an unknown capping is much stronger.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm capping but if you're seriously thinking of just calling, I don't think it's that much different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is ahead of 44/TT/QQ/Ax and behind 3 combinations of AQ. Cap, and it's not even close.

[Evan]

What read would that be?

The guy could not have flopped the nuts or had the nuts on the turn, so if he's a super tight rock we are definitely ahead. Anyone that can do this with less than the second nuts is getting capped.

[einbert]

Yeah I agree with you that it's a pretty clear cap. Not sure why it was posted, I guess it was some sort of joke or something.

[Trix]

cap vs unknown

[spamuell]

Does no one else raise the flop?

If your opponent has JJ-KK, they're not getting away from it if you raise the flop but they might do if you wait until the turn to raise.

There's only one combination of AA or TT each, but if they just have a big ace they're fairly likely to either 3-bet the flop or call and then bet the turn or try to check-raise the turn even, I think I'd raise the flop here.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
cap vs unknown

[/ QUOTE ]
Is there anyone that you would not cap against?

[imported_stealthcow]

if i was playing agianst myself, i'd go to 7-8 bets

[spoohunter]

Someone who has that look about them. The, well, my hand is too good to ditch, to good to just call with so I'll probably just go to two bets on the river... oh holy jesus get my tipping hand ready... ship it I got the nuts... i deserve it anyway I had the better hand preflop. You know, that look. You've seen it before.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4

[/ QUOTE ]

[spoohunter]

"
Is there anyone that you would not cap against? "

[Evan]

Um, okay. Is there anyone you wouldn't cap against if you were playing the hand?

[spoohunter]

The point of this forum and this board is to teach how different concepts apply to different situations as well as how similiar concepts apply to different situations.

Obviously, this is a cap vs an unknown online player, as well as most live players. There are, however, live, some players who will not be three betting the third nuts here, and also, some players that "tell you" they just got there. Just don't mistake their hand for QQ.

[Fat Nicky]

easiest.cap.ever.

[edtost]

easy, easy cap. without one, 6-bet and call the 7th.

[Trix]

Someone who wont 3bet less than AQ /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anyone that you would not cap against?

[/ QUOTE ]

Plenty.

[sthief09]

I don't like waiting for the turn to raise in general. I do it sometimes just because I use it as a semibluff a lot

[QTip]

I almost lose my house on this hand....

That said, was there any math involved in your "6th and call 7th" or was that more of a "twice on Sundays" comment?

Just curious.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4. No read on villain.

Hero is Button and open raises with A /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, SB folds, BB 3-bets. Hero calls.

Flop (2 players) (6.5 SB)
A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB bets, hero calls.

Turn (2 players) (4.25 BB) A /images/graemlins/heart.gif
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, hero caps, BB calls.

River (2 players) (12.25 BB) Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
BB bets, hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero????????

[/ QUOTE ]

I kinda feel that this was a dumb post now that the majority said cap, but I just felt I was beat. That said, I DID cap and was promptly show the nuts. I knew it. PBob bad.

[QTip]

too bad...

anyone know a good place to rent with enough space for a wife and 2 kids...

[edtost]

at some point, the 66% mark of how often you're good when two more bets go in is crossed. i think 6/7 is usually a good aproximation, against an unknown opponent.

[QTip]

Never heard of that before...did you read that somewhere?

[edtost]

well, think about it. if you always get reraised when behind and never when you're ahead, you need to be good > 2/3's of the time for a raise to be +ev. i guess the 66% number is incorrect here (because you get reraised some %age when you have the best hand), but the important part is that it's greater than 50%.

[QTip]

hhhmmm...still trying to apply this to the situation.

I think I understand what you're saying.

1. I bet he calls - I win 1 bet
2. I bet he calls - I win 1 more bet to total 2 bets
3. I bet he raises I call - I lose 2 bets and break even.

How does this equate to going to 6 reraises?

I'm more than a bit dense with these types of concepts, so have mercy...I'd really like to understand it.

[Evan]

I don't understand. Anyone that I feel is so tight that this could only be the nuts would not have gone 3 bets on the turn I don't think. Disagree?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand. Anyone that I feel is so tight that this could only be the nuts would not have gone 3 bets on the turn I don't think. Disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]

There's an information flow happening between the turn and river since hero capped the turn and the villain is still spraying. There are lots of players who would 3-bet big Aces on the turn but would check/call the river unimproved. For example you, Josh, JBB, Brad, etc.

Against your typical verging on overaggro Party 2/4 donk, however, I would cap too.

[tetonpete]

i think the point is that every time you are reraised in this situation the unlikely hand that beats you becomes more likely, until it becomes unprofitable to continue to raise. With no cap, if i were 5 bet i'd just call. But I would definitely cap this. I think that the fact that it's a steal situation makes almost any A possible. It's not like he woke up when the Q came. Usually you are way ahead, results notwithstanding.

[edtost]

6 was the number i picked where the probabilities of his holdings get to the point where you no longer make enough from hands you beat to make up for the 2 more bb you lose when behind. depending on the opponent, this number could be higher or lower.

[tetonpete]

just to beat this horse a little more, i think this number depends much more on the opponent than on anything else, but in all likelihood doesn't exceed 6 or 7 no matter what the fucktard quotient of your opponment is /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[edtost]

[ QUOTE ]
i think this number depends much more on the opponent than on anything else

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree.

[ QUOTE ]
but in all likelihood doesn't exceed 6 or 7 no matter what the fucktard quotient of your opponment is

[/ QUOTE ]

you've obviously never read a mike l. post

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]
i think the point is that every time you are reraised in this situation the unlikely hand that beats you becomes more likely, until it becomes unprofitable to continue to raise. With no cap, if i were 5 bet i'd just call. But I would definitely cap this. I think that the fact that it's a steal situation makes almost any A possible. It's not like he woke up when the Q came. Usually you are way ahead, results notwithstanding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this thinking and play it exactly the same.


Tom

[DemonDeac]

[ QUOTE ]


That said, I DID cap and was promptly show the nuts. I knew it. PBob bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

the nuts, huh?? so he shows you AA. somethings wrong here???

j/k.....tough break. i'd play it the same way

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


That said, I DID cap and was promptly show the nuts. I knew it. PBob bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

the nuts, huh?? so he shows you AA. somethings wrong here???

j/k.....tough break. i'd play it the same way

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have AT, the nuts on a board of AAQT4 is AQ.

[tetonpete]

i haven't read one, but i'd like to. Can you post a link?

[frank_iii]

[ QUOTE ]
I kinda feel that this was a dumb post now that the majority said cap, but I just felt I was beat. That said, I DID cap and was promptly show the nuts. I knew it. PBob bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, what was your read on the player after sitting for a few more orbits?

[tetonpete]

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have AT, the nuts on a board of AAQT4 is AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
do you see why? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[edtost]

here (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1217542&page=&view=&s b=5&o=&vc=1) is an example.

[tetonpete]

thanks ed...i would like to say I think that there is a difference in a 7+ bet scenario preflop, although i suppose at some theoretical point the likelihood of AA vs AA reaches near certainty. I was asking myself what the difference was in reraising until there are no chips left and just going all in, and realized that with every raise and reraise, you gain information. On an all in bet, you are essentially saying you don't need any more. You are also holding some fold equity if in fact you are behind, but made the bet. In a 5 bet situation, neither raiser holds any meaningful fold equity.

Anyhow, i'm done babbling...thanks for the link

[2000Flushes]

Your hand doesn't even matter, if he has AQ he has the nuts, only difference is you could also have the nuts and tie.

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
6 was the number i picked where the probabilities of his holdings get to the point where you no longer make enough from hands you beat to make up for the 2 more bb you lose when behind. depending on the opponent, this number could be higher or lower.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post.
-James