Hand VS. Two Uber Calling Stations

[Nick709]

All comments appreciated.
UTG and CO will call to the river with any low draw, made low, made PAIR.

Party Poker 5/10 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.40 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.20 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (7.20 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9.20 BB

[Buzz]

Nick - I'm wondering why you bet the turn. You have no very good chance for high and you need one of only 16 cards (out of 44) to win half the pot (or might only be a quarter of the pot).

Buzz

[wgarvin]

I would guess that Nick's hand is high for the moment quite a lot of the time - maybe 50-60% at least. A low-enabling card gives him scoop possibilities. I would bet this turn for value and to charge indifferent high draws. Against good opponents I would also bet in the expectation that some of the time that will take the pot, but that consideration would seem not to apply in the game he is describing.
On a separate point, Buzz, do you limp along in EMP with this type of A2 hand (some high potential but nothing outstanding) or narrow the field with a raise. I would be tempted to limp, I think, and to reserve a raise for LPs where I can collar the blind money and play head-to-head.

[chaos]

In a full game, I generally limp with my weak A2 hands.

The short handed games I play in are more aggressive, and people generally open the betting with a raise, so I raise with a weak A2 in these games.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would guess that Nick's hand is high for the moment quite a lot of the time - maybe 50-60% at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

wgarvin - Possibly.

He only has two opponents, - but neither was a blind. UTG+1 limped and then limped for the raise. CO cold-called the double bet before the flop. Then they both call a bet after the flop.

Hard to say what they have. Do we give them credit for knowing the game or not?

Either one of them could have a ten or an over-pair. There are only two opponents, but it seems like they should have better than random starting hands, UTG+1 because of playing a hand from early position, CO because of cold-calling the double bet pre-flop.

I'll run some sims the next time I get a chance. I'll run a 10000 times two opponents with random cards sim and then a 10000 times three opponents with random cards sims.

That whole last paragraph doesn't look right to me, but maybe you get the idea.

[ QUOTE ]
A low-enabling card gives him scoop possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll run the sims and then maybe we'll have a better idea. Doesn't seem to me that Hero has a bettable hand after the turn, but maybe I'm wrong. (He has a callable hand, but not a bettable hand, IMHO).

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet this turn for value and to charge indifferent high draws. Against good opponents I would also bet in the expectation that some of the time that will take the pot, but that consideration would seem not to apply in the game he is describing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard for me to say, with the information given, if UTG+1 and/or CO know the game well or not. (UTG+1 does fold to Hero's turn bet).

[ QUOTE ]
On a separate point, Buzz, do you limp along in EMP with this type of A2 hand (some high potential but nothing outstanding) or narrow the field with a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

For me, rightly or wrongly, it depends on the field more than the exact cards in my hand. I don't think this is a very good starting hand. It has an ace, deuce , and king, all of which are nice. But there's that pesky seven and the hand is a rainbow. I don't like rainbow starting hands. But don't get me wrong... I'm going to generally see the flop with the hand. It's just that I think it's kind of mediocre. I'd guess it's primarily a low hand. That is, if we run a 10000 deal simulation against eight opponents with random hands and an unspecified board, I think it will win for low more than it will scoop or win for high. I'll run that sim too the next time I get a chance.

[ QUOTE ]
I would be tempted to limp, I think, and to reserve a raise for LPs where I can collar the blind money and play head-to-head.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems reasonable.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[djr]

Buzz...what do you use for your sims?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz...what do you use for your sims?

[/ QUOTE ]

djr -

Turbo Omaha
High-Low Split
for Windows

Wilson Software
1997-1999

It's slow as molasses in January on my Mac, but I have a friend with a fast Dell in his office, and he seems happy to let me use his computer to run the sims. But I don't want to wear out my welcome and wait for him to invite me.

I'll see him Wednesday, and he'll probably invite me for Thursday or Friday - something like that - and then I'll spend four to six hours running sims.

You can stack the deck, meaning you can put any particular cards you want on the board or in any hand.

And you can use any number of players up to ten. For the players, you can choose different characters with different playing styles to sit in the various seats. Different hands play differently and fare differently against different line-ups. I use a line-up of all Painless Potter characters to run sims when I don't want any of the random hands to fold before the showdown.

I usually specify 10000 deals and with a full table, a sim takes about two minutes. At a short-handed table a sim takes even less time.

And then you get all sorts of data.

It's really neat.

My friend likes to play against the various computer characters, but whatever the line-up it's pretty easy to show a win and not meaningful for me. However the sims are fantastic.

Buzz

[Nick709]

[ QUOTE ]
Nick - I'm wondering why you bet the turn. You have no very good chance for high and you need one of only 16 cards (out of 44) to win half the pot (or might only be a quarter of the pot).

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Buzz, as I was trying to get across these two players are really bad. I bet the turn to maybe fold 88xx, or 99xx even though I knew JJ-AA wasn't folding and a ten was raising. I beleive against those two players I am ahead about 50% of the time, so it was somewhat a value bet also.
I was just wondering if anyone else would have played it the same way, I seem to have gotten a lot more aggressive in these games lately.
I raised preflop with this hand because I wanted to thin the feild and possibly play with the uberloose limper heads up, the other ATM at the table calling didn't at all bother me.

[Buzz]

Nick - The turn bet makes perfect sense to me now.

Buzz

[Buzz]

I wrote that I'd run the sims. There really wasn't any question in my mind about Nick's play except I didn't understand why he bet the turn. (But now I do). I ran these five days ago and then procrastinated doing anything with the data. At any rate, here is the result of the sim on the turn.

hand 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif - board T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
10000 runs, two calling stations with random hands.

Hero won high with two pairs 1918 and lost high with two pairs 7187.
Hero won high with trips 432 and lost high with trips 463. That was both trip sevens and trip tens. (There’s no break-down between them).

Thus against two opponents with random cards, Hero only won for high, including ties, 2350/10000 while losing for high 7650/10000. This includes both scoops and wins for high only.

Against two opponents with random cards, Hero (with A27K/T74T) won low outright 3466/10000 and tied for low another 349/10000. Some of the 349/10000 are quarters and some sixths. I could figure out how many of each, but it doesn't matter much here.

Overall, Hero scooped 1672/10000, won for low only 1521/10000, and won for high only (318.42)/10000. The totals here are adjusted so that an outright win for low with an opponent winning for high is worth 0.50 while tying for low with one opponent is worth 0.25. The overall total, 3511.42/10000 is slightly better than the random hands, which averaged 3244.29/10000.

It could be argued that the two opponents here probably had better than random hands. Thus Hero’s hand looks poor on the turn, despite the nut low draw. Still, it's not as bad as it originally seemed to me.

Hero's hand/board did well in the sims after the flop and on the river. On the river, with the nut low, Hero won low outright 8464/10000 and tied for low 1536/10000. Some of the 1536/10000 are quarters and some sixths.

Buzz