Bytestream
02-28-2005, 04:47 AM
For the first 30k hands (I know this is a "small sample") in PT, I have a Won$AtSD of 51.19%
For the next 7k hands, I have only won at SD a paultry 46.3%. This run started last Sunday, and I have been (or at least felt) that I have been dealt an abnormal amount of bad beats. It seems that if there is a river card that can beat me, it hits. Im down over 150BB. I know swings of this nature are natural and to be expected.
To confirm whether this is just a bad run or a fundamental change in my game (or that I was just lucky previously) I've been pouring over stats and replaying hands. This stat seemed the most significant, and was just wondering if is a good indicator of a bad run. Its hard to believe that I am still playing good while bleeding away $1000.
Also, my stats with AK for these 7k hands are substantially lower then for the first 30k hands:
AKs 22 times, 36% win, down $137
AKo 60 times, 52% win, down $16
AQs 22 times, 64% win, up $143 ( too good to be true? )
AQo 67 times, 45% win, down $110
If I assume that the normal showdown win is 51% (equal to my previous results) then I should have won about 5% more hands on the river. PT says I went to showdown about 568 times during these 7k hands. So I should have won about 30 more pots. If these pots averaged 6BB each (I think thats a low estimate) then that would put me closer to my previous winrate and this is just a hellish run and things will feel better when its over...
However, thats assuming one should be winning at least 51% of showdowns over the long haul, is that accurate? What do some of you guys with a couple hundred thou hands have for a win%? Also what is you winrate for AKs, AKo, AQo if you dont mind me asking?
Edit:
Also, other then just getting clobbered by the deck, what factors can cause such a deviation in the Win$SD stat? I would assume that tighting up a bit would increase the percentage (but not nessecarily win more $$) and that loosing up and calling down too much, would then make the percentage decrease... My VP$IP for both sets of figures is remarkably the same, 21%.
My when folds hands stats are almost exactly the same, except for on the flop which was 9.19% for the first 30k hands and now down to 6.51% for the last 7k hands.
I figure this could either be a leak that I've developed, paying more bets on the flop then I used to? Or it could just be an normal fluctuation for a sample this size?
What is the flop fold percent for some of you guys?
For the next 7k hands, I have only won at SD a paultry 46.3%. This run started last Sunday, and I have been (or at least felt) that I have been dealt an abnormal amount of bad beats. It seems that if there is a river card that can beat me, it hits. Im down over 150BB. I know swings of this nature are natural and to be expected.
To confirm whether this is just a bad run or a fundamental change in my game (or that I was just lucky previously) I've been pouring over stats and replaying hands. This stat seemed the most significant, and was just wondering if is a good indicator of a bad run. Its hard to believe that I am still playing good while bleeding away $1000.
Also, my stats with AK for these 7k hands are substantially lower then for the first 30k hands:
AKs 22 times, 36% win, down $137
AKo 60 times, 52% win, down $16
AQs 22 times, 64% win, up $143 ( too good to be true? )
AQo 67 times, 45% win, down $110
If I assume that the normal showdown win is 51% (equal to my previous results) then I should have won about 5% more hands on the river. PT says I went to showdown about 568 times during these 7k hands. So I should have won about 30 more pots. If these pots averaged 6BB each (I think thats a low estimate) then that would put me closer to my previous winrate and this is just a hellish run and things will feel better when its over...
However, thats assuming one should be winning at least 51% of showdowns over the long haul, is that accurate? What do some of you guys with a couple hundred thou hands have for a win%? Also what is you winrate for AKs, AKo, AQo if you dont mind me asking?
Edit:
Also, other then just getting clobbered by the deck, what factors can cause such a deviation in the Win$SD stat? I would assume that tighting up a bit would increase the percentage (but not nessecarily win more $$) and that loosing up and calling down too much, would then make the percentage decrease... My VP$IP for both sets of figures is remarkably the same, 21%.
My when folds hands stats are almost exactly the same, except for on the flop which was 9.19% for the first 30k hands and now down to 6.51% for the last 7k hands.
I figure this could either be a leak that I've developed, paying more bets on the flop then I used to? Or it could just be an normal fluctuation for a sample this size?
What is the flop fold percent for some of you guys?